Member Info for MountTeide

Some thoughts after re-reading the latest presentation and using the data content to carry out some back of an envelope idle speculation.

Montara Field - Feb 2019 Production - 13,181 bopd

Montara - Production Development Programme over next 12 months:

Q2/2019 - Well Intervention - to add 3,200 bopd in H2/2019
Q4/2019 - Infill Well - to add 3,000 plus bopd from Q1/2020
H1/2020 - Infill Well - to add 3,000 plus bopd

This suggests Montara Field has the potential to hit 20,000 bopd on its OWN during 2020. What could the Montara cash flow potentially be were it to produce at an average of 20,000 bopd?:

Assuming an average Brent oil price of $68 ($70.5 after regional premium and 2020 hedge adjustment) and Montara Op expenses of $12.5/bbl in 2020(2019 forecast daily expenses divided by 20,000 bopd) and Jadestone's 2020 field uptime target of 92% - this would theoretically generate a staggering US$390 million of annual cash flow (for an asset that cost a net $82 million)

Assuming estimated cash flow of $70 million from the Stag and Ogan Fields in 2020, this suggests a potential total cash flow of circa $460 million annually, could theoretically be hit at some point during 2020 before any additions from further M&A.

Were the Jadestone team to successfully execute the production development programme over the next 12-15 months remotely close to plan, the Price to Cash Flow ratio could potentially drop from the current 2019 estimate of a not too shabby 1.3 to an astonishing circa 0.5 during 2020 - for what would be a debt free company with the Vietnam Gas Field Development programme and additional Stag and Montara Infill wells scheduled to add a further major step change, fully funded, organic production increase in 2021.

Forecast Base Operating Expenses - 2019
$20/boe - Montara
$29/boe - Stag
$16/boe - Ogan

$21-$24/boe - Overall( presumably the lower figure with Ogan - upper without)

$12.50/bbl - Montara Field - Est Op Expenses at 20,000 bopd

AIMHO/DYOR

The market bargains in the O&G and Industrial metals sectors are increasingly presenting themselves, with a number of the very best small resource companies like Jadestone Energy still available at incredible valuations for those that understand that successful investing in the long term, highly cyclical commodity sector is a marathon, not a sprint - ie for those with an investment time horizon of at least 5 years following a cyclical market bottom. The 45 year chart suggests the new market cycle recovery stage now underway is likely to peak around 2024/25.hTTps://www.marke****ch.com/story/timing-the-stock-market-is-tough-but-it-sure-doesnt-look-like-it-in-this-chart-2018-08-23

Something also to take into consideration in a rising oil price environment is the huge offloading flexility that an FPSO with 900,000 bbls of storage offers (2.5 months storage at current field production).

During early Q1/2019 the Brent price was circa $55 - Montara production then will have gone into the FPSO valued at that price and come out 2.5 months later into a shuttle tanker with a sales value of circa $70 bbl including regional uplift but before hedging uplift (27% more than it was worth when pumped into the FPSO).

At current price of Brent together with the $73.49 Q1/2019 hedge and regional oil price premium, JSE should be generating circa $50/bbl cash flow - $750,000 /day, and circa $265 million a year based on the 14,500 bopd mid range guidance figure.

Q1/2019 production figures, gross revenue and cash flow will likely deliver a huge step change increase in performance compared to anything seen previously.

And to think Jadestone paid $82 million net for Montara just 6 months ago(inclusive of the $22m shutdown cost consideration - that had an actual work cost of circa $4m)- with a $108 million converted cost FPSO thrown in for free!

Quiet? - this like the Ad*fn board is now a party compared to last summer :-)

After recent further heavy buying two activist high performing hedge funds now hold a third of the company and the total notifiable positions now stands at 69%.

After the $92m cash and oil transfer on completion of the $195m Montara deal in September 2018 and $22m for the subsequent maintenance shutdown - JSE has secured the purchase of the 10,000+ bopd Montara Asset and its FPSO vessel with 45,000 bpd processing and 900,000 barrels of storage capacity, currently generating $8-$10 million a month of cash flow for the almost unbelievable sum of $81m!.

To put this in persecutive - Premier oil are paying BW Offshore a charter contract fee(10 year initial fixed duration) for the FPSO BW Catcher of $210m per annum. BW Catcher has a processing capacity of 60,000 bpd and a significantly smaller storage capacity of 650,000 barrels compared to JSE's Montara FPSO.

'PTTEP Australasia as seller of the Montara assets, has agreed to provide US$22 million to Jadestone in relation to this recent shutdown of the Montara facilities, including associated costs, of which approximately US$4 million was directly attributable to shutdown work scope.'

Incredible negotiating performance by the JSE management - it effectively provides JSE with more than two months lost cash flow and the $4m cost attributable to the shut down work carried out!

