RE: Buy out Option17 Mar 2026 15:40
"He didnt say that at all he clearly says they have an exclusive option to buy 80M 30% stake at the IPO price, which means zero upside unless he is talking absolute rubbish..."
What he actually said was: "We have an exclusive option to buy their 30% out at the current valuation of the IPO which, upon a discovery, would be very positive". Again, it's a poor choice of words, but it's obvious what he meant if you follow the logic. He didn't mean the IPO currently. He meant the prevailing value of GLND at the time of an attempt to buy out the 80m share. Otherwise why mention a discovery? The scale of any discovery is irrelevant if he meant that GLND could buy 80m out for whatever tomorrow's price is.
Also, why would 80m have signed up to anything else? It's still their licence for now: the 70% that GLND control is earned through financing the drill, the trade off from which is that 80m get exposure to the immediate upside from a big strike for their remaining 30%. If GLND want to secure it, they pay market prices.
All the exclusivity means is that 80m have to give GLND first refusal. It's obvious what the endgame is: they strike big, prove the asset, GLND sees its MCap rise to a billion or two, and at that point a major sweeps in with an offer, once GLND have bought up 80m's 30%.
"...and he also said this gives glnd massive upside potential, there wouldnt be any upside if he had to pay face value"
Of course there would. If 80m's 30% share is worth, say, $500m in 18 months' time, it implies that GLND has an MCap of about $1.6bn. GLND then buys them out for that much money and, in return, gets exclusive access to an oilfield with c.13bn barrels of oil in it. It's not like the value of the company rerates to the total in-ground value of the suspected oil (which would be $1.3tn at current prices) and so the gap between $500m and a whatever can be extracted from a 30% share of $1.3tn minus costs, taxes and depreciation (which will be huge in Greenland) is the margin that GLND will profit from (or, rather, what the major that buys out 100% of GLDN/80m will profit from). It's still tens, if not hundreds of billions potentially.
See slide 9 of the corporate presentation: https://www.80mile.com/sites/default/files/2026-01/80M%20Corporate%20Presentation%20v4.pdf
Why would 80m connect their 30% ownership to 3.9bn barrels of oil if they could only realise $90m of that value? Also, I struggle to see why either side would negotiate such a restrictive agreement that determined the price of a buyout now in a context where nobody knows, for sure, what is there. It's too risky for everyone on both the up and the downside. Much better to discover whether there's really 13bn barrels, and, once confirmed, make sure everyone gets paid for it.