Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Nice technical wedge break by YCA here today.
chart: https://imgur.com/a/JL40EL9
I was also burnt on Sirius, but the two are vastly different situations. Resource discovery is very different to Mine development and also Sirius was in a weak position because of the huge capital it required.
Whereas here if the resources at Bushranger are proved up, we have an asset that is highly in demand putting the company in a very strong position.
The market was deeply discounting this company compared to peers (even before the uranium stocks re-rated) on the assumption that shareholders wouldn't be able to resolve their differences. The company has now cleaned up the balance sheet, with shareholders now working together and will resume trading on the ASX next month.
Other uranium stocks have run up a huge amount in the last 4 months and Aura missed out on this because of it's ASX suspension and as a result it is one of the cheapest DFS stage uranium projects out there, that also happens to have one of the lowest capex requirements to get into production.
This company has had a turbulent few years without a doubt, but what uranium company hasn't been beaten into the dirt since 2011? It is important to note that the uranium market has fundamentally changed in the last 4 months; from a long, nasty and unforgiving bear market, to a strong bull market with a promising future. Aura has some catching up to do and the last two days of trading gives a nice insight into what that re-rate could look like.
Took another 46689 shares at 5.95. Not bothered about a small delay from rain when I have a 6 month time horizon to see this resource get mapped and fully drilled out, but the price is very attractive at this level. £44m mcap...
Solid results, good consistency and no e to see some good grades close to the surface. Looking like it could be a very economical and vast resource.
It sure will be interesting when ESG fund flows start getting into the uranium space. Expecting this will be a popular bb in a few months time.
It could be the market starting to realize how cash generative uranium miners could be with the inevitable move up of the uranium price. Lots of action in YCA this week as well.
Yellow Cake is up 16.7% on the week, absolutely flying. The weekly candle looks very bullish here.
Chart: https://imgur.com/a/rdT43KT
Another thing Aura has going for it is that the UK has very few Uranium listings, most uranium juniors and majors are listed in the USA, TSX or ASX exchanges. The only UK listings I am aware of are:
- Yellow Cake | YCA (physical uranium fund)
- Geiger Counter | GCL (Uranium fund)
- Berkeley Energia | BKY (Binary play, if the Spanish gov allow uranium mining, heads or tails?)
- Kazatomprom | KAP (Kazakhstan 75% state owned uranium major - £4.5bn mcap)
When the uranium price rises and uranium stocks become more mainstream, Uk investors have limited places to go unless they want to deal overseas. If Aura sorts out management/shareholder issues, it will be the most leveraged uranium play in the LSE by a huge margin and I can foresee a lot of money coming this way.
Everything has to fall into place here first, but big payoff if the board can resolve issues.
Nice to see a new ATH print today in YCA at 261, a sign of what is to come here, the uranium market is finally getting started.
chart: https://imgur.com/a/AdZ1tEH
Taken a modest position here of 500k shares at 0.54p, not willing to take a larger position here because there is significant risk here. However risk to reward is very interesting…
The mispricing here by the market is obscene, if this company comes out of the ASX halt and raises a good amount of cash, this company is going to re-rate significantly.
The company has a good portfolio of assets, but for simplicity sake lets only concentrate on one of their three assets; the Tris uranium asset and see what this company could be worth, on this asset alone.
The most comparable peer I could find would be Forsys, which has the Norasa deposit in Namibia with 91mlbs of uranium and has a completed Feasibility study for its deposit. It has a capex of US$400m and opex at US$30/lb to produce 5mlb/year U3O8 and no current management. Namibia is a better uranium mining jurisdiction, but the substantially lower Tris capex of US$45m, more than makes up for this.
The market is valuing Forsys currently at CAD$100m (£57.6m) or £0.67 / lb in the ground. Aura’s Tris deposit contains 49mlbs U3O8, valued at the same price would be worth £32.8m.
With current shares in issue of 2,557m and conservatively assuming a 33% dilution to raise capital, the company would have 3,400m shares in issue. With Tris valued at £32.8m, this should justify a share price of 0.96p, a 97% upside from the current price of 0.49p. With the uranium price likely to move up very soon, the value of this asset is likely to go much higher.
This valuation is from 1 of 3 resource assets the company has, there is exploration potential to increase the Tris U3O8 resource up to 100mlbs and there is potential compensation from the Swedish government for the companies uranium deposit there.
Management and shareholders need to resolve their difference, but with the uranium market booming, I have no doubt these issues will be resolved a lot quicker, because of the upside to all parties. Really interested to watch this unfold over the next few years.
Uranium Participation Corp (Our Canadian equivalent) is looking really good on the charts, strong upside both there and in YCA. It is going to be really interesting seeing the world come to the realization that it needs nuclear to meet it's zero carbon emissions goals in the future. Nuclear renaissance definitely on the cards.
TSX:U chart: https://imgur.com/a/cnGGrtG
Brought in here today, looks like a potentially tremendous resource, in one of the best jurisdictions surrounded by mining majors that are looking to make acquisitions to satisfy the huge present and future copper demand. Definitely risk on proving up the resource, but highly attractive risk to reward profile in Xtract.
Taken a position here, been watching it for a while. Huge prospects.
For someone that is very negative about the company, Jolly has amassed a large amount of posts here over the last 2 days. He has posted here 40 times in 2 days which is more than I have posted myself here in 2 months and I am all in on this one.
I encourage people to criticise the company and expose flaws, but relentless negativity from posters that haven't frequented the board in the past is comical. I wish Jolly the best of luck in talking the share price down to your entry point!
Someone brought 640k shares yesterday when the price sold off into the close, do you think no one was buying in this mornings shake? Try to see beyond the smoke and mirrors here. This share is going one way and that is up. Government contracts confirmed, size of contract: substantial, capacity: substantial.
We have had a turbulent 2 days here and there will be some wanting to exit and throw in the towel and that's fine, those shares will be accumulated and when all the lose hands have been firmly shaken out we will move up here. The size of the manufacturing capacity is huge, the scale of the contract announced is huge, Omega is well placed and is delivering on it's promises. And lets not forget that the company has a lot more to it than antigen LFTs.
Been invested here since April and think the company has done a fantastic job considering the circumstances.
Might just be all the traders that were looking for an easy quick buck exiting. Good riddance. To build a mid cap company takes time and the company has made huge progress in the last year, with strong news flow to come
With the positive news of a government contract announced this evening and a likely RNS update in the morning, I thought I would repost this, highlighting why government contract announcements will not be a sell on news event for Omega.
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Seeing the performance of Novacyt following government contracts announced on the 29th of September could give investors here an insight into what Omega's s.p could do if/when big LFT contracts come in from the UK gov.
Prior to the announcement, NCYT’s s.p was 467.5p and that day it made a high of 595p, but closed the day at 524p, a measly 12% up, however 8 days later the s.p closed at 880p (+88%) and 18 days later the s.p closed at 1194p (+155%).
What this shows it that those investors that sold the news with NCYT on the gov contracts, lost out big. With such big company news, it can take a while for the market to digest the news and value the company accordingly.
When big news comes here, those that sell out on news for a 12% gain could be losing out, instead do your research, assign the company a valuation that you think is fair and wait for the market to reach the same conclusion.
chart: https://imgur.com/a/AdN0ULB
Looks legit, news flow getting into full swing now. £374m is a big initial contract for the company