Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Chart looking very good here, with a break of the wedge and a 5 month cup and handle formation. It has been a long set up, but it is nice to see the fundamentals aligning with the charts.
charts: https://imgur.com/a/ac9KVkB
Not a chart expert at all, but the longer term charts looking very attractive here, with the MACD on the 4 hour chart setting up to cross in a similar way as the 21st of Jan breakout with the move from 54p to the low 80ps. This coincides with the formation of a 5 month cup and handle. It is funny how news and fundaments can line up nicely with longer term technicals.
charts: https://imgur.com/a/ac9KVkB
Been invested here since April last year and it has been a volatile ride to say the least. My original investment thesis was lateral flow becoming the dominant method of testing, because of the low price, high accuracy and most importantly the quick result time of less than 15 mins. I chose Omega out of all the plays, because I saw it as the lowest risk, not being reliant on any particular test and I preferred the risk to reward of manufacturing vs IP. And most importantly, the company has been around since 1987, it has strong industry ties and a strong reputation in lateral flow diagnostics.
It has been (still is) a volatile ride watching this all unfold, but I am close to the most confident I have been throughout my journey of investing in Omega. Every week, news articles seem to sing the praises of lateral flow that little bit louder. The government is now starting to roll out lateral flow tests to schools, businesses and the rollout supporting the events industry is likely to be just around the corner.
The biggest piece of news for me is that PCR testing has been shown to no longer be the gold-standard of covid testing. It’s high sensitivity produces lots of positives for non-infectious people after they have recovered from the disease. LFTs are now being championed at identifying infectious people only. Forcing non-infectious people to self-isolate is not how you re-open an economy.
We are not there yet, there is still risk here. But, there is a lot going for the company.
- We have an RNS stating government collaboration, with further details to come.
- We have government loaned equipment supporting the increase in capacity from 1m => 2m tests / week.
- We have close ties and an MTA with Mologic, the most important lateral flow testing entity in the UK and a globally significant organisation with Gates Foundation ties.
- We have a wide array of Covid LFTs covering both antigen and antibody as well as ELISA antibody tests
- We have a government aiming for 32m tests / week sent out to support the reopening of schools as announced today.
- We have even higher aspirations of Boris’s Moonshot plan at 10m test / day (70m / week)
With the scale of lateral flow testing being announced it is comical that some of the derampers on here suggest that Omega’s capacity will not be used. The uncertainty I see is whether or not the capacity will be increased beyond the 2m tests / week.
– Article links --
32m Covid tests by post to reopen schools: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32m-covid-tests-by-post-to-reopen-schools-2s6tgvfzr
Clarifying the evidence on SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid tests in public health responses to COVID-19 - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00425-6/fulltext
Not a chartist, but it looks like a breakout of the pennant that formed over the last week. Combined with the recent weekly crossover of the MACD, from a technical perspective things are looking very rosy for Omega and there is a lot of good news flow to come.
chart: https://imgur.com/a/80qC0Tu
@Kevin I have no connection with any directors or anyone in the company, but you can see when and what price directors have brought at e.g. in previous capital raises ect.
@Bigjock Fantastic post. The directors have lead the company fantastically in the last 5 years and especially in this year. Many of the directors have an average holding price between 10-20p and thoroughly deserve to crystallize some of their gains at a time that regulations allow them to do so.
These directors have been invested in the company, physically and financially for much longer than the majority of investors here now, they have worked hard, put in the time and helped the company succeed.
There are obviously those that trade Omega on a daily basis depending on which way the wind is blowing, but for those that have held throughout the volatility, it is interesting to see that the weekly MACD has strongly crossed over in way that has not been seen since last March when the stock went from 10p to 66p in 4 weeks. I am not expecting a move like that, but what this shows you is that the longer term trend is your friend.
If you can ignore the hourly and daily volatility, there is a very strong technical uptrend and that coincides with a realisation of the importance of lateral flow testing in government, media and the scientific community. We are entering a very rich news flow period as the government reveals it’s strategy to unlock the economy going forward. If there was ever a time to stop trading the volatility, it is now, when the contracts arrive, the door will be shut and it will not open to let you back in.
chart: https://imgur.com/a/qDreI2w
Uranium Participation Corp is up 8% today (YCA's Canadian equivalent) and today it made a new high, trading at the highest level since 2015. Global X Uranium ETF (URA) also at its highest level since 2017, with the biggest daily volume since 2017 also and the market it yet to close. The Uranium market is really kicking into gear now. Here is a link of the charts:
chart: https://imgur.com/a/S2U0GU9
Nice 4% increase here today. Interesting to see Michael Burry showing an interest in the sector, this is his current pinned tweet:
"If the government is going to spend $2 trillion, there is no better use than converting the US to nuclear. @SpeakerPelosi
@SenSchumer
@POTUS
- #Dems can do it! Jobs +"potentially limitless electricity...no greenhouse gas emissions" #greenfuture NOW!".
link: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry
It will be interesting to see the general public wake up to the importance of lateral flow testing when it becomes a part of everyday life when the lock down restrictions are eased going into the spring. We will see lateral flow testing entering most workplaces, entertainment venues and chemists, we might even see them next to the checkouts in supermarkets.
