Member Info for Monkshood

In the UK they are very low levels this year (classed as baseline at the moment)

'worst and most worrying' ..
What most people do not realise is that delta (or any other variant) are not all identical. Even just looking at the UK data, there have been mutations sequenced for approximately 50 of the amino acids on the S protein of delta .Some are at a low frequency others occur at a higher frequency, most are at different loci but some are multiple variations to the same amino acid (eg mutation seems frequent at 484).
Many, although not all, of the changes in Omicron that concern them have occurred, but have not become established in delta. For example the change N501Y has been sequenced 108 times and there have been 54 sequenced instances of E484A.
This is just in the UK, so what this does show is that although these mutations can occur in the circulating variant it does not mean that they will necessarily become established and a problem.
Clearly having lots of changes in a single variant makes it rather more of an unknown but it is by no means given that it will be a 'game changer' .

That's because they are buying their own shares - nearly £2.5M spent last week.

It's a shame- it had been looking good with US airport footfall back to 90% pre-covid levels (up 10-15% from the summer), things looking good in the UK with increased footfall in stations and hospitals nearing normal, UK flights were still only at 66% pre-covid but this is still better than in the summer.
Aside from the direct impact of flight cancellations to red zone countries it will certainly mean that people are more wary about going on, or booking holidays in the short term. Hopefully the past couple of months revenues and a reasonable Christmas run in for the High Street (hard to see this being disrupted) will give them a bit a cash in hand to carry them through until things become clearer.

Nowadays you can just order the whole sequence in a expression vector. I have used this method to generate synthetic proteins to use as standards in mass spec (look up QconCATs).They could generate the modified spike protein themselves quite quickly, but I would imagine that every contract lab is working on this flat out so they will probably be able to purchase it more easily, especially if they wanted the glycosylated form.
I would think that they have a good idea of where the Affimers bind by now so if there was a mutation in the primary sequence (order of amino acids) which would affect binding they would know.
As their assay seems to be affected by freezing samples (have they actually confirmed this is the reason for the problem at PD?) then it implies that the binding is also dependent upon the secondary/tertiary structures(the way it folds up). Whilst this can be modelled, it is not a perfect science and the number of mutations and deletions in this variant it would make it harder to be certain about any impact on the binding by in silico analysis alone.

My interpretation is that last year we were concerned about the impact of a single mutation on their test (D614), now we have 36 more to worry about.

Just it has almost all of the mutations they worry about for overcoming vaccines ...

Early in the year there were three sub lineages, of which delta was one , in India the other two had some of the problematic mutations (E484) but proved not as transmissible as delta and so declined in frequency. We can only hope that this variant will turn out to be the same but the early signs are not great.
No idea if the mutations will impact on any of the LFT's either S or N (but there are a lot of mutations in S compared to N even allowing for its larger size). Some of the changes are common to delta and others (deletion@60-70) were in alpha, Avacta's test worked with both of these but there are a lot of other new changes as well.
We will just have to wait and see if this does become the dominant variant, if not it will not matter, if it does then we will need to await for them to test it on Nu.

The letters are the amino acids changes eg proline (P) to serine (S) the numbers their position. - means a deletion.

For those interested these are the mutations in one sample of B.1.1.529.

I am sure most will be aware of the key changes they worry about (484 for example), so it is understandable why they are concerned ( I have included the equivalent from delta for reference).
I will let you draw your own conclusions re the potential for impact on different LFT's given the respective mutation rates in each of the proteins.
B.1.1.529.
ORF1a: K856R, V1887I, S2083-, L2084I, A2710T, T3255I, P3395H, L3674-, S3675-, G3676-, I3758V
ORF1b: P314L, I1566V
S: A67V, H69-, V70-, T95I, G142-, V143-, Y144-, Y145D, N211-, L212I, G339D, S371L, S373P, S375F, K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493R, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H, T547K, D614G, H655Y, N679K, P681H, N764K, D796Y, N856K, Q954H, N969K, L981F
E: T9I
M: D3G, Q19E, A63T
N: P13L, E31-, R32-, S33-, R203K, G204R
ORF9b: P10S, E27-, N28-, A29-

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/africa?f_clade_membership=21K

Delta
ORF1a: S302F, G661S, P971L, Q1292H, A1306S, P2046L, P2287S, T2408I, V2930L, Y3010F, T3255I, T3646A
ORF1b: P314L, G662S, T797I, P1000L, A1918V
S: T19R, T95I, G142D, E156-, F157-, R158G, L452R, T478K, D614G, P681R, D950N
ORF3a: S26L, L85F
E: S55C
M: I82T
ORF7a: V82A, T120I
ORF7b: T40I
ORF8: D119-, F120-
N: D63G, R203M, G215C, D377Y
ORF9b: T60A

There are 37 changes in the Spike protein of this new variant including 10 in the receptor binding domain. This is nearly 6% of the amino acids in the S1 protein. It may well still work, but this variant will be the biggest test of how well conserved their binding sites are.
If it does still work with a comparable efficiency then it will be a good endorsement of the test but we will have to wait and see if this is the case.

