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The company have gone very quiet on socials = carefully signing off technicals and legals to prepare news that could precipitate a material and transformational rerate

With helium concentrations of 2.76% confirmed, if commercial flow is anywhere near the top end anticipated by Sproule and the company's modelling as announced by Howard in the April interview (as much as 3000 Mcf/d) then we could multibag this week

One thing is for sure, it is now 53 days since they announced the start of the EWT, almost three weeks since they stated they were "encouraged by the progress being made and expect to be in a position to provide a more fulsome update shortly", and getting on for a fortnight since they confirmed the helium characteristics and mentioned "future completion and development planning".

You don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars testing a dry well for over a month nor waste time planning future development if you don't expect it to be commercial IMO

There's very little on the book here as far as I can see - it won't take a lot of volume to push towards 7p

Every sell is getting gobbled up

6p getting eaten up after that little mini dip

This is getting very exciting now. You don’t test a dry hole for six weeks.

That's roughly my target, and it's just £75m which would put QHE on a par with HEX, and could be reached quickly given the strong helium concentration and potentially high flow rates.

I don't think it matters when they release it. The implied Mcap will be inferred from the market from the flow rates and hopefully rising pressure, alongside expectations about the development pathway, and big money will be buying in to keep pushing us towards that regardless of where the starting point is.

If the helium concentration is 2.76% with a flow rate of 2500 Mcf/d across both zones, the market will know that that means $50K/day at $700/mcf (even more at spot prices), which in turn means easy financing conversations, implied derisking of the entire project including Coyote Wash and a very rapid path to commercial production.

The market will be thinking "that's $35m revenue from just the first two wells per year, so what are five or six across the acreage worth in two or three years' time?" and a very big chunk of that will get priced in very quickly IMO. Add in some juicy comments about advanced discussions with offtakers and it's rockets away.

I don't think it will take weeks for a big rise: if the flow rates are highly commercial, I think we're looking at instant rerate. Multi-bags within a couple of sessions IMO. With flow in the range Howard is expecting - 1000-3000 Mcf/d - this transforms the company into a £60m+ proposition overnight. If it's at the upper end of that range, QHE is arguably a £100m+ company. If it comes with financing news or offtake, all bets are off as that would mean a clear and rapid path to production.

Which is why they used the word “material” technical data in the last tweet. It’s not inside info if it’s not material, and it’s not material until it’s been confirmed by lab testing.

2.3 paid - going vertical now

500k shares at 2.1 just gone through

2.08p paid - feels very frisky here

About 1.94 - 2.04. Volume substantial.

Looks like we have some buying interest once more

You don't spend thousands (even tens of thousands) of dollars a day on testing a well for this amount of time if it's not likely to be commercial.

Mad that anyone is selling now. If we get a transformational RNS confirming commerciality - especially if the flow rates are genuinely exceptional - the MMs will gap the stock on open straight up to beyond 0.05p (possibly even higher) and keep pushing north from there.

If the news is what Howard intimated in his April video - confirmed helium concentrations around 2.76% and commercial flow rates between 1000 and 3000 Mcf/d - then all bets are off. This becomes a £60m+ (even £100m+) company overnight. You're talking each well generating $15m+ annually at current spot prices. I could see it bagging four or five times very quickly. Maybe more if they drip-feed news on development at the same time. There will be offtakers chomping at the bit to get secure supply.

Also, the fact that they talk about “future completion” is a huge green flag IMO. Why would you be planning on turning these holes into functioning wells if you weren’t expecting them to flow commercial gas?

There’s no way the Nomad would have sanctioned a tweet hinting at development of the resource if there was not evidence of potential commerciality. That tweet said as much as it could within disclosure guidelines.

I also find it very hard to believe that the company would have flowed both zones for around a month if there was not gas flowing (and they’ve confirmed there is) nor if the flow rates were not increasing as the wells cleaned up. That alone should give confidence.

I also don’t see that there would be any need for a “fulsome update” if there were not positive technical outcomes to report. If it was a duster, we would already have had an RNS stating that the well was dry and they were stopping to preserve cash. The fact we haven’t, over six weeks since they first announced the EWT was underway, is a great sign IMO.

An abridged version of what my AI bot has to say about yesterday's Tweet. It certainly steadies my nerves:

Yes, this tweet definitely dials up the confidence level compared to their previous statement. You don't mention future development planning if you think you are sitting on a dry hole.

Here is how to break down why this specific tweet is a massive step forward in confidence:

1. The Chemistry is Confirmed (No "Nasty" Surprises) "Preliminary #helium gas analysis has shown characteristics consistent with the original Drill Stem Test". What it means: The historic 1993 drill stem test (DST) at Sagebrush-1 showed a 2.76% helium concentration. In the helium world, anything over 0.5% to 1% is generally considered highly commercial. The Confidence Boost: The biggest risk when re-entering an old well is finding out the original data was wrong, or that the gas composition has degraded (e.g., filled with too much worthless carbon dioxide or water). By stating the preliminary analysis is consistent, they are essentially confirming that the high-grade 2.76% helium is actually down there.

2. "Valuable Technical Insight" = Pressure and Flow. "The ongoing program continues to provide valuable technical insight into the Leadville reservoir..." What it means: If the well wasn't flowing gas, they wouldn't be getting "ongoing technical insight." To get reservoir data during an extended production test, the well needs to be un-plugged and actively flowing so they can measure bottom-hole pressure and decline rates.

3. "Future Completion and Development Planning" "...and will assist with future completion and development planning". In oil, gas, and helium exploration, the "Development" phase only happens after a discovery is deemed commercially viable. The Exploration Life Cycle = Exploration - Appraisal/Testing - Development (Building Facilities/Pipelines) - Production. Why it signals high confidence: If the flow rates were abysmal or non-commercial, the update would say something vague like, "The data will be used to evaluate the future viability of the asset." By skipping straight to talking about how they will plan the development, management is strongly hinting that they believe they have a commercially viable project on their hands. They are likely already looking at where to place processing facilities or tie-ins to local infrastructure.

4. The Realistic Caveat: While this is undeniably a very bullish nudge to the market, remember that formal flow rates (how many million cubic feet of gas the well can produce per day) have still not been explicitly disclosed. Management is being highly strategic: they are drip-feeding positive data to keep the market excited, but saving the official, verified flow-rate numbers for a major Regulatory News Service (RNS) announcement. However, the pivot in language from "we are testing" to "we are planning development" tells you exactly which way they expect the scales to tip.