Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Kevin Bambrough conceived of the idea for UPC back in the mid 2000s and he has shared his recent thoughts on the recent updates regarding Sprott managing UPC going forward and the implications for UPC getting listed on the NYSE and being able to do "at the market" capital raisings. His take is fascinating and highlights just how important this recent event is on the uranium market going forward. Truly pivotal moment. I would encourage anyone interested in the space to read the two threads linked below.
Thread 1 - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1387526429416509441.html
Thread 2 - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1388105079245451268.html
Kevin Bambrough conceived of the idea for UPC back in the mid 2000s and he has shared his recent thoughts on the recent updates regarding Sprott managing UPC going forward and the implications for UPC getting listed on the NYSE and being able to do "at the market" capital raisings. His take is fascinating and highlights just how important this recent event is on the uranium market going forward. Truly pivotal moment. I would encourage anyone interested in the space to read the two threads linked below.
Thread 1 - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1387526429416509441.html
Thread 2 - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1388105079245451268.html
I will start by saying that I am very bullish uranium and am already heavily invested in the space, but am considering investing a chunk into GCL as I like the basket of stocks it holds and would bring some needed diversification to my current portolio of uranium stocks.
I have been researching the holdings and the one stock that I don't quite understand is the fund's High Power Exploration-Phys at 8.66% of the fund. It is an interesting company, holding some interesting prospects / IP and with Robert Friedland as chair, I can see the potential. However doesn't seem to be very relevant to uranium and I am curious to why it is included in the fund. Is the company's IP used in a lot of uranium exploration? If anyone has any info on this, it would be greatly appreciated as I couldn't figure this one out.
Taken a few more here today, while it is quiet. Amazing to see it still quite quiet here with the copper price sitting within 5% of its all time high and the potential of Bushranger.
Very attractive entry point at these levels and I am jealous of those that can build stakes at this price as my average is a good bit higher.
We all would have liked the recent placing to be at a higher price off the back of assay results to reduce the percentage dilution of our invested stakes in the company. But how much more would we all have been disappointed if we had raised later only to find that there wasn't sufficient availability of drilling crews and that there would be significant delays in getting a drilling company onto site. I know which I would prefer.
I think the decision to lock in the drilling crews nice and early to eliminate this risk is the right decision and essential to unlocking the potential value of Bushranger and the surrounding area.
I think one thing that long term investors here need to get their head around is that the path to profitability for Deliveroo long term is to take more and more of a percentage from each customer's transaction and there is only two ways Deliveroo can realistically achieve this:
- Reduce the percentage paid to the rider
- Reduce the percentage paid to the restaurant
By doing either of the above, they will publicly end up screwing over the very partners they spend so much on PR trying to convince that they help and "work with" and this will raise very serious ethical problems in the future.
Long term the way this company becomes profitable is to deliver the food by drones or robots and cut out the rider, taking the percentage cut from the rider and boosting Deliveroo's profit margin / order.
Deliveroo also will reduce/eliminate the restaurant's percentage cut by increasing the percentage of orders that are fulfilled through editions "dark kitchens". In theory Deliveroo could take complete control of "dark kitchens" and reap all of the restaurant's percentage, but in reality they will have “partners” that willing to accept the lowest margins, while Deliveroo take the lions share. Deliveroo have the data and restaurants continue to willingly give this up, so this is all going to plan for them so far.
The long term problem with investing into this company is when restaurants and riders realise how badly they are getting shafted and what the resulting public outcry will be. It is one thing for Amazon to destroy our high streets, but the connection that the public has with restaurants goes much deeper to a primal level vs shops and when people realise that Deliveroo is killing the restaurant scene, not helping it I wouldn't want to be invested in this company.
Supply disruption from covid is going to be a huge headache for major producers going forward and given the choice between a jurisdiction that has managed covid well e.g. Australia vs countries where they have struggled such as Latin America, I wouldn't be surprised to see majors leaning towards the more safe option with respect to covid. I see security of supply becoming a more important part of jurisdiction choice going forward and was one of the reasons that the potential of Bushranger stood out to me so much.
It isn't just the closure of mines due to covid that majors have to worry about, but border closures, increased transport times of essential equipment and less flexible travel for employees/contractors.
