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What you on about? HEX is viable and producing. HE1 is miles away from production because the Capex is enormous and it's in Tanzania.

I think you're going to be disappointed in waiting for a significantly lower buy-in. The churn is almost done. And the QHE story is compelling precisely because it's already substantially derisked, it's in a secure jurisdiction with great infrastructure, it's neither too big nor too small so the Capex requirements are relatively inexpensive and what is will supply will only require a handful of consistent offtakers, and it is sitting on a very decent helium concentration and, we suspect, very decent flow rates.

Sure, it's not going to be worth billions like GEX theoretically could be. But it doesn't need to be, and it also doesn't face the same scale of risks or cash requirements that much bigger plays face in getting to production. It's a relatively simple story: confirm Sagebrush flow rates and helium concentrations, start developing with finance, offtake or JV partners, drill Coyote Wash while starting the build out, before you know it you have wells coming online that can generate upwards of $5m (and possibly a lot more) each year to support full development.

As soon as the RNS lands confirming commerciality, the market will start to price all of that in, and, I would assume, pretty quickly. We go from being a £15m junior explorer with a potential find to a commercial helium developer sitting on over $1bn worth of gas with a pathway to near-term exploitation.

If these wells were not potentially commercial, they wouldn't still be flowing them over a month since first perforation. The test would have been wrapped up ages ago, the company would be in hunkered-down cash saving mode, and the Nomad would have forced a disclosure. They certainly wouldn't have been tweeting as recently as yesterday about "Preliminary #helium gas analysis has shown characteristics consistent with the original Drill Stem Test" (i.e. confirming that gas is flowing at around 2.76%) or that the "ongoing program continues to provide valuable technical insight into the Leadville reservoir and will assist with future completion and development planning". That final bit - development planning - should give use huge confidence IMO. What would there be to develop if this test was not suggesting that commercial recovery is possible?

Anything above 1000 Mcf takes us to multiples: we become a £60m+ MCap company instantly. The conversation changes entirely from "can this junior explorer achieve commerciality?" to "how quickly can they get it out of the ground?" Even at 1000, each well will be generating $15,000 a day at $500/Mcf ($5m/yr).

But the company anticipates something higher - between 1000 and 3000 - so take the midpoint and calculate at today's rough spot price of $1000 and you suddenly get to $60,000 per day. That's $20m a year. Per well.

So, all being well, we could be talking very soon about commercial helium production that is generating somewhere between $5m/yr and $20m/yr per well. At the upper end, the Sagebrush Capex could pay for itself in a very short timeframe and then you're into drilling more wells and expanding.

What, then, would the NPV be of a company that has struck commercial helium on that scale, which has secure supply in a safe jurisdiction, and 1.1BCF with both of its projects essentially derisked, which, with, let's say five wells across the property, the very real prospect of generating annual revenues of a minimum $25m and possibly as much as $100m or more (in a context of rising helium prices) within a few years?

I reckon it's multiples of £16m personally, and the offtakers and potential JV-ers will be smashing down the doors.

I thought the tweet was cautiously bullish personally. Well, as bullish as they can be while sitting on material information and not being able to engage in market signalling. They’ve confirmed helium concentrations. They’ve indicated that the testing is still ongoing: why would you be spending precious cash and optimising the wells if it wasn’t potentially commercial? I also don’t think you would bother tweeting: if there wasn’t real progress, the nomad would force disclosure and you’d get a very terse RNS saying it wasn’t commercial and setting out next steps.

The line about "continues to provide valuable technical insight" implies that there is something (a) continuing (i.e. improving) and (b) valuable (i.e. worth continuing). I just cannot see that they would still be spending money on this if it wasn't likely to be commercial. Of course, there’s a difference between flowing at 500 mcf and 3000 mcf, but the former is all we need for commerciality and anything more is all upside.

Plus, we don’t know when that tweet was drafted. It’s quite conceivable that the physical testing programme is close to wrapping up and they’ve already done a good chunk of the analysis. We might not get an RNS tomorrow but I’m still hopeful of next week after the bank holiday.

MMs trying to shake it on the most limited selling pressure. Watch the bounce this afternoon.

7.2p to sell again already

I think someone had a stop loss set at 7p - they dipped it down and took their 70K shares out for 6.98p and then it ticked back up. A few more sellers were encouraged to bail. Rinse, repeat. Higher lows and all that.

There's not really any volume on the sell side - they're just dropping it on a couple of sells. If this morning is anything to go by, the reversal will be significant.

Wide spread 7.2 - 7.5 - looks like they're trying to shake a few out over lunch.

Not even slowing down for the lunch lull - 8p is about to go here IMO

Every mini-dip is getting absolutely chewed up

Volume is insane - this does another bag today

Imagine being shaken out at 5.6 earlier - you'd be sick

Big buys going through at full ask well over 6p now

6p paid again - this will turn quickly if the volume is anything to go by

This is about to bounce off 5.8 now - MMs fully loaded with weak hands stock for next leg up I reckon.

They produced almost 12,000 barrels of oil too last year - that alone would be worth well over $1m at current spot prices.

I'm looking forward to when it gaps to 0.06, does 100% to 0.12 and keeps overshooting. Hopefully tomorrow.

If it were news we did not want to hear, it would not be copious and abundant. By definition, it would be terse: the well did not flow.

At the very least, we can surmise that there has been sufficient flow to make the EWT worth continuing. Of course, it might not be commercial. There might be caveats or more work required to fully understand the formation. But equally we know that Halliburton achieved flow with just a very small DST in a context of mud damage. Once that is cleared and a proper test has occurred, it's highly plausible - given how long it has been ongoing - that they have flowed commercially. They also only need 500 Mcf/d for this at 2.76% helium. Anything above that - especially Howard's anticipated up to 3000 Mcf/d - is serious, serious upside.

Thursday intraday would be ideal. Lots of FOMO, nice 100% rise into close. Gap up to 0.10p on Friday morning, another 100% into the bank holiday weekend. If Carlsberg did RNSs that is how it would go.

Just remember, if they confirm 2.76% concentrations of helium and get anywhere near Howard's anticipated 1000-3000 Mcf/d flow rates, it means each well can generate over $30,000/day at just $500 (but some spot prices are actually double that). This becomes a £75m-100m company instantly IMO.