Member Info for Montmuzard

I'm very confident. All the evidence points to this being a success. What I don't pay attention to is people spamming message boards - including ADVFN as well - with unevidenced, illiterate nonsense like "The Rampy Tweets seem to of dried up as well" (whatever that means). Green binned.

If they have found water again, why is the test still ongoing weeks after the first perforation? Junior explorers don't spend limited cash on flowing wells that don't keep flowing. Vecta was wrapped up in days.

Yes, agreed - they can't mess about at this stage, especially if it is very serious material news that will precipitate a rerating of the company from junior explorer to nascent producer. Every T properly crossed and every I properly dotted. No perceptions of market signalling.

The thing that I'm taking some confidence from is (a) the fact that they have not yet released any bad news at all, which they surely would have by now if there were bad news in-bound and (b) the fact that they seem to be completely watertight. Silence right now is golden IMO.

I think it's very likely Sproule are working through all or most of the data now. My assumption is that it will still take the company some time to get the language right in the update, be clear on commerciality (and even development pathways) and make sure the Nomad is happy. So the base case is probably that they will take the long weekend to finish it and update the market on Tuesday or later next week. Equally, though, I'd be over the moon if they were ready to drop big news tomorrow and we had a mega rerate going into the long weekend.

1 code for the believers!

Exactly - you wouldn't keep running an EWT with all the plant on site and what not for over a month if there was nothing exciting happening

Of course the Tweets have dried up - the company are close to highly material news and playing this with the straightest of straight bats.

We're now almost two weeks from the "couple more weeks" tweet, which means the Lower Leadville must be long done and the Upper is probably finished or close to finishing. The fact they're still going suggests that gas is flowing well. The big question is how quickly: Howard was hoping for between 1000 Mcf/d and 3000 Mcf/d. If we're anywhere in the middle of that - let alone the upper end - this becomes a £75m-£100m company instantly IMO.

It’s not 50/50. That would be entirely binary. It’s more like 80/20. These assets are considerably more derisked than an open field where you hope there’s some helium and are drilling for the first time.

It would be nice if we kept moving up now before news. The opening gap would be much better at 0.08 from 0.05 than 0.05 from 0.035 but needs a bit more FOMO and buying pressure.

HE1 did 1300% in a couple of weeks. I'll be amazed if we get to a near-£200m MCap short-term, but stranger things have happened. Over a billion dollars-worth of helium at current spot prices suggests that there is a huge disconnect at present.

Agreed. It could bag and bag over days, especially if the board cleverly sequence newsflow on development to follow the initial excitement around commerciality. Once a pathway to development is clear the very nature of the company and how it is viewed by the market changes: no longer a speculative helium explorer, but a producer with a commercial discovery about to be developed.

And the rest. If the news is what we all hope for, I’m expecting a nice gap on open and then 200% from there into 0.1p+ territory. This is binary: we could become a £60m company essentially instantly, climbing up towards a £100m+ MCap as development plans are confirmed. If the flow rates are at the upper end of what Howard was suggesting in his last video then you’re talking multiple wells at Sagebrush that can generate $30k+ a day at current helium prices (and much more if you go on the spot price). These are potentially huge numbers: $10m/yr or more for each well. How many wells could sagebrush and coyote wash sustain and how quickly could they get there? One those sorts of numbers, the market will be pricing in lots and quickly, and offtakers will be knocking down the door to help finance the buildout and get secure supply as quickly as possible. If they add that sort of news to the early RNSs, I reckon we could pushing £100m MCap in pretty short order. Fingers crossed, anyway.

Nearly a month since the Lower Leadville was perforated and no news or leaks yet. That bodes exceptionally well. If Sagebrush was a duster it would all have been wrapped up some time ago. No "encouraging" tweets. Just a terse RNS saying it hasn't worked out. We're well into the timezone for massive news now. Could land any day.

Dip over - let's start moving north now!

Ilyan was two weeks between drilling results and maiden JORC. We're in that window now for Beehive and then an upgrade to the project as a whole.

11.9-12.3 is the current spread - primed for another big move IMO

The dilution was 2.5% of the company. Minimal. So against the closing share price it puts us at about 11.9p, but with 500k more cash. Those shares have also likely gone into very sticky hands. I suspect the market won’t even notice and we’ll keep pressing on towards 20p this week. This is a full rerate in action of a company that has now been largely derisked and should be worth around £100m if not more.

The potentially revenues are so enormous that there’s no real ceiling on the share price. It could anywhere over the next few weeks just on sentiment and FOMO.

Well, any one of DESNZ/UKIB engagement, a strategic funding framework or capacity/offtake agreements would send this stratospheric.

That's a really good point - if they know the big RNS is going to move the market by hundreds of percent and rearate the market cap fundamentally, they need it to be completely watertight.