What are the thoughts on the share buyback? They are spending up to 20p per share on this over the next year (about 1/5 of the total dividends payed this year).
The shares will go in treasury (so not cancelled) and then be reissued to staff. The alternative, I assume, would have been to have issued new shares. Doing it the way they are means that there is no dilution and will affect the EPS in a positive way with regards their performance criteria compared to issuing shares (convenient for them....).
What I am not sure about is the time these are vested over and the real actual cost as some will have a cost (to the employee ) at vesting which would then accrue to the company.
I have looked at the Annual and remuneration reports but I am not skilled enough in this area to calculate what the overall cost will be and the time fame it is over, has anyone done this analysis?

US airport footfall is now around 90% of pre-covid levels, EU flights are around 80% and UK 66% (rolling averages comparing comparable dates). The US opening seemed to have more impact on the US (up from 80% to 90% since opening up) than on the UK /EU numbers which dipped slightly (down 2.5% relative to 2019) in November.
I have not found data for the RoW but interested if anyone monitors it.
These are all a good improvement on when the company last presented their results, so as others have said it looks positive for the next update.

It does seem rather irrational, Spain, Morocco and the UK look to be in a good position re-covid. There is perhaps a bit more of a question over what will happen in the US but with some schools previously being off for over a year, they seem (as here ) fairly determined to keep them open this time.

Most of the German train revenue is protected.
From the Half Year Report-
'In the second half, we expect to receive subsidies from the local passenger transport authorities to compensate for these reduced levels of patronage, which should lead to an improved performance for the balance of the year'

Yes, I can read (even if my spelling/grammar is often a bit odd). This is typically a polite and helpful BB, could we keep it this way.
In my experience they do not put statements such as this in randomly so I was curious what people thought they would be interested in acquiring.

Does anyone know what this is alludes to?
' including the potential acquisition of new technology capability to accelerate the Company's current go to market strategy.'

From Bloomberg-
Germans are feverishly snapping up Covid-19 test kits at drug stores and pharmacies as the country buckles under soaring infection rates and the government tightens the rules to access shops, restaurants and gyms.
Home-use infection tests that provide a rapid read-out via a nasal swab were hard to get in recent days. Major drug stores like Dirk Rossmann GmbH and DM Drogerie Markt GmbH had temporarily sold out online, and many pharmacies said they’ve been overrun by unprecedented demand for the kits, which usually retail for as little as 1.50 euros ($1.70) each.
The rush for kits is reminiscent of last year’s frantic bulk purchases of toilet paper, face masks and dried pasta as Germany headed into its first lockdown.
Two points-
There is clearly a strong demand for the LFT's supply available (although at 1.5 euros there will not be a large profit margin).
I always thought that it was just the Brit's who panic purchased loo rolls.......

From HMG vaccine surveillance report.
'In order to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection, repeat asymptomatic testing of a defined cohort of individuals is required.
Studies have now reported on vaccine effectiveness against infection in healthcare workers, care home residents and the general population (12, 13, 14, 15). With the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness against infection has been estimated at around 65% with Vaxzevria and 80% with Comirnaty (4)'

A good presentation, lots of potential for further expansion in the US. Increasing numbers flying from UK airports, coupled to their expansion into tech offerings with Inmotion at these sites, should start to see revenues increase from this, their hardest hit, segment.
It seems to have gone down well with II's as there has been a steady increase in the sp since the results.

'The Group made two new strategic investments during the period; Autins Group Plc and Velocity Composites Plc. The Directors believe that the Strategic Investments continue to be the most likely drivers of growth in shareholder value over the remainder of the current year and so have concentrated the remainder of this CEO Statement on their operations and prospects.'
'In September 2021, Braveheart acquired 4.13% of Velocity Composites plc ("Velocity") (AIM: VEL) at a cost of £373,000. Velocity is a leading supplier of advanced composite material kits to the Aerospace sector Velocity Composites' clients include multi-national manufacturers of composite parts and assemblies, who in turn deliver to the world's leading civil and military aircraft manufacturers. The Airbus A320, A330, A350, A380, Eurofighter Typhoon, F35 Joint Strike Fighter, Boeing 737, Boeing 787 and V22 Osprey are all constructed using parts manufactured from Velocity's kits.'