Member Info for moneyhawk

It does seem to be our copper we are processing at the moment, from Glencores tailings that came with sable. Haven’t seen any info on the quantity of copper tailings, so assuming not much. After they’re done we’re going to need to process 3rd party ore.

TC, the payment terms are listed in the RNS. 38.8m GLR shares based on a SP of 0.42p, and £10k in cash. Explains the recent pump, CB needed to increase the SP to sweeten the deal. Looks like you got out at a good time imo.

Some more news just out, GLR is buying some sort of copper exploration project. In Botswana.

Thought they had enough to be getting on with.

TC, I would assume that when they talk about Covid problems for construction at Kabwe, they mean problems getting parts/equpiment shipped from other Countries. But like totaltrader, I'm not convinced that's the whole story. We could have (and should have) had the zinc/lead circuits built before now.

Could be to do with commodity prices, and prioritising what we can make the most profit from at the moment. Could be something else.

Rather reminds me of DCM. Still waiting for PGMs there, and for now its just producing chrome which wasn't in the original plan.

Will get there eventually, but LC does have a habit of adjusting plans to work around whatever issues come up.

Largely as many thought, confirmation that the original plan for Lead Zinc and V at Kabwe is on hold. But excellent news that Cobalt is now added as well as Copper at Kabwe. No real concerns there.

Also confirmation that we're transferring ownership of the Kabwe licence to remove any lingering concerns about BMR.

A bit of a strange mention of GLR though. No direct mention of Star Zinc, but instead we are told JLP is enforcing its rights to process material under the mining rights GLR acquired from BMR. With Kabwe on hold (for Zinc) and now looking more like a longer term copper/cobalt only plant than previously thought, I can't see a realistic prospect of GLR moving forward with Star Zinc in the near future, as they've nowhere to process the material.

As always, some good news mixed in with some more questions.

I'm cautious of expecting good news on the HRZ core samples from Charlie1. The primary driver for choosing the location were the conventional targets, which is what PMO paid for. We don't really know if it was also an ideal location for the HRZ, it was just a bonus part of the drill to gather more HRZ data by drilling a little further than necessary for the conventional.

But we're now in the 2-3 week window for first results from the core samples, so could be any day now to find out.

After reading this article, the phase "this time next year..." seems appropriate here ;)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Major-Bull-Run-Is-Forming-In-Oil-Markets.html

"The combination of production destruction in non-OPEC oil and the natural oil field production decline rate is a toxic one. If the market does not recognize this and continues to underinvest, oil prices will shoot up much faster than most analysts expect. 2021 could be a very bullish year for oil."

FWIW I also believe/suspect PMOs decision had little to do with the results from Charlie 1. Yes the results were not good, but having considered the time line involved it seems more likely PMOs decision was due to a pressing need to cut costs and future liabilities, especially on non producing assets. If Shell see the need to cut their dividend for the first time in 80 years, it would be reasonable to assume PMO are panicking a little more than they are letting on.

PMO spent a year analysing the data, funding approval at board level etc, negotiating terms, agreeing future plans etc etc.. Then they pull out within days (maybe even hours) of seeing the initial results at one well on a very large acreage position.

No oil company is going to expect 100% success on every target they drill, and will know that results at one location do not guarantee the same results at a different location on the same target. That's why the plan was always to drill further wells.

So the speed of their decision suggests its more of a convenient excuse to knock off some capex from their plans and please investors/creditors. PMO are not in the same position now as they were when they first entered the farmout agreement. Had they not pulled out, they may not have been able to fund the next stages.

Not sure if GLRs movement last Friday was anything to do with any progress being made. No news this morning, so it does look like the movement was only because of it being tipped and a small rush of new investors coming in. Need to be wary with that, its not unusual for CB to take advantage of SP increases to raise funds.

But, it is still going up, who's to say it won't continue. We know that there will be news relevant to both GLR and JLP coming up, we just don't know when that will be. Confirmation that GLR have made the licence application for Star Zinc would be a good start.

