RE: How does the SP move so much in a short period2 Oct 2021 10:16
Good Morning Lee, hope you’re well.
Firstly, CINE still has quite a small market cap. This means that it doesn’t require a lot of money to move the price around, and as a result this stock has a high beta of >3.
Secondly, you’re spot on about the volume. Put simply, economics of supply and demand means that if volume fails to meet demand, then the price will rise or fall to meet that demand. Just as you say, if someone has bought a lot of shares and is holding them, if they decide to sell when the volume is low they are going to have much more impact on the sp than if they sold when the volume was higher, reason being that when the volume is low there are less shares moving around, so that means there is less supply to meet that demand, and the sp moves more drastically than usual to meet that demand.
Thirdly, there’s a lot of theories about market manipulation by hedge funds. CINE remains the most shorted stock on the UK market at about 8.3% last time I checked. Note that this 8.3% figure only includes short positions about 0.5% of the stock. I pointed out the other day as well that we saw a few hedge funds that lowered their short position just under 0.5% and then it stops getting tracked. It’s worth understanding that many of these hedge funds work in co-operation, due to the fact that there’s power in numbers, so if you have another 10 hedge funds shorting 0.49% each, you get another 4.9% short without it being visible to anyone else.
However, at the end of the day fundamentals prevail imo, and the sp cannot continue decreasing and decreasing on good news, the company would take action to see what is going on. We have seen a bit of this already taking place with the announcement that Mooky is looking to open a US listing back in August. That is due to the fact that the UK market is it appreciating the true value of the business, and I can nearly guarantee you that short sellers have had a part in keeping the market cap down here as well.
Hope this helps, please feel free to correct me anyone if I got anything wrong we’re all learning :)