Significant Re-rate on Tris alone18 Mar 2021 12:30
Taken a modest position here of 500k shares at 0.54p, not willing to take a larger position here because there is significant risk here. However risk to reward is very interesting…
The mispricing here by the market is obscene, if this company comes out of the ASX halt and raises a good amount of cash, this company is going to re-rate significantly.
The company has a good portfolio of assets, but for simplicity sake lets only concentrate on one of their three assets; the Tris uranium asset and see what this company could be worth, on this asset alone.
The most comparable peer I could find would be Forsys, which has the Norasa deposit in Namibia with 91mlbs of uranium and has a completed Feasibility study for its deposit. It has a capex of US$400m and opex at US$30/lb to produce 5mlb/year U3O8 and no current management. Namibia is a better uranium mining jurisdiction, but the substantially lower Tris capex of US$45m, more than makes up for this.
The market is valuing Forsys currently at CAD$100m (£57.6m) or £0.67 / lb in the ground. Aura’s Tris deposit contains 49mlbs U3O8, valued at the same price would be worth £32.8m.
With current shares in issue of 2,557m and conservatively assuming a 33% dilution to raise capital, the company would have 3,400m shares in issue. With Tris valued at £32.8m, this should justify a share price of 0.96p, a 97% upside from the current price of 0.49p. With the uranium price likely to move up very soon, the value of this asset is likely to go much higher.
This valuation is from 1 of 3 resource assets the company has, there is exploration potential to increase the Tris U3O8 resource up to 100mlbs and there is potential compensation from the Swedish government for the companies uranium deposit there.
Management and shareholders need to resolve their difference, but with the uranium market booming, I have no doubt these issues will be resolved a lot quicker, because of the upside to all parties. Really interested to watch this unfold over the next few years.