RE: DFD Research27 Sep 2022 14:11
FD report says:
Lithium – Supply Growth Unable to Match EV Demand
The future of lithium demand is fundamentally tied to the continual growth of EVs/hybrids. We forecast that Li-ion batteries will account for >77% of all lithium consumption in 2022 (see Figure 10), the largest component of demand being EVs themselves. It is also important to realise that growth (in real terms) in usage is occurring in all other lithium segments as well. Current shortages are, in fact, a structural deficit, driven by growth in lithium consumption outstripping supplies, with our internal macro modelling showing that this structural deficit is unlikely to dissipate any time before 2030.
...Over the past several decades, China has strategically sought to dominate the lithium battery market. For example, CATL has emerged from nascent beginnings to become the world’s largest lithium manufacturer in under a decade. Whilst prices for lithium projects/companies were languishing during the last minerals downturn, the Middle Kingdom busied itself with acquiring all the earlier stage lithium projects it could. Despite only having 3% (see Figure 12) of global reserves, and approximately 14% of annual primary production (see Figure 11), due to its large domestic battery demand (72GWh), in 202011 China controlled ~80% of the world’s raw lithium refining, ~77% of the world’s cell capacity and ~60% of the world’s lithium component manufacturing.