Member Info for moorhey

Back on 5th May 2016 I wrote on the FCCN - French Connection - thread (in response to a move by FCCN into home furnishings)... What is interesting is the move into furniture with the "home" section. Since Habitat went into administration in 2011 (and was bought by Home Retail Group), there has been a gap in the home furnishings market for a "design-led premium brand". There is a lot of focus on Sainsbury buying the Home Retail Group for the Argos brand, but I think they are really after the Habitat brand. Announced today, Sainsbury's are to increase Habitat outlets from 7 to 17 this year.

Back on 5th May 2016 I wrote on this thread (in response to a move by FCCN into home furnishings)... What is interesting is the move into furniture with the "home" section. Since Habitat went into administration in 2011 (and bought by Home Retail Group), there has been a gap in the home furnishings market for a "design-led premium brand". There is a lot of focus on Sainsbury buying the Home Retail Group for the Argos brand, but I think they are really after the Habitat brand. Announced today, Sainsbury's are to increase Habitat outlets from 7 to 17 this year.

Currently the SP seems to be bouncing along the 200-day MA (currently at about 655). If it drops below 650, then I will be buying but - with the Quarterly results out in the 1st-week of May and "no news" being good news with insurance - I can't see that happening as so long as premiums are on or about the same level as reported in May16, we should be well on the way to another Special Dividend. Someone is going to takeover this "cash-cow" up one day.

Terrific write-up in the Investors Chronicle this week. The company has just about cornered the market in warehouse facilities at Heathrow (what Buffett calls a "moat") and looks very much under-valued by the Market. Never a good idea to make predictions, but the SP should be well over 500 by the year end.

It seems to be cyclical - after the Special Dividend is announced there's a rise in the SP, and then the SP slowly drops off to a year low around June/July, before starting to climb again (presumably on anticipation of the next Special Dividend). The turning point is usually the issue half-year statement/figures. The SP dropped below the 50-day MA on 27March, and if it drops below the 200-day MA (which is at about 650) some people say that's a sign to sell-off; but when the SP drops below the 200-day MA I take that as a buying opportunity. While insurance margins are always getting tighter, this company makes so much cash it's hard to understand why it isn't rated higher.

There is not enough liquidity in my opinion, hence the fluctuations. Sit tight and play the long game.

Unless something drastic happens (like Heathrow being closed in favour of Stansted) this company should end 2017 in the FTSE100. Hence the almost 100% take up.

I expect this has been in the pipeline for some time, and the timing was possibly to give a boost to the shares once they had been promoted to the FTSE100. Unfortunately, they just missed out on that promotion, but the deal was going ahead anyway. There is absolutely no way that Segro will not be promoted into the FTSE100 at the next opportunity now, and that has to be good for the SP.

Some good comment posted yesterday in IC.

Well done GSmiley - smash & grab!

Of the 480 million shares in circulation less than a million have been traded so far today. It's not even froth.

The SP is up & over 3900, which only 4 weeks ago seemed completely pie in the sky! I know that you should hang on to your winners and sell your losers, but this SP does not look like holding to me.

19% on a US$1bn turnover and net debt reduced by 35% to US$280 million - this company appears to be printing cash.

Not sure if there is much more upside to the SP, so it is probably time to sign-off, sell-up and move on.

Article 50 is probably already priced into the market, but the effects of post-EU life are not yet as we won't know where that will take us until we finally leave the EU in April 2019 (at the earliest) and know what deal (if any) we have managed to negotiate. Then, after a brief "summer of love" in 2019 - reality will hit the majority in the autumn of 2019 and we will have a "winter of discontent". After that, who knows? Companies tend to take easy routes to success so, if we make life difficult for them, they will move to greener pastures. Unfortunately, the majority of "Leave" voters have not grasped that fact. In the meantime, so long as ICP keeps a handle on its debt mountain, it should maintain its dividend %.

They have certainly climbed out of the hole they were dropped in by the Brexit vote. I'm no chartist, but (apart from the Brexit issue) the 50-day MA seems to bounce off the 200-day MA, and that seems to be a good "buy" signal. However, that revenue is flat-lining, and that the 1.7bn increase in assets (since 2012) is equal to the 1.7bn increase in debt, suggests that we could be approaching a time to sell. The market will be looking for a positive reason to push the SP higher and, if there isn't one, we could see a period of consolidation coming up. Will that reason be another restructuring of the shares?

The size of the special dividend depends on the amount the company uses for share buybacks. I'm expecting a dividend around 60-65p per share with the remainder used for share buybacks which will (hopefully) negate any potential for the SP to drop in value one this goes ex-div.

From left field, a bid!

Great set of full year results. Yes, a tiny bit down on last year but there are plenty out there finally realising what a cash-cow this business is. See Bearbull in Investors Chronicle.

What volume is required to constitute an SP? just 1 share? I was trying to buy on 13th Dec (via HL which holds my SIPP) offering 10% over the odds from 220 up. Tried to buy 3 or 4 times in about 5 mins and kept getting rejected, and eventually bid at 295 when the SP quote on HL was showing 260-265 and had my purchase confirmed at 292. I know it was a major downward spike, but it was manufactured and not a genuine market reaction - or does that not matter?