With cash of around $110-$120m by end of Q1/2019 and about $10m a month of ongoing free cash generation JSE is well positioned to fund its organic production development programme 2024 target of 30,000 boed.

As pointed out at the time of the £37m placing in November 2016 to the two largest shareholders (who know the management have a history of lying to the market) - there is a very easy way to bring this huge financial scam to a halt:

Pay a reputable Marine Civil Engineering Consultancy to carry out an independent valuation of the cost of the construction work carried out to date - it would cost around £10k - AND PUT AN END TO THIS SCAM ONCE AND FOR ALL.

At least the banks appear to be on the ball - now stopping any further drawdown of the loan above £30m; a figure we believe is very close to the maximum likely valuation of the work completed to date - a smart move since the Banks have a lien over the assets - good to see that some are on the ball!

£30M CASH RAISE AT A 99.2% DISCOUNT TO THE IPO PRICE - FOR A STRAIGHTFORWARD REAL ESTATE PROJECT!

WE ESTIMATE THE CURRENT VAKUE OF THE WORK COMPLETED TO DATE AT £30M MAX - NOT THE £140M FANTASY WORLD CARRYING VALUE IN THE BOOKS!

MM Spread - when two friends and I added substantially to our positions earlier in the week the transaction prices appeared as sells rather than buys.

Someone unloaded 22,822 at 1.93p - worth £57k at IPO after 9 years of funding the Mumbai Mamba's shenanigans and billionaire lifestyle they walked with the grand sum of £440 - not even enough to cover half the daily cost of the Mamba's white glove butler Taj Mahal meeting room.

The holder that threw in the total on Friday and got shot of 507,000 got £10k back for a holding that would have cost £1.25 million at IPO.

Shareholders may be unaware that highly respected Sunny Varkey, the billionaire education entrepreneur and philanthropist, and Unesco Goodwill Ambassador served writs on former Everonn Education directors Nikhil Gandhi and P Kishore(MD) in connection with allegedly carrying out fraudulent transactions and siphoning off huge sums of funds from Everonn, of as much as £12m.

And that the matter is now under investigation by the Serious Crime Branch of India's Special Fraud Office following a formal complaint from a livid Sunny, who reports suggest is still incandescent with rage at the subsequent collapse of Everonn, after his accountants found the company's books to be a work of fiction and the accounts manipulated.

An Indian business journalist back in 2008 wrote:

'There are plenty of question marks around Nikhil Gandhi.

Why are investors willing to back him when he’s got precious little to show in terms of revenues or assets on the ground?

Why has he taken over three fledgling companies that have little by way of operations, but whose stock prices have soared in a bear market?

How can these companies with no fundamentals worth writing about shoot through the roof in a bearish market?'

Despite no revenue, Horizon Infrastructure's share-price soared nearly 30 fold in a matter of months, from Rs68 to Rs1,951 between January 25, 2008 and May 5, 2008. The National Stock Exchange did't like what it had seen, and following a short investigation, suspended trading in the company for almost 8 years.

Then in September 2009, Sebi, the Market regulator, charged officials of a second of these companies KLG Capital Services with insider trading shortly after the share-price has risen 8 fold in a few months and, barred it from the stock market. JL Capital, the third company went up a highly suspicious 11 fold in a similar timeframe.

Skil Group - the company that these three companies were merged into, saw its share-price rocket from Rs75 to Rs2000 in a matter of months in 2008 during a global market crash, but like MPL, it has since completely collapsed by more than 98%.

At first sight, Mercantile's extraordinary, £25k a month travelling and hotel expenses for the last 8 years seem totally implausible, surely there must be some mistake?

However, as David Bellamy the ex head of stockbroker Brewin Dolphin’s Leicester office found out when he visited Mumbai to discuss his BD Fund and personal shareholding in Mercantile, Nikhil Gandhi certainly likes the finer things in life, particularly, when someone else is paying.

I understand Nikhil arranged for them to meet at his exclusive Private Room at the magnificent Taj Mahal, Mumbai's top Luxury Hotel, for a full, white glove, butler service breakfast business meeting(a private room with butler costs up to £1,000 a day).

Ah...now the mists are clearing!

Ignore him at your investment peril - his involvement is lethal to any investment!

Market Cap £8m - Debt Capital + Interest circa £95m - Revenue ZERO some 9 years post IPO!

In 2017 the COO told shareholders to expect 2 million tonnes of cargo throughout in 2018 - we said there was zero chance of that happening and would't be surprised if cargo operations had even commenced by then.

With two months of 2018 left the grand total of ZERO tonnes of cargo has been handled after 9 years and 'spending' £110m of shareholders funds.

THIS IS SOME TWO YEARS AFTER AIM'S GREATEST EVER WORK OF FICTION - THE MPL SHAREHOLDERS CIRCULAR TO RAISE ANOTHER £37M FROM CLUELESS INSTITUTIONAL 'INVESTORS' - SAID THE 200 ACRE 'PORT' AND BERTH INFRASTRUCTURE WOULD BE COMPLETE AND FULLY OPERATIONAL BY Q3/2017.

