Member Info for Montmuzard

48 paid again - won't take a lot to push over 50

Looks like the MMs gathered what they wanted and are now pushing forward

Ask just ticked up - 44 paid.

I think a new base has been set here around .40 now though. Not least since what is left of the free float will be getting soaked up as people wait for news which is surely very close. I've bought 2.5m shares myself today and will be hanging onto them.

The question I'm asking is why would you provide short-term funding to pursue an acquisition if there wasn't a target in sight?

I agree that the share price could go completely nuts here this week. We could be entering silliness territory. At 12-15p, only the cash is priced in. So you still need to account for: (i) mitigated risk in terms of the deal being complete and the infrastructure effects for MBO's business scaling, (ii) the related prospect of significant revenue growth, and (iii) the effects of a very tight share register which could be a substantial catalyst for quick growth. We could get a perfect storm in a day or two: a juicy MBO RNS coinciding with an end to the Iran situation and loads of hot money jumping out of oilers and into techs. Add that to the fact there is limited free float and it could be the mother of all squeezes.

If there's no RNS coming today, then it's surely coming @ 7am tomorrow, in which case this could be the last chance for people to get in before it rockets.

Calm before the storm...

Deal confirmation pre-market and then big gap up on open will see 10p left well behind. This is becoming a company worth tens of millions now and just over 100m shares in issue, a huge chunk held by the board and the rest in sticky hands = a recipe for fireworks.

I'm as bullish as the next man, but I don't see us getting 80m to a £10bn valuation. I think that's madness. I predict we get our share of Jameson taken out for 30% of somewhere between $2-3bn by a major at some point in the next 18 months. So a dividend somewhere around 20p all being well.

This is exciting and exceeding expectations. I was hoping for 2p today. Reckon we could easily do 200% or more.

It's unquestionably around 30% of GLND at the current time, as the GLND share price reflects present value and will do until the point that 80m agree to dispose of their 30% at whatever the prevailing value of the company is then. Plus, 80m has other projects beyond Jameson. Sure, GLND could end up being worth billions more beyond that point, but chances are the entire 100% will be disposed of to a major at the same time for (I would guess) $2-3bn

It’s not that much in the big scheme of things and they’re well cashed up now. The cash they have accounts for most of the current share price so plenty of potential upside to be priced in by the market now.

If they try a shake today they’re gonna get nowhere

Only two instances of visible gold have been publicly announced as far as I recall, so a third is hugely exciting.

I'd like to know where that 20% claim comes from too as I haven't seen it either. Everything I've seen from the PELI and 80m Directors has been considerably more bullish and emphasising the asymmetry here.

7p has just appeared on the book 👀

1.50 gone already - going to be a fun time running into the NASDAQ listing

Quite right Ashton. People just have to read the farmout agreement. It's there in black and white. Clause 10.3: "The Parties agree that, following completion of the Second Transfer, the Parties will commence negotiations in good faith for March GL to acquire the remaining thirty percent (30%) Participating Interest in the Jameson Concession from 80 Mile on the same terms as the Pelican Transaction (to the extent such transaction completes)".

Commence. Negotiations. In good faith. If the price was already agreed, there would be no need to negotiate. If GLND had an automatic right to buy the 30% stake, there would also be no need to negotiate. The Pelican transaction is a point-in-time IPO event, whereas Clause 10.3 negotiations happen after the second well is drilled and new information exists. Those negotiations would be logically and legally pointless if they were not dependent on the information that emerges from the drill (and 80m would have had no interest in agreeing to this Clause if it did not offer exposure to the upside for its 30% retained share).

In fact, the company wouldn't even have needed to retain a specific share of 30% in this scenario, as their share only makes sense vis-a-vis the future value of GLND's 70% share. Otherwise, the agreement would have literally just said words to the effect of "if GLND is happy with the drilling we will pay 80m $XXm for the rest of the licence".

All this is saying is that the broad framework (the 70/30 split, listing vehicle, timing, mechanics) is broadly agreed. What it means is that, if the project works and the IPO happens (which it clearly will) the parties will sit down and discuss a potential full buyout, loosely referencing how the IPO deal was structured. It does not mean “GLND can buy the 30% at IPO price” or “80 Mile must sell at that price” or “valuation is locked today”. If GLND truly had the right to buy the 30% at IPO price, the FOA would include things like a call option clause, a defined strike price or formula, a specific time window for exercise, and a binding obligation to sell. None of this is in there and it's drafted much more loosely, especially in terms of legal enforcement.

As far as I'm concerned, the agreement that GLND has is for 80m to not act foolishly if and when they strike a bonanza: i.e. once they get a decent offer from a major to take out 100% for $XXbn, 80m negotiate in good faith to give up the 30% to realise that offer and don't dig their heels in unduly.

There’s no need to be so rude. Nobody’s denying that GLND will eventually buy 80m out. That’s clearly the intended endgame. But the price they do it for won’t be on the basis of a gentlemen’s agreement. That’s just nonsense.