Member Info for moneyhawk

A lot has changed in 15 years. CBs strategy of hoping for one killer deal on Tjate has been replaced with LC's strategy of a robust business with steady and long term earnings growth across multiple projects and metals.

gotreal, yes tesla was perhaps not the best example to use, but the general point is that IIs and large investors do not solely invest in dividend stocks, and will invest in growth stocks.

10.32 - if we had Tesla's PE ratio we'd be in line for FTSE100 status, never mind midcap, lol. Not that I'm suggesting we're at all comparable to Tesla or that we should be a FTSE100 company, but it is an example (perhaps extreme example) of both large and small investors looking at potential future growth rather than traditional factors of PE ratios and dividends.

Permitting can be done prior to any farmout, as has happened previously, with amendments made later on if necessary. Getting a rig would not appear to be an issue at the moment, exploration activities have been scaled back. Getting the right rig though, and getting it in the right place at the right time is another matter. The best I can go on is that we appear to have a plan for drilling this winter, and so I think an assumption can be made that the logistics and feasibility for this time scale have been considered. Its not as though Erik is a novice when it comes to organizing drills and getting the right equipment in place.

What I like the most about this current phase of expansion is that all the new deals we've had recently feed into our existing projects/plants to make best use of our previous capital outlay, and minimise new capex required to expand. Having those solid foundations in place is now showing to be a huge benefit. Even at our weakest link at DCM we're seeing the plant being moved to save on costs upgrading another site.

Sumo 9.29 - I'm not sure this deal adds that much in terms of extra PGMs per year. Of more significance is that it will extend the life of the Inyoni project, and remove one of the concerns for what happens when we've exhausting the tailings supply. It does say there may be an expansion to reach 3,500oz PGM per month, which is an increase from the approx 2,000 - 2,500 oz per month currently. If that new target is hit, then its 42,000oz per year, plus the 30,000oz (approx) from Windsor. So maybe we'll be looking at around 70,000 oz PGMs per year.

Feels like LC would be well within his rights to use a quote from the A-team in his next interview - "I love it when a plan comes together", lol

Fair to say they are not in the best of positions at the moment, seems a very long way from the £1b+ company being talked up not so long ago.

re liabilities, there is potential here for some nasty surprises, the history doesn't fill me with confidence that all is above board at BMR:
1. The hidden licence issue that started all the problems for us with the initial Kabwe deal
2. The nonsense deal with 'blue square', whoever they were
3. Their NOMAD resigning, and no replacement could be found

And that's just from our time as JV partner/shareholder, there are a lot more question marks further back in their history. Could be a whole can of worms that CB wouldn't want to absorb into one of his other companies.

Yes this news (the presentation) was in an RNS. He can't keep putting out the same RNS each week, that'd be ramping, lol. And neither can DW give new information out in a reply to anyone that isn't already public knowledge.

The next steps will be interesting. I wasn't that enthused by the XCD takeover, but the new options it provides us look positive.

Jammer, I've no idea what this may really mean. But I agree that it may mean our BMR shares may be used in someway as payment for the royalty. I can't really see anything else to negotiate on, BMR have very little left. If it was the case of us just exiting BMR, we just could sell on our share holding, not really much there to use our holding for negotiation. Not sure GLR would have to take over BMR for this to happen though, would there be any benefit to them in taking on the potential liabilities if GLR have already got what they want?

Our BMR shareholding is worth next to nothing at the moment, but then the royalty is currently worth nothing to BMR. Even after we start with the Kabwe tailings, it will ramp up slowly and there will be substantial costs plus interest to be paid off first before any royalty gets paid, we're talking many years before any royalty gets paid imo. At some point in the future, the royalty will be worth something to BMR, but maybe not as much as some have previously suggested. The WHI note did not value Kabwe very highly. Copper at Sable is of much more relevance to us now.

Hopefully our next news will be better than the news today at our former FO partner.

Maybe I'm not reading it correctly, but it seems to be saying they're going to be doing placings to raise $530m. Their Mcap is only £250m (approx $330m). One placing of $300m is to reduce debt, the other for $230m is to fund their northsea acquisition.

Really doesn't look to me that they had the money to have proceeded any further with Icewine. Regardless of the statements they made about the Charlie 1 results, surely this must have been a factor for them in their decision to withdraw from the project and hand the WI back to us.

Yes completely agree it'd be good to have more transparency on the capex coming up and how it'll be funded. Although I don't feel there's any intention to deceive here, playing his cards close to his chest is just how LC seems to operate, most probably so he can keep all his options open without committing to one particular course.

And directors buying shares doesn't always mean private shareholders are more protected from dilution and/or falling SPs. I can think of plenty of examples where the opposite has happened. At the end of the day, the directors role is to ensure the company is viable and can fund all its commitments, not to protect their own investment. An example very close to home, where someone on our board holds nearly 10% of that company, saw its SP sink from 10p to less than 0.5p within 3 years. (mentioning no names otherwise we'll have a load of posts about placings or some other sort of doom and gloom, but I'm sure most will know what I'm referring to)

Its hardly a secret that LC/CB would be open to offers for Tjate, and it would not be surprising if they are currently trying to drum up interest in it. Its perfect territory for CB, a large resource that he can say has a $1b+ valuation and for something that is just starting to come back to investors attention with the rise across the board for precious metals.

