Member Info for MoreThanMe

@Lovejoy22 totally agree, investors really shouldn't forget the value that other divisions of our business commands, there is a large portion of our mcap that is attributed to non-covid activities. There is huge potential upside in covid testing, but lots of value is already underpinned here and a lot of new investors are neglecting this. The Finncap research note released early in the year highlights this:

"The existing Food Intolerance business generated sales and EBITDA in FY 2020 of
£9.2m and £4.2m, respectively, growing by c.14% and driven by a c.£1m order from
China. Stripping c.£0.7m from EBITDA to account for the Chinese contribution, the
underlying non-China business could generate c.£4.0m of EBITDA in two years, which
could command a valuation of c.£60m (15x EV/EBITDA, given 40%+ EBITDA margin).

Assuming Chinese NMPA approval for the Food Detective self-test in the summer,
revenues could rise to £6-12m (0.5-1.0m tests) in the next couple of years with gross
profit of £4.0-8.0m, potentially larger than the current Food intolerance business. Based
on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x, this could be valued at £40-80m, with a value today of
£30-60m.

VISITECT CD4 is potentially capable of generating revenues of £8-12m in the next few
years once WHO PQ approval has been received and end users have familiarised
themselves with the test’s utility, which implies test volumes of 2.5-3.8m. This would
generate gross profits of c.£5.5-8.5m, which could be valued at £55-85m, a value today
of £45-70m."

One of the great advantages for Omega will be it's diversified portfolio of tests and its ability to flex its capacity to the current demand. This is why the antigen LFT is a pivotal moment for the company. Near to Mid term, there is going to be huge demand for high quality antigen LFTs as we battle to get a handle on the pandemic and Omega will be able to max out its capacity with the majority of capacity assigned to antigen tests under the Visitect brand.

Mid-Longer term, as we get a grip on the pandemic, the demand will shift to verifying vaccine immunity and duration of immunity i.e. when to get a booster vaccine / Has the body reacted to the vaccine correctly? As this demand shifts away from antigen to antibody tests, we have two excellent LFTs; the abc-19 UK-RTC test and the Visitect branded triple antibody test as well as possibly providing an ELISA antibody lab service.

This fluid approach to flexing capacity to demand will enable Omega to manufacture at full capacity for a long time increasing the p/e ratio the market will assign us. Collin has done a fantastic job in this respect.

It is nice to see sentiment swing here, this bb was a dire place only 2 weeks ago. People have finally understood that Omega has a huge part to play in helping us get a grip on this pandemic, both with antigen testing and then alongside vaccine rollout / post pandemic management.

@Beachball Collin has stated in the 30th of November interim results presentation: "In terms of tech transfer, we have started that work". So tech transfer has been undergoing for at least 24 days.

This can be found on the Brr Media - Omega Interim results presentation (link below). Skip to the antigen section found at 18:31 and the exact quote on the tech transfer is at 19:20.

link to Brr Media: Omega Interim results presentation: https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5fbf9d78b19325729a9d7d05/5fcf70010c7aa22257c278d6

Mologic antigen LFT CE marking is a fantastic piece of new to receive. Mologic have done a fantastic job there, so a bit well done to the team there! This Mologic antigen LFT can be branded under the Visitect brand giving us far higher margins than any other 3rd party manufacturing, so this is fantastic news going forward.

I personally think the Mologic antigen LFT is the greatest driver of shareholder value here and Collin is doing a fantastic job of delivering this.

The ask keeps moving up, can sell at £0.5131 for quantity now.

Bid and ask moved up quickly. Being offered £0.5058 to sell large quantity.

With Capacity at 900k / week at the end of February, if Omega sell everything they manufacture, they could be generating more annual EBITDA than their current mcap, depending on the makeup of the tests they manufacture. This is only at 900k tests / week, the numbers get even bigger if we sell over 2m tests / week.

This 900k capacity is with a test make-up of 200k UK-RTC, 90k Visitect Antibody, 600k Visitect Antigen, 10k CD4 and assuming £75k weekly profit from food intolerance.

Shareholders here have had a brutal 2 months, but things are turning around here and sentiment will start to swing. The news flow we are due here is amazing. Capacity numbers we were only dreaming of a few months ago are becoming a reality right now and this is just the start. 500k --> 2m+ in the first few months of the new year.

On top of that the share price chart is turning around for us, breaking out of the downtrend and building up support levels, forming a new uptrend. Well done to holders that have held on their conviction, it has been tough here at times, but will be all worth it.

chart: https://imgur.com/a/Keq6zwQ

@Kaylinblue This isn't a lateral flow test, it is a medical professional taking a blood draw that is then sent off to a laboratory for analysis, hence the high price of £169.

"This is a full blood draw sample. This test is to be carried out by a fully qualified phlebotomist,"

@silles Tech transfer has already started, as stated by Collin King in the Interim results presentation on the 30th of November:

"Pleased to say in terms of technical transfer, we have commenced that work with Mologic to bring the test into the Alva facility. That will be a key focus for the site in December."

The last tech transfer of the Mologic antibody test took a month, so I expect tech transfer to be completed in the first week of January, taking into account there being a few extra days off for staff over Christmas. Perfect timing for the increase in capacity that we will see each month next year.

"Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for the first over-the-counter (OTC) fully at-home diagnostic test for COVID-19. The Ellume COVID-19 Home Test is a rapid, lateral flow antigen test, a type of test that runs a liquid sample along a surface with reactive molecules."

It's coming, you can't test the volumes required without home testing, the US have now approved home testing, Uk to likely follow suit.

link: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-antigen-test-first-over-counter-fully-home-diagnostic

Abingdon raising 22m for expansion is a clear indicator of the huge future demand there will be for the UK-RTC antibody test going forward, confirming that a good chunk of our capacity will be utilized for this test and highlighting the importance of antibody testing. On top of this we also have a second Visitect branded antibody test that the company is selling privately.

Tech transfer of the Mologic antigen test is also underway, allowing us to sell this test soon, this will be a second generation LFT with improved sensitivity over what is already on offer, after all Mologic are experts in their field.

Post Christmas, cases are going to spike and the demand for high quality LFTs will go through the roof, even more so than currently. Omega is positioned perfectly, having raised capital well in advance to increase capacity and having a well diversified portfolio of LFTs.

@Symbo1 The share price is a bit meaningless without the context of how many shares in issue. Abingdon might have a share price double ours, but they have circa half the number of shares at 95,699,114 in issue vs Omega's 180m shares, making the mcaps roughly similar.

It will be interesting to see what the company can do with the war-chest of cash that covid-19 LFTs will bring into the company. The company has been talking more and more about the USA market in relation to food intolerance , which before was mainly focused on the Chinese market. With extra cash to push advertising in the US, who knows how well the food division can do. Health and self-testing is going to boom, as we have seen increased adoption of less centralized healthcare and testing.

People seem to forget that this year the company has had major pivotal news on both food intolerance self test approval in China and WHO Prequalification for the Visitect CD4 test. These are two major milestones that underpin substantial value in the company, but have been forgotten because people are only thinking covid. Of course the Covid LFT business offers incredible upside with private UK-RTC tests and Mologic antigen / antibody tests, but we shouldn't loose sight of other highly valuable parts of Omega's business.

When we receive an update on the Mologic LFT antigen, it will very likely be very impressive. Mologic's LFT antigen test was trialled in collaboration with Collinson Group for roll out in Heathrow. Collinson Group have now gone on to roll out testing at Heathrow, Stanstead, East Midlands and Manchester airports, all of which offer antigen testing as an option.

Mologic's antigen LFT would not have been rolled out at airports if it was not of a high sensitivity and specificity, which must indicated that it is a substantially superior in sensitivity compared to the government's first wave LFTs such as Innova. After all, why was Mologic chosen above the rest for the Collinson Group airport trial, when Innova would have had their product in the market at the time.

After breaking the 2 month downtrend/falling wedge last week, it looks like this breakout of the falling wedge was re-tested at 49p this morning on open, with this re-test rejected, it looks like this week could be the start of a major new uptrend, especially with the huge amounts of news flow we have coming here. Well done to the patient here, it is all about to pay off.

charts: https://imgur.com/a/aqj3c0K

It doesn't matter too much whose test we make, with a worst case scenario of manufacturing someone elses antigen LFT with poor margins, we would roughly have an average margin of £1 per test, at 2m / week tests 104m tests / year, that is £104 in profit, more than our current mcap, which would value the company at £300m+.

Things get more interesting if the Mologic LFT antigen becomes a huge success as the margin on those are £2.50 profit / test for the company, bringing up the average profit margin / test closer to the £2 mark, which would result in over £200m profit / year with production at 2m tests / week.

There is another contract for LFT image recognition technology awarded to Novarum DX which is a subsiduary of BBI solutions and we all know who they are and how aggressively they have been hiring recently. It is very interesting seeing this all coming together. This contract has the same overview as the one awarded to healthy.io:

"DHSC is planning to deploy a lateral flow antigen testing service, enabling members of the public to carry out COVID-19 testing in their own homes"

Novarium DX link: https://bbisolutions.com/services/novarum-smartphone-reader.html
bidstats contract: https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W50/740622567
commercial agreement: https://atamis-1928.cloudforce.com/sfc/p/#0O000000rwim/a/4J000000kEli/wfH4IxLYl7V2GHejesa0Dzt0.JVh2sxOcFahVSyw7sE

@Gazza, really interesting find. Digging a little deeper:

"DHSC is planning to deploy a lateral flow antigen testing service, enabling members of the public to carry out COVID-19 testing in their own homes"

With government going down the home testing route, the scale of LFTs required is going to be immense, every week that goes by it looks more and more likely that we will sell all we can manufacture, even when producing at 2m+ LFTs / week. Collin has also positioned us well to adapt to demand by having a diversified portfolio of tests with both antigen and antibody LFTs.

Page of interest: https://imgur.com/a/k41V8A7
Full commercial agreement: https://atamis-1928.cloudforce.com/sfc/p/#0O000000rwim/a/4J000000kElD/c5NJbsOa07upkW3oz_.LLjzaXYam_IaSs4ssWSR_jjA