Some perspective30 Jul 2023 19:46
The first trial of a brand new cancer drug in humans has proven, so far, to be:
Safe
Effective (44% disease control rate) in ovarian cancer
Some effect in other indications, yet to be confirmed exactly, but at least one tumour shrinkage.
So, overall, not as effective as some of the ambitious expectations of some holders.
But, let's actually analyse what we have:
There is no other treatment in late stage ovarian cancer that comes anywhere close to 44%, or that has no side effects. This alone should be massive.
Humans are different to mice, so we are not seeing exactly the same progress, but this a phase 1 trial, and the results are really quite remarkable for a novel compound.
A strong possibility is that many of the patients were so ill when signing up for Modi-1 - literally a last roll of the dice - that either
their immune system wasn't strong enough to benefit from Modi-1 alone, or
They simply did not have the strength / will to go on.
I hope this doesn't sound too heartless - I have witnessed this myself with both my parents passing in the last 3 years, and my Dad in particular was ill for so long (not cancer and not technically terminal) that he lost the will to live.
The devil will be in the detail, in terms of biopsy and scan results, and that detail will no doubt be pored over by potential partners.
In the meantime, the CI cohort should fair much better because my understanding is they will not be as ill as the mono-therapy cohort, and the CI 'taking the brakes off' the immune system will be a powerful combination with the Modi-1 vaccine encouraging the generation of killer cd4 t cells to target the tumor(s).
It's still very much all to play for, and as I've mentioned before, the genmab deal is worth double the current market cap ALONE. So you are basically getting modi-1 and the mod pipeline, scib1/iscib1 and the immunobody pipeline, avidimab and glymab for free. ALL of which are potential multi-billion pound assets.
I have been buying the last week. Buy when there's blood on the streets! I seriously think people selling now will be kicking themselves before the Autumn is here. Especially LTHs who know all about the science and know the characters that pop up here and manipulate sentiment.
Having said that, I agree with other posters that it is foolish to listen to anonymous advice from a BB - do your own research, ignore the noise and make up your own mind.