Reading this board, it can be easy to forget that only a small number of people/investors have woken up to the importance of LFTs and for many people they will only understand how important they are when they start to use them in their daily life. At that point there is going to be a stampede to invest in lateral flow companies, of which there are very few listed companies to choose from and even fewer working in strong collaboration with the UK gov.
Lateral flow tests are a brand new product to the general public that is going to be essential in any transition back to normal life, importance of Omega cannot be overstated.
"lateral flow" search trends - https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=GB&q=lateral%20flow
Dibs only ever turns up on this board when he sees a trading opportunity and talks up or down the share depending on his current position. Lost any respect for him a long time a go.
The biggest driver of growth for the company is to fill it's manufacturing capacity of 2m tests / week (hopefully more) and the closer we get to achieving this, the higher value the company will be given. Today's news gets us a step closer to that and significantly de risks the investment. Some are selling out today for a quick buck, but the real value generated from today's update will be realized in the weeks and months ahead.
Seeing the performance of Novacyt following government contracts announced on the 29th of September could give investors here an insight into what Omega's s.p could do following todays announcement of gov contracts.
Prior to the announcement, NCYT’s s.p was 467.5p and that day it made a high of 595p, but closed the day at 524p, a measly 12% up, however 8 days later the s.p closed at 880p (+88%) and 18 days later the s.p closed at 1194p (+155%).
What this shows it that those investors that sold the news with NCYT on the gov contracts, lost out big. With such big company news, it can take a while for the market to digest the news and value the company accordingly.
When big news comes here, those that sell out on news for a 12% gain could be losing out, instead do your research, assign the company a valuation that you think is fair and wait for the market to reach the same conclusion.
chart: https://imgur.com/a/AdN0ULB
Fantastic update from the company today, very glad to be an investor here. This update has highlighted just how important the company will be to the country going forward and how in demand our manufacturing capacity is going to be. This update has given us a unquestionable confirmation that we will see everything we can produce in our 2m/week capacity. At our current mcap, there is significant growth ahead and we have been significantly de risked this morning.
Never seen so many people flip flopping in and out of a share and ramping/de-ramping according to their position. Funny to watch, but highlights how everyone should take with a pinch of salt what people say on here. Do you own research, come to your own conclusions, place your money and wait for the market to come to the same conclusions. Easy hold here, all coming together here now.
Nice to see Uranium Participation Corp (Our Canadian cousin) up 4.5% today. I can see YCA doing really well this year, a move from $29 => $50 uranium will be a lot quicker than some think. Both Cameco and Kazatomprom have cut production significantly as a result of Covid and the lost production will have to be made up from spot market purchases of uranium. We also have an increased pace of Japanese reactor restarts and an industry that can't bring on more production at sub $50 uranium. When the cost to get a commodity out of the ground is greater than current market price, the price will have to move up to incentivise new production.
There is also going to be a realization that nuclear will have to make up a substantial percentage of baseload power in future zero carbon energy generation. The moment the market wakes up to nuclear power being an ESG investment, things will get very interesting in the space.
YCA and UPC might not see the huge moves that many of the uranium miners have had this year, but the risk to reward proposition for physical uranium is highly attractive, making it a much safer investment.
It definitely feels like the mop is out, any pull-backs are short lived and shallow (at least compared to what the LTHs here are used to!!). Someone is hoovering up any sells and we might get to find out who soon.
Nice to see the Visitect CD4 test advertised on the LabMedica website, looking forward to hearing further news about the CD4 test, Omega is not all about covid!
link: https://www.labmedica.es/expo/product/6510/CD4-Rapid-Test-model-VISITECT-CD4
About LabMedica: https://www.labmedica.com/about
It will be interesting to see if there are any more big institutions taking notice of us now and wanting a part of the future revenues the company will be generating. We recently had Mobeus Equity Partners taking a stake in the company and it will be great to see some further institutional investors coming aboard.
ODX institutional buying: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/odx/ownership
Amazing to think that Collin signed the MTA with Mologic on the 20th Apr, highlighting just how ahead of the game the company was. Omega isn't just about its manufacturing capacity but it's experience and recognition in the sector as well as the connections it has in the industry. It has been a long slog at times here, but it is fantastic seeing all of the pieces of the puzzle fitting together perfectly in the end.