Member Info for moneyhawk

Well it looks like someone wasted 1.1p + trading fee yesterday in trying to guess that news would drop overnight/this morning, lol.

Looks more like a sign that someone has bought one share, lol.

Just supposing though that farm out news is on the way, how far through the cut and paste job do you think RMP will get before realising its nothing to do with them?

BB, if you pop down to the harbour in Capetown you might see him on his boat. He'll be easy to spot, it'll be the boat with a constant stream of mining and investment professionals jumping on board for a chat. lol

HRZ figures based on gross acreage of 270k acres. Its now over 500k. No idea if this means that the HRZ doesn't extend into the additional acres added, or if there's possible HRZ increases to come. Maybe revised estimates will be announced once Baker Hughes have finished or the HRZ farmout agreed?

Doesn't seem anything new, but then again I suppose it couldn't without new being released to the stock market first.

However, interesting use of words on the last slide

-PGM Processing
-Fine Chrome Recovery
-Zinc and Lead Refinery
-Vanadium Recovery
-New Copper and Cobalt Waste Recovery Approach

The word "refinery" for Zinc and Lead suggests an actual physical plant/installation, rather than a process that could be applied anywhere, and which the others listed do.

So have we got a refinery yet at Kabwe or not? Or do they mean "refining" as opposed to "refinery"?

Another thing I picked up on while looking at that is the HRZ estimates. They appeared to have been reduced last year to 0.8B-2B, but there isn't actually a change in the figures. Its the wording on the explanatory note which has changed from Gross to Net, and the apparent reduction in figures corresponds with our working interest. So no change in the amount of HRZ oil they think is recoverable, just a change in how its being presented.

An interesting point about whether increased shares have led to increased potential, or if its just dilution that has reduced the end value of our investment. Always going to be different opinions on that one.

I think most are of the view that our ultimate 'end value' is based on a sell off of the assets/takeover, with a price likely to be calculated from the numbers of barrels multiplied by the in ground value per barrel.

So if you're thinking along those lines, the key consideration is the number of barrels per share, not just the number of shares.

Looking back to early 2015, there were about 1.14B shares with 431M barrels net to 88e = approx. 0.38 barrels per share

Jan 2019 (using min case oil estimates) there are approx. 6.33B shares with 3.25B barrels net to 88e = approx. 0.51 barrels per share.

So roughly a 34% increase in net oil per share despite the increased number of shares.

Therefore it appears to me that potential value has been added over the past few years.

Well somethings got to happen soon, a lot will be going on the background, but its a bit frustrating not knowing if everything is going to plan, or if we should start preparing for delays. JLPs website still references Kabwe to begin Production in Q2 2019, seems unlikely that can happen now unless they have made progress that is yet to be announced.

In case you missed the chat from the weekend on share ownership, very few shares held by IIs

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/stockdetails/ownership/fi-151.1.88E.LON?ownershipType=institutional

So it is a good question on where those placing shares went. Not to IIs from the looks of it. Will the people who did take them have done so for a 10% gain, or have they invested in the longer term picture with the news expected to be coming over the next few months?

Well I think that settles it, IIs do own shares in 88e, to the tune of 8,862,709 shares in total between them.

I dare say that there'll be some PIs who individually hold more than that total!

MCap and potential yield from dividends are more important factors for IIs, consolidation to reduce the number of shares wouldn't make much different imo. Take BP for example, about 20B shares in issue

I don't really buy into this idea of a problem from an overhand of placing shares, and rises being sold into by the 'big boys'.

The simple fact of the matter is that there will always be people selling as well as buying, and its most likely that a large majority of the shares in issue are held by PIs in a small company like this. Sure when we get a placing, those will probably be taken up by large investors or financial institutions that specialise in taking part in fund raising. But whose to say that they will definitely be selling for a small short term gain and they're not investing with a longer term view? We don't know, some may be, some might not be.

If you look at the top 20 shareholders, its all nominee accounts where most of the shares from people on this BB are probably held. That is apart from DW, who is the only individual named in the Top 20 shareholders.

I've no doubt that when we see decent rises in a day that there will be plenty of PIs selling because they have predetermined targets that have been hit, or maybe just because they think its spike and they can trade to buy back in at a lower price. All depends on individuals goals and strategy. Some will hold and not sell until very large gains, some will sell at pretty modest gains.

Don't see the problem with DW getting paid! I'd like to think that the person negotiating major deals for us is sufficiently incentivised to put in a full days work every day, and he's not going to be looking elsewhere for work.

Well I'm not in profit at the moment either, so can understand some of the frustration expressed here. Saw it back in 2015, but decided not to invest. At the time Oil was low and it just looked to high risk for me. First bought a pretty small amount in 2016 at a much higher price, but then substantially added late 2017, and again in late 2018 with the RI plus some more when the SP dropped. So overall I'm down, but not a huge amount on my average.

Added more this winter (inc the RI shares) primarily because of the conventional upgrades last year, and that contrary to some views, I actually think good progress has been made with the HRZ at Icewine2. A good flowtest result would have been much better, as that's the easily understandable part to those of us outside the oil industry, but it was always going to require a lot of luck to get it right first time (and why I stayed clear back in 2015!).

Then what? - HRZ farmout and Yukon

But hopefully we've got a good chance with winx. Multiple stacked objectives from 3 different formations. Maybe 1, even 2, won't produce results. But all 3, which have already produced successful results, I'm hoping is unlikely.

As for a farmout, Great Bear have showed its always possible to get a deal no matter how bad your position is. Obviously hoping for a better deal than they got!

I don't believe that DW will have much of a say for when news of the farmout is released, when the deal is all signed off it will be announced as soon as practically possible for both/all parties involved, not much more to it timing wise.

I don't image for one moment that the farmee will commit to spending possibly 100's $m, and then say "ok dave, we'll keep it quiet for the time being so you can release the news when you flowtest an unrelated project, just let us know when we can tell our shareholders what we've done".

The farmee will more than likely want to get started with planning, not sit around waiting for a someone else's exploratory well that may, or may not, be successful.

Yes very true brom, whether you're up or down all depends on your entry price. My response was in relation to the comment about people already being 20% down this morning though.

Your reference about DWs incentives is a good reminder about what 88e wants to achieve. Not a one day spike in the SP, but a sustained higher level for a long period.

How have you worked that one out guzzler? Cluff SP currently up about 60-65% on the back of a deal which doesn't look that fantastic. Can only be down if you're one of the few who piled in when it was showing 80%+ rise an hour ago.

I guess the most significant part of the cluff farmout isn't really the terms, but that they've a major on board with the technical and financial ability to see it through. I see that as greatly increasing the chances of the field being developed.

The same would apply to Icewine with a major coming on board. Although I'd still like to think we can get better terms, cash up front to cover costs to date would be very good, but maybe not as important as a free carry going forward for exploration wells, neither of which cluff have got.

Interesting to see a real life example and how it unfolds. Looks for early indications its going to be a very good day for Cluff holders.

Personally I don't think their farmout agreement looks that great. They're giving away 70% of one licence just to get shell to pay for 3D and processing of data, and a 50% option for £600k on another with shell to pay 75% of an exploratory well.

I for one am hoping to see a better deal for Icewine to reflect the scale of the resource and that we're further ahead than cluff in terms of exploration.