AFTER 'SPENDING'(THAT WORD SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ITS LOOSEST POSSIBLE SENSE) ANOTHER CIRCA £70M OF SHAREHOLDERS FUNDS IN TWO YEARS - THEY HAVE DELIVERED JUST 15 ADDITIONAL ACRES OF LAND AND THE ANOTHER 250M OF A LIGHTWEIGHT OPEN JETTY.

At this rate, to complete the 200 acres of land reclamation to the Directors preferred specification they will probably need another £500m and 12 years of construction time if the the last two years construction performance is a reliable guide!

A tough challenge since they only have £1.8m left of the £110m of shareholders funds raised and £30m of debt drawn down and 'spent'(of which £17m disappeared in 2014 some 6 months before any construction work began - the only NOTIFICATION TO SHAREHOLDERS OF the £17m loan draw-down was hidden deep in the results on page 25 as a loan interest payment liability falling over the next 12 months!

Interesting to note that the banks have restricted any further draw-down of the loan beyond £30m - our estimate, posted here over the last year or so, of the development cost to date as opposed to the complete fantasy world 'carrying cost' of £130m claimed by MPL.

All of this and much more was included in a 120 page submission to the SFO and AIM Regulation - where the wheels of motion move exceedingly slowly.

MarketBeat: TSE:TXP - Touchstone Exploration Insider Trading Activity

9/26/2018 - North Energy Capital - Insider Buy: 175,000

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/TXP/insider-trades/

I know who the major shareholders are - spoken to some of their fund managers on numerous occasions in 2016 and 2017 - one call alone lasted over an hour. They are now 99.1% down on their original investment and nearly 80% down on their placing top-up.
I suggest you speak to them and ask who has been proven right about MPL - three industrial professionals that hold the highest professional qualifications that the shipping and port industry's currently exam for and can back that up with nearly 80 years of port senior management experience between them or a group of fund managers with no experience of the shipping and ports industry who preferred to listen to two MPL UK non execs who also hold no shipping or ports industry professional qualifications and, recently stepped down after 8 years of doing nothing other than depositing circa £800k of shareholders funds between them into their offshore bank accounts.

Some might suggest what has gone on since IPO could be best described as a racket worthy of the Mafia - we disagree - THAT WOULD BE AN INSULT TO THE MAFIA SINCE THEY WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN SO BRAZEN!

AIOHO/DYOR

If you do speak to the major shareholders; ask them how the £44 million that according to the Company Accounts was 'SPENT' 6 TO 12 months BEFORE MPL EVEN GOT ON SITE TO COMMENCE LAND RECLAMATION WENT TO. Small container ports have been built in Europe for much less than MPL supposedly 'spent' some 6 months before the first land fill lorry rolled onto the area of foreshore to be reclaimed.

The $92 million cash and inventory transfer on completion gives a very strong indication as to the highly accretive nature of the acquisition and its commercial potential, particularly in a $80+ Brent oil price environment(JSE get a $2.5 premium to Brent) - since this sum was generated with:

* An average Brent price of circa $73 Jan-Sept 2018)
* Field uptime of 72%,
which JSE in 2019 is targeting an increase to 84% while:
* Increasing annual production by circa 1.7 mbbl/d and
* Reducing operating costs by circa 20% and corporate charges and overheads by >50%.

Where has the clueless management sycophant and cheerleader disappeared to?

Answers on a postcard to the SFO!

Frank - you said at 10:10 this morning ;
All positive then
Slowly but surely
Very profitable in long term
This is going to rise very quickly on more updates
Next few weeks double this sp.

Sells out hours later - the disingenuous charlatans at MPL would smile approvingly at your underhand behaviour!

Predicted the results would be terrible - they are in fact diabolical!
So after using AIM's greatest ever work of fiction to raise another £37 million from clueless institutional investors to "fast track" the completion of the land reclamation by Q2/2017 and be fully operational by Q3/2017 - some two years later by Q4/2018 they have made only 15 acres progress to 90 acres, and are still 110 acres short of the 200 acre for which the construction was won with tender of £57m.
With a fraud on steroids 'carrying cost" of circa $130 million and just $1.08m of cash left - presumably after the banks took one look at the carrying cost and compared it to the value of construction work on the ground they have come to the conclusion that our circa £25-30 million valuation is spot on so therefore have said "NO WAY HOSE" to the release of any further funds above that level from the loan facility - to ensure they are able to get most of their funds back in the near certain event the shysters are unable to make any of the gargantuan loan interest/capital payments currently totalling £95m now falling due - smart work, we would have done the same in their position.
Well managed ports typically take two-three years and 70%+ utilisation rate of the design capacity/throughput to break even.