Member Info for moorhey

Thanks for that Smellyben. Your synopsis seems to make sense to me, and I've topped-up my small shareholding at 825 on the back of it. If this share is over 950 by Xmas, then I will be happy.

It would seem that you and me Wolfhound, are on the same page looking 5 years ahead and not 5 weeks. Yesterday, I was taken out for lunch by my "boys" aged 24 and 22, and they both (without prompting - we were talking about internet gambling) recommended using Skrill as a payment method, and said lots of their mates held skrill accounts. Me? I'd never heard of Skrill before OPAY bought the company! Yes, there is the strong possibility that a 3rd-party will come along and try and make a takeover bid, but that bid would have to be fairly significant. Much of the current market valuation is based on the premise of growth (OPAY only generated $59 million profit on $365 million revenue last year) but, even at 2014 figures, if you compare OPAY to similar internet-based finance companies, any bid would have to be at least double the current market valuation of £1.65 billion, and more likely a lot more than that. Then you have to ask, who are the potential bidders? And it is not good enough just to real-off names, they have to be companies with shed-loads of cash. Otherwise, as with VISA buying VISA Europe, most of the purchase money is borrowed. And if the purchaser doing the buying is using finance, who would you lend the money to? A big company with dead management trying to find growth by buying a fast-growing innovative market leader - or the brilliant management of a fast-growing market leader wanting to leap-frog into the FTSE100 by buying a sedentary dinosaur needing new blood? The OPAY management have done it once already in buying Skrill, so why not do it again? I know who I'd lend my money to, but then I'm not a banker.

The size of the Special Div seems to be "loosely" linked (in my opinion - I'm no expert) to the Net Operating Profit (NOP). In the 9-month (before the 3rd-quarter) of 2014, NOP was US$142.50 million resulting in Special Div of $1.20 (two payments). This year, the NOP for 9-months is US$127.60 million, and the Special Div is $0.95. It's not an exact ration, but it is in the ball-park. Being a "disaster" insurance company, it will all depend if there is a disaster in the year as to whether there is a Special Dividend payout or not.

We should have marked the date in the calendar as this morning the Special Dividend was announced and the SP jumped to 750 on the news. Thru' the morning, the SP has "settled-down" and now (noon UK 5th Nov) sits at 730. Could have made a quick margin by selling on the news this morning, and buying back before the Special ex-Div date of 27th Nov. However, if I knew what was going to happen to the SP in advance, I wouldn't be on here writing about it but taking advantage of it instead!

Who would have thought it, Wolfhound? A payment transaction company worth US$23 billion - and that is only the European arm! Perhaps I should listen to the doom & gloom merchants on here and sell OPAY now at 340 and think myself jolly lucky to have made a small profit. This is no reflection on you matey, I know you are bullish about OPAY. I'm just responding to your thread because - as I'm not authorised by the FSA - my personal opinions (according to some, not you though) are worthless.

I'm not sure how to take that Dave? Is it a compliment, or is anyone who does not hold your opinion a troll? Who is the troll? The sceptic, or the person backing his opinion with cash? The company only has a market capitalisation of £1.50 billion, yet has a business model that could see it become one of only a handful (if that) of truly global financial transaction companies. If you think Facebook is big, think again.

If you are in for the long term (and I am - this company will have an SP of 5000+ in about 5 years and go stratospheric when cash becomes a museum piece) then last weeks jitters will seem the workings of the mad and the deranged. You say "chance missed" but would you really have sold at 350, 2-weeks ago, in the hope that the SP would drop 15%? Those who can really say "chance missed" are the one's who sit on the fence, jeering, but haven't the balls to get involved. You are in for £40k at an average of 300. Me - I'm in for £20k at an average of 200 (10,000 shares). Ride the wave.

Hope so, GSK is 10% of my SIPP and just re-invested a years worth of div's on Monday.

OPAY was 225 on 8th July. If there are any bidders circling, as they said on "Jaws" - I think we'll need a bigger boat!