Indeed, a big rise out of nowhere, but good luck to the holders there. Maybe CB has made progress with submitting the licence application? Could signify Kabwe is getting ready to run material? (aside from the copper we're already producing)

Yes there isn't that much to say about JLP at the moment, and also apologize for the off topic conversations. But as a producing company, I do feel the global markets and economy do have a direct impact on us. PGM prices are the most important to us at present, and those prices largely follow demand created by manufacturing.

Maybe worth keeping an eye on electric vehicles during this. I do wonder if a long period of cheap oil and falling incomes is going to put a break on some of the growth in sales, and with it a scaling back on R&D from the major manufacturers. In turn leading to a bigger than expected demand for catalytic converters and PGMs during the next few years.

Does look like this is the start of the market correction following a misguided rally. When companies like Shell cut their dividend for the first time since WW2, its something to take notice of. They would not be cutting the dividend if they believed it was a short term drop in oil prices and demand. Further afield, Amazon was largely expected to benefit from the pandemic with a surge in online ordering. Their results yesterday show they have to some extent, but they also expect their entire profits for next quarter to be wiped out to cover extra Covid related costs ($4B), so not even online retails are going to be immune to problems. And then most companies have withdrawn forward guidance, basically saying they don't know how they're going to be affected.

All in all, its not pointing to a quick recovery. Have to hope PGM prices hold up in this, we do have quite a wide margin to play with, and so far not looking to be a major problem.

I would assume that the forward strategy for the next 1-2 years is now going to focus on the Nanushuk with the Merlin lead. No other reason for the acquisition at this time and taking on those extra leases. The secondary focus will be Yukon, depending on Erics other drill with Jade Energy and if we can get a deal with someone.

Leaves a big question for the future of Icewine though. Do we relinish some or all of those leases to save costs? A lot could depend on the analysis work underway. No point holding on to all them if what we have around Charlie 1 isn't commercial. And then for the HRZ they must have a pretty good ideal of what results are needed at Charlie to confirm the current HRZ theory.

8.50 - Annual lease costs are given as $3/acre in XCDs Nov 19 presentation.

XCDs quarterly report of 9th April states all leases cost are paid through to March 2021

18.56 - many thanks brom, that makes sense.

Still not sure what to make of this really. More acreage wasn't exactly at the top of my list for things I'd like to see here. But we're in a bit of a tight spot and something had to be done.

Had a look through some of the XCD info, and the Merlin prospect at least is a lot shallower than we've been chasing, and the references to low cost drilling could be promising. Maybe just what we need. It looks a long way from infrastructure though.

Not sure about the restrictions on acreage though, isn't there a 500k limit for exploration arceage? We're going to be above that now.

TBTT, yes does look like a bull rally in a bear market. And being fueled by Trumps $2 trillion stimulus which is propping up the US markets, and other markets are just following suit.

Won't last forever, even with the huge sums being pumped into economies by Governments across the world. Caution is definitely required

"There's no chance the markets will crash again!"

Interesting view, but think you're looking at the situation will your eyes shut tbh. Deflation is becoming a bigger prospect each day now, which is not going to be good news for anyone.

I'm not advocating people sell their shares here, I think this is still a good option. But I wouldn't suggest anyone sitting on their cash is doing the wrong thing either.

Also agree, seems completely irrational. Millions out of work, businesses mostly reporting large drops in revenue/earnings, other businesses failing, oil price through the floor etc etc, and no definite end in sight. But Market response - up, and as though there’s no problem.

I’m expecting to see the USA markets rise some more, before crashing dramatically.

P14 - it does look like the global markets are in denial of what’s really happening. USA reported record unemployment at 26m people, and the markets go up. Worse is to come when companies start reporting figures for the current quarter. Reality may hit then that there now far fewer people who have cash to spend and most businesses have had to take on large debt to try and keep going.