Member Info for moneyhawk

lol, maybe one day we'll get to see some million dollar trades here, but a long way to go till we do :)

Reaction today on a pretty minor detail that was almost a foregone conclusion bodes very well for when we get some substantive news.

Visitor, that remains a question mark. Its not been disclosed how the earnings will be split once capex is recovered, other than we have a profit share agreement.

Its not too much of an issue, as by then we will have further income streams giving continued earnings growth at a corporate level. But it would be a good bonus if whatever the split will be can be improved in our favour.

I guess that will depend on just how good the new process is. If it delivers sizable % gains in chrome recovered, that's going to be a very attractive proposition to the new owner.

Also worth looking at the Oil Search presentation from October. Page 8 contains this line:

"Already competitive $3.10/bbl acquisition cost will be reduced with a successful 2019 appraisal programme"

https://www.oilsearch.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/26152/091018-OSH-Investor-Presentation.PDF

They obviously think $3.10 was a good price, and ties in with a lot of the comments made by DW on the price range per barrel we could be looking at.

A thought on the fine chrome - it may pave the way for a better deal at hernic. We don't earn from the chrome there so its not really in our interests to incur expense in upgrading the plant unnecessarily. Maybe a new deal involving a chrome profit share and/or renegotiation of the future pgm profit split is on the way.

Hillbear, depends on how you view the increase. On % terms, then yes, but it looks like we are gaining more on MCAP than rmp.

I don't think we'll get an update on kabwe until the deal for Sable is completed. That could take some time, but until they know if they're refurbishing an existing plant or building a new plant, its a bit up in the air imo.

And LC, if you're reading this, I hope to be immediately proved wrong again!

Its nice to be immediately proved wrong and see the update is sooner than expected!

More or less as expected, slightly below the figure I guessed at, but still good.

Looks like a further update will be made on Platcro chrome, but we have confirmation that the purchase has gone through.

HH, agree with that. The permit was just a formality isn't really significant, we knew it was on the way, but it is at least reassuring its now been issued.

Hydrocarbons found close by on the first drill of the year in the same formation we're targeting is very positive. Presumably they might have time to start flowtesting that before we have even started drilling.

Last week of Jan for the quarterlies is my guess to.

For this update its really only Hernic's figures that will be of interest. The figures from DCM will be largely irrelevant because the fine chrome circuit was started until late December so won't give us any indications on how profitable it will be. I'm expecting/guessing a figure of around 6,500oz PGMs for the quarter, so around 10% increase from last quarter, and huge increase from the corresponding quarter in 2017.

I also think this current quarter (figures in April) will probably be the last substantial production increase at Hernic, where we should be at or very close to the target of 7,500oz PGMs (2,500oz per month or 30,000oz). After that any revenue/earnings increases at Hernic will only be coming from PGM price improvements or further efficiencies made.

But we will see the other projects ramping up during this time, so earnings growth will continue each quarter after Hernic flattens out.

Its certainly good that JLP are now starting to do enough to generate these kinds of discussions!

Mcmac's view on the palladium figure does sound quite plausible. Maybe if someone has an hour to spare one day they can re-listen to the webcast to confirm what LC said about it. But either way, it seems whatever the palladium content is, its compensating for the current platinum price.

One day, maybe even this year, we'll be having discussions on production and price of Vanadium, and how that's going to affect our quarterly figures :)

Platcro will be an interesting comparison when we get the first figures at full production. It may be that more PGMs are produced than at Hernic, but the revenue might not be any higher depending on the PGM split in the tailings.

As for DCM, we can live in hope that one day they will eventually turn the £m's worth of PGMs sitting on the surface into cash.

Old news now, but a worth a reminder what DW said in the Vox interview back in October:

https://audioboom.com/posts/7042048-88-energy-88e-tlou-energy-tlou-safestay-ssty-and-chris-bailey-on-cake-dnlm-smwh-hl

Approx 2:50min

Q What’s the expected NPV of upcoming drill winx 1 or in the ground value of oil in the region

A From a regulations perspective we’re not actually allowed to put out statements regarding valuations. But what we can say is that we agree with the breakeven prices that have been published by oil search and Conoco Philips, and those are in the range of $35-$40 a barrel. In so far as the value of oil in the ground, oil search paid $3.10 for discovered oil in the ground when the oil price was $40

Approx 9:40min
Q Is the interest still there from multiple tier one companies and are you still hopeful to complete the farmout deal by year ending 2018?

A If we’re engaged with one or more large companies and they want a little bit more time we would give it to them.

Visitor, I'm not sure how you work out that we've a terrible deal with the refiner or that the 40% palladium figure isn't correct. Maybe it's not, but that's the figure that's been quoted.

The most direct comparison we have for the PGM production is SLP. Looking at the last quarterly figures for both companies (assuming 6E production), then JLP are receiving higher revenue per oz than SLP, and at a lower cost per oz than SLP.

I know SLP like to state basket prices, but that isn't the price they receive. You have to look at the revenue divided by oz's (in the manner you describe) to work out what they actually receive per oz, and it works out to be less than JLP are receiving. So it does support a position that the Pallidum content in Hernic's PGMs may be higher than usually found.

LC gave the 40% figure in the latest webcast. No idea if the Platcro tailings will have a similar quantity of palladium though.

Would be great if the platinum price recovers, but considering we have such a high palladium content (40%), will it really be that significant for us at the moment?

I'm looking forward to the day when Kabwe is producing and PGM's are no longer our biggest source of income so we don't have to worry about platinum being in a long term slump.

LTI, the way I look it at is that Winx has a date range of mid-end Feb. The farmout has a date range now of Q1, which could be anytime from now to end of March.

Purely based on a smaller more defined date range for Winx, that looks more likely to me to be coming first.

But I hope to be proved wrong (and very soon)!

ST, very true! And everyday hopefully brings us 1 day closer to positive news on at least 1 front, possibly 4.

Looking at the bright side this morning, that while our parliament is gridlocked and unable to form a consensus view of the most important decision most of our politicians will ever make, at least the government is still functioning and hasn't shut down! The same can't be said for certain other countries.

Meanwhile, about 1 month to go now until the earliest start for Winx.

It is of course much easier to see the spike after the event! Very difficult to trade unless you work on % gains, don't get greedy and ignore all the noise. Which is why a lot of people choose to set a target and hold until it gets there, sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't.