Hmmm... I suppose if Norton Security says the website of this £1.60 billion company is dodgy then perhaps we'd all better go back to putting out savings back in the Post Office savings account.

MY21: You've been right on the money with Betfair for months - well done! I myself use the Betfair platform to play the horses, and have done since they took over Flutter way back in 2002, yet even I didn't see this one coming. And I'm an avid disciple of Peter Lynch and his "One Up On Wall Street" method. I should have been riding this favourite with a "double-handful".

Think of LRE as an employer in the sales industry who pays a modest salary with commission paid on sale results. The 1.70% is the "base" salary, and the special dividends are the commission.

Some good chat from radvalve and Davbro68. SGRO forms 10% of my SIPP and, while my holding is nowhere near as large as radvalve's, the company is doing me proud. A long term hold for me with additions along the way on SP weakness when it comes (topped up at 410 in early July). Looking to diversify my SIPP, so always glad to read the comments of others, but I also find the investment strategy of others interesting. Sir Clement Freud (being a fan of horseracing) wrote that when placing a wager the stake should be large enough to make you wince if it loses - otherwise the wager is a pointless exercise. So I find it very interesting that radvalve has gone in deep on SGRO. I have made a large investment on my SIPP in OPAY (10000 at an ave of 188) and, if all goes to plan, I'm hoping it'll be a 5 or even 10-bagger within 5 years. All the best.

pheonixchi: another company in which we both hold a shareholding!

Thanks Professor. When I bought-in originally at 184, my interpretation of the fundamentals of the company suggested that a value of 220-240 would have been achieved at some time in the 1st-6 months of 2015. When the SP started to slip down, I topped-up at lower levels (much as I would when betting on a horse and the odds drift longer) thinking I'd read it right and the "sellers" have read it wrong. However, sheer weight of numbers has pushed the price down to current levels where I'd need a 100% increase in SP just to break-even. I could buy more shares and reduce my average buy price but, even if I doubled my shareholding and reduced my average buy-in to about 134, I'm still requiring a 38% improvement in SP from its current level just to break-even. Add to that the distinct possibility that the reason for the pronounced drop in the SP could be a valid one that neither you or anyone else who is "bullish" about XCH has spotted yet. Sometimes (as happens in horseracing) you need to take off the rose-tinted glasses and smell the coffee. Possibly the best decision anyone can make is to know when to cash-in and move on - be it marriage, job, or share-trade.

phoenixchi: it's always of interest to me when I come across another player on horseracing. I'm not full-time like you as I can earn-more from my freelance consultancy but, probably in about 5 y3ears time when ageist policies prevent me from obtaining new contracts, I will almost certainly fall-back on horseracing as a full-time income stream. If you are interested, my main focus (due to time constraints) is on the jumps game and I have been posting a blog with my selections (profitable every season since starting, with my best ever season the one just gone 2014-15) since March 2010. The blog selections are more of an icing on the cake, than a way of making a living. If you are interested it's http://waywardlad.blogspot.co.uk and I will start posting selections over the jumps from about mid-October through to Grand National day next April.

Sorry Prof, my patience has run out with todays 25% drop in price to sub-100. To answer your earlier question, I bought-in at 184 (1st tranche) and again several times with my final purchase at 154. So far, this purchase has been my worst decision to date.

It doesn't matter how good the product is or what the potential future growth will be; the market has given it's verdict. This board is hopeless and beyond redemption. The only hope for those willing to hold on is that at this price level a bid opportunity exists. Unfortunately, any bidder will have to negotiate with these numpties - who will probably expect to be retained! Time to swallow my pride and a substantial loss. Thanks for nothing Ken Lever.

Must admit that I'm losing patience with this company. I've been a shareholder for 18 months and I'm looking at a substantial paper loss with no light at the end of the tunnel.

What a swipe! This has made what should have been a good day for my portfolio, an absolute nightmare.