Nice to see such strength in the price of copper today putting in a new high at the highest level since 2011. Only 5% higher from here and we are looking at ATHs in the copper price. Bushranger is definitely looking like the right project at the right time.
charts: https://imgur.com/a/pq8pEZN
It seems this story is now starting to hit the big media outlets, articles published today in The Independent, The Times and The Mirror as well as yesterdays article in The Grocer. I didn't realise it was possible to mess up giving away money.
Media Links:
The Times - A bonus twice over in Deliveroo tech error
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-bonus-twice-over-in-deliveroo-tech-error-vzvw9ss82
Independent - Deliveroo riders ordered to return part of ‘thank you’ bonus payment after technical glitch
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/deliveroo-bonus-payments-earnings-b1831508.html
Mirror - Deliveroo riders told to return part of ‘thank you’ bonus after technical glitch
https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/deliveroo-riders-told-return-part-23916549
My mistake, it appears riders were paid double the bonus into their invoices by mistake and Deliveroo are now in the process of removing the overpaid bonuses. It also appears that some riders cashed out the double bonus before Deliveroo closed down the cash out option and have negative balances on their accounts as a consequence. I guess Deliveroo can pursue legal action against the riders that cashed out early to reclaim this overpaid bonus.
Here are some links:
Deliveroo riders miss IPO bonus because of ‘technical error’
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/online/deliveroo-riders-miss-ipo-bonus-because-of-technical-error/655091.article
Deliveroo Riders Reddit thread
https://www.reddit.com/r/deliveroos/comments/mqbpo0/guys_heads_up_whoever_got_500_extra_was_a_mistake/
Copper price is looking very strong today and has broken the recent 2 month wedge to the upside.
copper price chart: https://imgur.com/a/pq8pEZN
It is really commendable that Deliveroo have decided to double the bonus paid out to its riders following the recent IPO. It is a fantastic step forward for the company in improving their public image and rider relations. A boost of morale for riders at a time when many riders are probably feeling disenfranchised with the company over hiring is a really strong move unifying the company with its riders. And on top of that it is definitely a step in the right direction of improving the ESG image of the company going forward. A good move at a pivotal moment, well done Deliveroo management.
And there is the uptick, definitely boiling just under the surface here, 7.185 paid.
NT to buy anything for me as well, but can sell 200k at 6.7p
Really great interview with Rick Rule regarding the coming commodity super cycle as a result of underinvestment in the mining industry, exploration and sustaining capital to ensure the productivity of mines. Very interesting to see that of all the commodities, copper and uranium are the two that he is most bullish on.
Copper is definitely an exciting place to be in the upcoming years. There is going to be a void of supply that majors will need to buy projects in order to satisfy and Bushranger is incredibly well positioned for when these majors go shopping.
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW3D3rK1Vhg
Good opportunity to accumulate some. I took another 50k shares today bringing my stake to 200k shares here now with an average of 7p, not the best entry, but I plan to be here a while
Looking at the history of premium/discount to NAV here in GCL is a good indicator of how strong the bull market in uranium is. From 2011 to 2017, GCL was trading with a discount to NAV the majority of the time. From 2017 to early 2020, it was a mixed bag trading both below and above NAV. However post pandemic, GCL has notably traded at a premium to NAV for the majority of the time. Really interesting to see this transition.
GCL also putting in another high today at 42.6.
GCL value to NAV charts can be viewed here: https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/geiger-counter-ltd-npv
Aussie listing would merely allow Australian investors to purchase and sell already existing shares on their own ASX exchange instead of having to deal on a foreign exchange. It would open the company up to more people allowing more investment in the company. So not dilutive at all. But the company would pay some more fees in order to list there, however attracting more investors will reduce the future cost of capital to the company, so will save us money in the long term.
The comment in the recent interview about "Xtract Australia and Xtract UK" got me thinking about a future ASX listing. I think it would be a very good move by the company, possibly after the assay results. The ASX market is very savvy when it comes to mining and they will have far better knowledge of the Lachlan fold than a lot of UK investors. Restricting the company to AIM could be cutting off a lot of Australia retail investors that don't want the hassle of trading foreign stocks.
I am more surprised that both YCA and GCL don't have more interest on these chat boards, maybe UK private investors have not yet woken up to what could unfold in the sector over the next few days. Some fantastic movement in GCL today with a new high printing.
Does anyone know why GCL has no weighting in its fund towards Namibia uranium assets, like Paladin, Bannerman, Deep Yellow, Marenica ect? It seems surprising considering that China is the biggest driver of uranium demand and Namibia is the only major uranium producing country in which China can purchase controlling stakes in uranium companies.