However, Tjate is most likely only viable at the moment with Palladium prices riding high, and even then its uncertain if Tjate would be viable. An updated NPV for Tjate was actually buried in the 2018 accounts, which gave an NPV of 1.4B ZAR. Currently that's about £60m. Not much profit for a 20 year + mine that will cost 100's millions (or more) to develop. Sable is worth more to us than Tjate, and for a lot less cost. (page 64-65 of the 2018 annual report if anyone's interested)

There also has to be doubt as to whether Palladium can sustain the high price in the long term. So as Platinum is the main PGM at Tjate, its still Platinum prices that are key. Previous NPV assessments for the $1B NPV were based on a Platinum price of $1,200oz I believe, and we're still some way off that, even for a temporary short term price spike. Until we get to the point where its looking like the long term price for platinum will stay comfortably above $1,200oz I very much doubt there'll be serious interest from anyone with deep enough pockets. Maybe we'll be able to flog it to a Borelli led company (or similar AIM venture) who can use it as a gravy train for a few years. But that's about it in my opinion, and until the PGM market improves significantly

So thanks for the compliment Highlygeared, but comments that suggest the information is out there to prove a deal is imminent, and its not worthwhile to give lesser mortals even a clue as where that source of information is, needs to be treated with a pinch of salt. Maybe it is true, I don't know, but these kind of posts are often made by people that want others to the leg work for them in a wild goose chase to find some 'evidence' to support a theory. If there is any information out there to suggest the contrary, I'd suggest sharing it so the many knowledgeable posters on here can give an opinion.

Lol, I wondered how long it'd take before someone comes up with that one during this rise. Fear of dilution another usual one. Although I wasn't expecting the comments about sideways and flat share growth while its very clearly heading up, bit a of a strange one there.

Have we a couple of people here who didn't buy and now regretting a missed opportunity?

I don't recall LC ever giving a time frame for when dividends would start to be paid. A lot has happened in the past 3 years. Back then we only had DCM and Hernic, we didn't have Windsor, Kabwe/Sable and the copper projects. In addition, the scope of the DCM and Hernic projects has changed in those 3 years, Hernic in particular, which required cash to be spent to secure a more profitable project overall.

Had LC used earnings from Hernic to pay out dividends instead of expansion, those dividends would have been tiny and not very long lived, with no prospect of future increases.

Instead we've now got a much bigger company with a lot more prospect of creating sustained earnings growth for a long period of time. Seems like the better approach to me.

I never understand why people keep complaining about a lack of dividends on a junior AIM company. Very few on AIM do pay dividends, there's better placing to put your money if earning dividends is your investment objective.

If we get to the Midcap status aimed for, then dividends will most likely be necessary to maintain that status. But at that point, the SP will be a lot higher than it is today.

Goods new, that's another question answered - where will the copper be coming from for the ramp up at Sable. But possibly the most significant news in this is that it'll cost us $15m over 12 months, and the indication is that we'll be using cash plus borrowing against future earnings. It is very possible for this to happen now. Although we have heard that before, and not always been completely the case. Hopefully LC is keeping CB locked in a box for a while until his excitement subsides, lol

Bamps and aw - The 35% profit margin isn't so straight forward. The margin that's been quoted is for processing our own tailings and not buying material to process, which will most likely involve turning the tailings into copper concentrate and then refining. We don't have a breakdown for the costs of each part, but I previously worked out our total cost per tonne refined to be about $3,700. Its difficult to estimate what our margin will be on material we're buying to refine, but I'd hazard a guess it'll be less than 35% as I'd expect refining to be the most costly part of the process. However, it does also give us an extra source of earnings from selling the concentrate to other parties as well with any excess produced at Sable doesn't need.

I'd suggest you look at the recent broker note from WHI as a starting point. Jammers post the other day also gives a neat summary of the main news expected soon.

https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FN-JLP-080720.pdf

WHI have given a valuation of 11.2p with a fairly decent appraisal of all our current projects. When or if that valuation will be achieved is subject to many things, but it does imply there is plenty of upside. Its also quite likely additional projects will be added to give further scope for increasing earnings.

In terms of financials, there's cash in the bank, and both revenue and earnings are increasing all the time as projects ramp up, so its look pretty healthy.

Most likely those shares are held in one or more nominee accounts. All the holders listed are nominee accounts, there could be any number of individual holders included in those accounts so the list isn't really of much use.

But they'd need to give a notification if they'd sold (or bought) any and passed a threshold for reporting. Since we haven't had one, have to assume they still hold at least 11% (after accounting for the additional shares issued since they last reported their holding).

8.34 - Probably when news of the next copper deal is released, the last update said:

"We have targeted a second copper resource which if successfully concluded holds the potential to be brought into operation well in advance of our Project Elephant. This would secure a sustained copper ramp-up prior to Project Elephant being commissioned. We have set ourselves a target to achieve the production of 25 000 tonnes of copper per annum within the next 4 years"

This deal/resource doesn't have to be particularly big or long term, it just needs to be able to provide the material in the short term to ramp up copper production at Sable until we have our main copper supply up and running. But question marks how much funding this will need and where it will come from could be holding us back at the moment. If its a straight forward off take agreement, then no problems. If it'll be something we're buying that will also need capex spent, then that's a little different. We have ~£10m in the bank plus steady income, but LC won't want to run the coffers down to zero, so we'll probably still need to borrow or fund raise for anything that we're buying especially when we've got large costs coming up for project elephant during the next couple of years.