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Brom, looks like this an interesting presentation. Haven't had a chance to watch it fully, plan to go back to it when I've a bit more time.

A few minutes in he talks about an average success rate of 25% on exploration, so 3 out of 4 attempts don't work. Rather puts Icewine2 into context, for the Oil/gas industry the fact that we weren't successful with the flowtest isn't really anything out of the ordinary.

A pity they didn't take the opportunity to rebrand the acreage size as ginormous or humongous, would have made the start of each RNS a bit more entertaining :)

Yes the site has been down, they've just tweeted:

"While we won't say the website is fully 100% fixed, it looks like they've found and resolved the issue that was causing the website issues."

https://twitter.com/LondonSouthEast/status/1093519554318344192

Only daylight 24/7 at the height of summer, in the winter its the other way around.

I think its very unlikely that the same trade would be appearing twice days or a week apart. Have you looked at the trade prices, are they the same? And was it for a very unusual number of shares?

The trades are marked as 'buy' or 'sell' on here according to the trade price and what the mid price of the bid and ask is at the time. If the trade is higher than mid price, it gets marked as a buy, of lower than the mid price it gets marked as a sell. Its not a definitive way to identify if any trades or 'buys' or 'sells'

If volume had been better than I think BMR would have been completely out last month, so it would be irrelevant now. As it stands volume hasn't been nearly enough, and more than likely they still hold a lot of shares, and will continue to be a factor while they sell the remainder.

The only positive in this is that the SP is staying fairly steady even with a lot of shares being sold into a market with little volume.

Good find, and interesting stat on the amount of platinum that would be needed for just 10% of china's cars being hydrogen fuel cells.

BD, its not really possible to calculate the COS for getting at least one of the 4 targets as they're at very different stages, and we don't even know what the target will be for Yukon (e.g. farmout or drill ourselves).

But assume for the sake of argument that the COS at all 4 is 30% for whatever the respective target outcomes are, the probability of at least one happening is about 76%.

However, we're talking about farm outs as being an outcome (or at least the immediate outcome) for 2 of the 4, and there's not really a way of evaluating the COS with those. It could be viewed as almost certain we'll be able to get a farmout deal, in which case there is a 100% probability of getting at least one of the four targets.

The more critical aspect is what kind of farm out deals we'll be able to get, and it all comes down to how much has to be given away and what the gain is for us.

Yes, very low volume. It rather seems like that vast majority who are interested have already taken their position (either in or out).

Can change very quickly though. A good farmout deal, and overnight we'll become a less risky investment for all those that are waiting in the wings to see what happens.

Been discussed here a few times, but always worth a reminder as its something I wasn't aware of until reading about it here. The chance of success is calculated as the probability of 4 geologic aspects which all have their own independent chance of success.

As a basic example, if each one of the 4 aspects had a 50% chance of success you get the overall chance of success from 50% x 50% x50% x 50% = 6.25%

To get to 25% to 30%, each one needs to an individual chance of success of around 70% to 75% if they were all the same.

Also worth noting that no one uses 100% in these calculations, absolute certainty is normally expressed as 90-95%

So a geological chance of success of 25% to 30% is actually quite a high chance, as it indicates the average chance of success of each aspect is around 70-75%.

A good article on it here, but also many others around:
https://wiki.aapg.org/Risk:_expected_value_and_chance_of_success#Probability_of_geological_success

The estimates went up by over 1B as a result of that 25% coverage on the western side. Now of course we don't know could be left to find under the central and eastern parts, but if its anything comparable then we could be looking at a lot more to come, and surely something all the people in the data room are also mulling over.

Completely agree. Taking a bit of time for a good deal with the right partner is much better than rushing a bad deal just for the sake of stubbornly sticking to our own self imposed timeframe.

Hopefully it will Sumo. Just looking at some basic figures there does seem a good chance it starting happen this year.

Last year Operating expenses were approx. £5.4m

Profit from Hernic alone should exceed £8m this year (year ending June), which should easily cover the overall company expenses.

3 further income streams starting in this second half from DCM, Platcro PGMs and Platcro Chrome.

Obviously at this stage a lot of the cash being generated is going to be used for developing projects/acquisitions, but even still, it looks like we've a good chance of ending the year in profit.

Then we have kabwe to come, although it looks very unlikely now that we'll be seeing any earnings from it coming before the end of year (June).

Well I take it from the new pictures that the fine chrome circuit is producing results. Why else put up pictures of it appearing to be in operation?

But it would be nice to have some news on what's happening, not try and interpret what a picture may or may mot show!

Oh well, hopefully the numbers are going to make up for it and tell the real story in the next few quarterly updates.

We're only 1/3 into the time extension, bit too early to start talking about another extension isn't it?!

But I guess anything's possible until the deals done. HRZ farmout we're told is targeted for H1, so who knows, maybe it'll be a combined farmout. Which will mean either the HRZ is farmed out sooner than expected, or the conventional is delayed a little more.

Doing a little better than RMP today though. But fair to say news of the rig moving 1mph isn't the news everyone is waiting for.

If only it could move so fast downwards we'd be able to get to the target depth in about an hour instead of a few weeks!

Doing a little better than RMP today though. But fair to say news of the rig moving 1mph isn't the news everyone is waiting for.

If only it could move so fast downwards we'd be able to get to the target depth in about an hour instead of a few weeks!

We should run a sweepstake on whose rig is going to find oil first :)

I rather suspect that on its own a positive result at Winx won't move us much. The key driver in my opinion will be the farmout(s), especially if its with a major. A deal that involves cash plus a free carry with a proven oil producer will not only improve the balance sheet, but also reduce our potential expenditure, and make the huge icewine resource a much more realistic prospect to generate significant returns, and therefore make us a much more attractive investment.

That in turn will enable a greater value for winx, as with more cash and less liabilities, it becomes more feasible that we can progress it after this drill.

As it stands at the moment, it doesn't look like we'll be able to do much after this year without getting more cash from somewhere, and I think that's what's really holding us back. Hence I believe the farm out is the most important news coming up, and it'd be really good if it comes before the Winx flow test :)

BP quarterly results out today, another major making some healthy profits. Of particular interest to us is Page 31 and the average oil marker prices for BP. Shows that Alaska North Slope Oil has been on a slight premium to Brent, and a pretty healthy premium to WTI.

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/0431P_1-2019-2-4.pdf

Another reason why our assets will be of interest to many players.