Member Info for moonparty

- Approx £30 Million cash
- trading at a discount to recent large (£18 million) placing at 46p
- trading at a discount to recent director buys at 45p
- technology already clinically proven.
- technology published and peer reviewed in many journals.
- absolutely massive market for the technology, and nothing else that comes close as a competitor in terms of both efficacy and cost.
- hard work for FDA approval already done, over many years.
- FDA submission is in and accepted, waiting for approval Q2 next year (earliest possible, could be later).
- We know the reason for the sp fall - not a reflection on Angle but a reflection on Jupiter's dire financial position, and they can't have many left now.

It certainly ticks all my boxes. AIM being as fickle as it is, this won't be on peoples radars until March, but much news could arrive before then, as commercialisation is well under way.
Also, once Jupiter run out of shares (any day now hopefully), the sp will tick up, probably at least to the placing price, IMO.

Topped up this morning, so consider the above to be all the rantings of confirmation bias :)

Could it be that the delay is not due o Nayéga at all, but due to negotiation of the plan for other areas? They might be about to pull a major deal out of the hat to cover far more than a single Managenese operation?

JimBL, thanks for uncovering this - it certainly explains why announcements have been caveated over the years.
My thoughts in no particular order :
1) Probably Keras knew of the issues but were asked not to highlight them. It must be a difficult situation, but I don't see they could have done much else if this is the case - especially as the information is in the public domain anyway.
2) The announcement last year 'notification of a decree' was probably at a point that Togo thought it was resolved, but perhaps it wasn't as resolved as they thought?
3) Covid won't have helped much with moving things forward.
4) Without the full facts and knowledge of conversations it is difficult to know it management have been / are acting wisely.

Not sure if this changes my personal risk/reward maths for Keras, though would appreciate others opinions. In a way it's actually made it more attractive, as it is likely management incompetence is not at the root of the delays, and we know (probably) have an actual reason for them. In fact they are continuing to do everything they can to land the licence. Removes uncertainty, which is always good. Or is this too rose tinted?

And actually even matching current best outcome with a lower cost and/or lower toxicity solution will be worth a considerable amount.

OK thanks. I'm not sure it's as binary as that - if 'works' is defined as, say, 20% improved survival over current best available treatment, but SCIB1 achieves 100% or 200% improvement, that will be a very different share price outcome.
Obviously if it is 0% or less then it will effectively be worth nothing.

Hi Ruck, where is the 63p from? Can't see that on the Trinity Deta Scancell page.
I would have thought if they all work, Scancell sp will be be several £.

Good luck with your investments Knowelsi, you have to follow your instincts / strategy.
I don't have the time to attempt market timing, and tbh I wouldn't want to risk it with Scancell - I see much happening in the next few months to support the share price, but each to their own. I possibly have confirmation bias though always try to be objective.
If you fancy a really high risk / reward, have a look at KRS, could 5-bag within a week! (apologies for ramp, just hoping it will offset the depressing SCLP sp this week).

Great news on the Pfizer/bnt vaccine, but I would be interested to see a detailed breakdown.
In particular if the vaccine is effective independent of age - most vaccine efficacy reduce with age, which makes a useful coronavirus vaccine particularly tricky, as the virus is only so serious in older people.

Though thinking about it, because the offer was over subscribed it's not possible for them to increase their percentage shareholding. So just ignore last post lol.

A thought I had over the weekend - if Redmile have subscribed for all their OO shares will they now be above 30% and be forced to make an offer for the company?
I understand if this happens it's pretty much just a formality and would be rejected by other shareholders, but would lead to an interesting RNS.

I have my open Offer shares, but no excess shares as of yet (platform is II). Has anyone else been allocated there excess yet?

And breath... good news, now let the science happen.

Waiting for the meeting result...

Something I have wondered - has Covidity caused the issues?
Covidity could be a really quick win if Phase 1 shows promise, and lead to a massive re-rate on its own and possibly a Nasdaq listing / fund-raise for phase 3 at much higher prices. This could happen within 6 months, and the extra Redmile funds would not be required to get to this point, so maybe Vulpes see it as a cynical move to move to grab a larger piece of the pie?
Interesting times, would love to know what the real sticking points are.

That was surely considered by the board. Maybe they decided they didn't need to as they new of enough shareholders who could be persuaded to vote yes.

Thanks mia, I see now.

But 10 apples in this case is 5% of 200 (apples in issue). I don't understand your point.

AB,
This kind of thing happens all the time. If funds went around holding grudges the whole time when they get diluted in the next round they would never be successful.
Vulpes have been diluted at a much higher price after all, so they shouldn't be that upset.
This is not a massive failure of the BoD, as you seem to think, but just normal AIM fundraising business. Vulpes have done well so far and will continue to reap the rewards if Scancell performs as expected.
You can't blame them for trying to retain a bigger piece of the company, but if they have any sense they will accept the outcome of next week's vote with good grace.

Konar, I certainly don't see Vulpes as the villain.
It seems they are trying to maximise their percentage of Scancell. In fact, it shows they are huge believers in the science and are holding for the medium/long term.
I'd imagine the BoD will get the 75% by next week, so what happens after will depend how good Vulpes and the rest of the board are at talking things through and basically making up. And thus will dpend on the egos of the individuals involved. In my experience, most successful people can out the past behind them and don't let their ego's get in the way of good business decisions.

it is a huge positive that key shareholders are battling for their stake in the company.
Vulpes presumably subscribed to the OO (which was, after all, 'substantially' oversubscribed), and it seems they want as large a slice of the pie as possible, hence the opposition to the further Redmile investment.
So, we have 2 biotech expert institutions battling for as large a piece of Scancell as possible - what does that tell you ??
Also, it seems Vulpes probably didn't introduce Scancell to Redmile, so as another poster mentioned, maybe they came via BioNTech?