Member Info for moneyhawk

Vigenere, its in the RNS that told us about the deal to take over Kabwe.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=JLP&ArticleCode=i48f57l2&ArticleHeadline=Jubilee_gains_full_control_of_the_Kabwe_Project

The relevant bit copied below. It looks pretty clear from the conditions of it that we couldn't take on 100% without government approval, hence a 24 month window to obtain that approval.

"In terms of the Updated Agreements Jubilee is further granted, for a period of 24 months from the effective date of the Updated Agreements, an irrevocable free option to acquire 100% of the issued Shares in EML (the "Acquisition"). Following the Acquisition Jubilee's equity interest in Kabwe Operations and EML will increase to 100%.

The implementation of the Acquisition following such option being exercised by Jubilee will be subject to the following key conditions:

(a) receipt of all regulatory consents required in Zambia for the change of control of the Project;

(b) payment by Jubilee of all relevant taxes in Zambia in relation to the Acquisition. "

TBTT, does seem that BMR are heading towards being wound up, and having given away the family silver they're now having a house clearance sale to get rid of the rest.

There's been talk of them relisting to raise funds for buying up a new project. But seems rather far fetched to me that they could do that when they couldn't get a NOMAD in order to comply with listing rules, or raise funds to just to maintain the stakes they already had in Kabwe and Star Zinc.

One other factor though is that we haven't taken over 100% of Enviro Processing yet (The BMR Zambian subsidiary). The terms of the deal were that we got 87.5%, with a free option for 100% following Zambian government approval for the change in ownership of that company.

Don't forget about the rights issue shares either. There's bound to be some who bought RI shares that don't want to keep that extra money tied up for any longer and are now thinking a 10% gain in 2 months is good enough.

All depends on individuals strategy and appetite for risk.

Late matched trades so far this month:

2nd Jan - 300776 shares @16:33 for 2.5p & @16:36 for 2.25p
3rd Jan - 987707 shares @16:35 for 2.5p & @16:42 for 2.25p
4th Jan - 530374 shares @16:36 for 2.45p & @16:41 for 2.25p
7th Jan - 776955 shares @16:36 for 2.45p & @16:48 for 2.3p

Total = 2,595,812

If it is BMR selling then there is still someway to go. We know for certain they have sold just over 32m shares in the past 6 months, and they still had 31,152,693 on the last holdings notification we're likely to see from them.

The previous sales that were notified were managed, with buyers lined up to take the shares. So the pattern of late trades being reported would fit with them selling. And with CB being on both BoD's you'd think he'll be doing his best to ensure BMR get the best price possible without collapsing the JLP share price.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Yukon in the longer term. When I first saw the news and that it was being put in a new subsidiary, my initial thought was that its an ideal project for the company to develop on its own using some proceeds from an eventual outright sale of Icewine.

Might be Troajan, but this is for the 4th trading day in a row now, always for a different number of shares, but around the same time each day, 16:36 for one trade and a small gap to the matching trade. The difference with todays is that there's a price of 2.3p involved instead of the 2.25p we've seen for the last 3 days.

Assuming the overall basket price we're getting and the costs haven't changed much, I also reckon earnings for last quarter should be in the region of £2m at Hernic. Add to last quarter gives us £3.9m earnings for the year so far, and means sometime around the end of next week we'll probably be equal to last years earnings total at Hernic, and there's still 5.5 months left in our reporting year.

Not bad progress over the year!

And add to we've got fine chrome kicking in now at DCM, platcro PGMs starting next month, and assuming we're also starting to earn from our new chrome acquisition today.

All looking pretty good for accounts this year and next, and that's before we consider Kabwe and potential earnings there.

He should really do his public duty and pick up the phone to tell BP, Shell, Exxon, Repsol, Conoco, Eni, Oil Search etc etc that they're all wrong and they'll never make any money from oil in Alaska. lol

While we're on the subject of quarterly figures, what does everyone expect this time for Hernic?

We know 2,500+oz in Oct, maybe the same for Nov, and usually a bit of a slow down over Christmas/new year. So I reckon about 6,500 oz, which is roughly an 80% increase from the same quarter the year before.

Just a query, when have we ever released news of a salt water find? And why would Baker Hughes, whose well regarded expertise is in extracting oil from the ground, find this encouraging?

I don't think todays news is really anything that should move the SP, its only confirming that the plan we already know about is progressing as previously stated. The SP rising today (and this year in general) is probably more to do with the previous drop which was overdone imo.

We'll hopefully start to see a fairly steady rise up to the spud date now, as traders who sold out on the basis there was no farm out prior to year end and nothing much will be happening for a month or two start to buy again in anticipation of more substantial news. We know there'll be no major news on Winx until at least mid-end of Feb, but the farmout could come anytime between now and end of March.

Interesting month or two ahead!

That's true, the money has to clear first. But I'd assume the funds from us have already been paid into a solicitors client account ready for transfer to the seller, so that shouldn't cause any kind of hold up?

The 10th Dec RNS does say

"Jubilee will take ownership and operational control of the Target on the 7th of January 2019."

No 'if' or 'maybe' in this, so have to assume in the absence of any further information we have either completed already or will be later in the day, and by the end of the day we will own new assets currently generating £4.3m earnings per year.

Weeble, yes I agree, more likely that we'll see a holdings RNS soon for someone accumulating. Volumes so far this month are pretty ordinary and don't give any indication of big sells or buys. But the trades going through at 2.25p for 3 days in a row (much lower than the current Bid, and the same price as BMRs last sale), would suggest that there is some deal making going on in the background.

We may not get an RNS to say when BMR have sold the rest of their holding. They're below 3% now, so no reason for any further sales to be officially reported.

That would be nice! Not sure about Q1 though, maybe more likely later in the year. I think the unconventional farmout will be taking priority, and planned for H2. But who knows, it could be possible. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's already been a few discussions about it with the parties in the current data room to gauge interest for when we are ready.

A bit of a pattern emerging here, 3rd day in a row and another 2.25p trade, after close for 530,374 shares. This one matched to a trade at 2.45p.

Looking at the map posted up earlier

http://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Maps/NorthSlope_NotificationLesseNov2018_Labeled.pdf

The winx leases are surrounded by Oil Search, Conoco Philips and Respol. They've proved there's oil all around us, and it's got to be highly unlikely we've managed to find a spot right in the middle of them that will turn out to be water instead of oil.

Anyone else noticed that most of the trades here this week are flagged as "single protected transaction" on this site, and also have a negotiated trade flag on the London Stock Exchange site?

Not sure it means anything and volumes are pretty usual for us this week, but we did get a lot of trades flagged like this prior to the 44m trade last month.

Thanks Brom, lets hope the DOG won't be affected. It looks like the shutdown could carry on for quite a while, no sign of Trump caving in yet unless he gets some money for his wall.