Member Info for moneyhawk

Yes, that's the $16.4m for Hernic (now Inyoni)

Yes the cash position will be important to know, but I don't think its all doom and gloom here and we should be OK. Obviously all previous earning forecasts for this year are now out of the window, as for pretty much every other company in the world.

But a few back of fag packet figures on what we have and what we have to:
Cash:
June 2019 cash position - £18.8m
November placing - £6.5m
Total - £25.3m

Outgoings for acquisitions:
Sable - $12m
Hernic PGMs - $5.1m
Hernic Chrome - $16.4m
Total - $33.5m - approx £26.5m depending on exchange rates

Difference between cash and acquisitions = approx £1.2m

Then we have earnings for June 2019 to now, with decent commodity prices for all of that period except the last few weeks.

Costs incurred for project development are the big unknown, but this can be scaled back. Short term that will knock our earnings growth back further, but longer term its still looking good here imo.

Big moves on most oil stocks now, take a look at the FTSE100. Not often you see supermajors with double digit % rises. Looks to be some hope in the market that oil prices won't be staying this low for long.

Do they have toilet paper though? Could be a big selling point if they do, surprised Tim Martin has missed a trick there.

Don’t think you’re the only one BB, Netflix have announced they’re reducing picture quality across Europe to cope with demand!

On another note, good to see a healthy rise today. Only another ~90% to go and we’re back to pre apocalypse prices.

I am glad that DW has now confirmed wire logging results won't be announced until after total depth reached and analysis is complete. Avoids a repeat of the WInx news flow, and puts a stop to all the nonsense with 'experts' saying we'll get an RNS of oils shows tomorrow because we must be at 'X' depth now.

Therefore, expect news of what all targets show and which ones we're flow testing to come together.

Was in BOO for a while, but sold last year. No real analysis involved for my decision making on that, I was over 50% up having bought sub £2 and wasn't convinced that the revenue and profit growth could be sustained to justify the MCAP. Looking better value now though, along with many others.

Oil majors a good shout, even in hard times they pay out dividends and very rarely reduce dividend payments. The banking sector also looks promising to me at the moment. They could take a short term hit from the mortgage holidays announced, but will end up benefiting from the government backed loans.

Very few PGM mines are going to be able to operate profitably at the prices now, so yes I think we're going to see some mine closures over the next few weeks if prices don't pick up.

I believe we'll still be able to produce from tailings profitably, but it is going to have a big impact on previously expected earnings for this half.

Hopefully the interim's due in the next week or two will address this and give us an indication for how low we can go on the basket price. Fingers crossed!

Good to see! Just a pity we've sunk so low, never thought we'd see these prices during this drill :(

But the global situation has rather dictated price movements downwards for everything

May partly explain PMOs steep recovery today, showing up over 60% on the day short selling is banned. Coincidence?

It is, looks like they are preparing for cost reductions on 2020 capex. Our drill already funded and underway so wouldn't be affected.

Surprised to see the statement about their northsea acquisition though. Its supposed to be funded by a $500m equity raise, and they're still talking about it like its going ahead.

Looks like there'll be plenty of bargains around when the panic's over and you decide to get back in. The % lost on even FTSE100 companies in the past few days is quite staggering.

I do agree that the long term future of cars is either batteries or alternative fuels. But in the meantime the basic facts to consider are that there's well over 1 billion cars on the road today, and about 70 million new cars produced each year with the majority of those still being made with ICE's. No maths degree required to work out the transition away from oil is going to take a long time.

And when the sales of electric cars does increase to significant levels, then there's the small matter of where the electricity to charge all those cars is going to come from. Only a small proportion of electricity generated each year comes from renewables at the moment.

Hopefully the panic will have subsided by end of April, when the flow testing program is due to finish.

6 weeks away, think we should know by then just how badly most of world will be affected by the virus and what the impact is.

RNS's are not a form of instant messaging, lol.

There will always be a time lag between events and news, not least because of reporting requirements for RNSs to be cleared by the NOMAD and then go through the system. Then there'll be time required for the ground team to report on progress, a decision to be made on whether or not to release it as news, DW or someone else to write it up, etc etc.

Not sure if you're ready the same article Milho, it says:

"Asia Research & Capital Management should have revealed its bet to the Financial Conduct Authority in February 2017 when its short position in the North Sea oil firm’s shares went above 0.5 per cent.

But ARCM, which invests in distressed assets, did not disclose the bet to the watchdog until Friday last week

......The FCA declined to comment on any potential penalty for ARCM for late disclosure."

Yes I'm sure arcm have been declaring their short positions for years, and it must just be an innocent mistake that they forgot to declare their PMO short back in 2017

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7767747/Premier-Oil-target-record-132m-short-bet-Hong-Kong-hedge-fund.html

It looks like a shorting attack may be going on over there (just my opinion of course!). But if it is, then it'll be PMOs biggest lender that's responsible, who have a large short position open. The current market volatility has created an ideal scenerio for them to do this. But will they want to see PMO fail and lose the money owed to them, or perhaps its just a pressure tactic to try and block the north sea acquisition they disagree with?

Maybe it could actually end up benefiting us, if their north sea deal falls through and we have success at Charlie 1, then PMO have an ideal contender to focus on as a replacement for the expansion they want. The main objection to the north sea acquisition is that its an ageing field with decommissioning costs looming, Icewine doesn't have the same issues.

Looks to me that we have been given a drill schedule, from the 24th feb RNS which has the link to the presentation (which also sets out the schedule below):

“Further to the announcement on 12 February 2020, the presentation confirms that rig mobilisation has commenced as well as outlining the expected drilling timetable and testing program for the upcoming Charlie-1 appraisal well, on the North Slope of Alaska, details of which are set out below.

Drilling and Logging

· Drilling to Total Depth (planned ~11,400'), Logging While Drilling and Wireline Logging estimated to take ~30 days

State of the Art Subsurface Evaluation Program

· Utilisation of the latest proven technology

· Program specifically designed to evaluate:

o Formations that may have laminations resulting in low resistivity pay

o Formations with low to moderate permeability

o Formations with considerable bound water

· Prior to advent of specialist tools, the above challenges often resulted in pay being left behind

Flow Testing

· Subsurface evaluation to be followed by up to two production tests

· Zones of interest and final test design to be determined by results of logging

· Each test estimated to take ~14 days



Reporting

· Total program estimated to take ~60 days, with reporting of results determined by materiality and continuous disclosure obligations”

Need to remember that the only reason why we are producing chrome is because it’s in the material we’re extracting PGMs from. Chrome removal is basically the first stage of our process to produce PGMs. So even if the chrome prices don’t make that part of the process profitable in its own right, it’s still generating revenue that goes towards covering the total cost of our pgm production.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear nothing more about adding fine chrome at Windsor and inyoni for a while, unless it’s a major cost advantage when extracting PGMs from the tailings. But since the trial is at DCM where we’re still only stockpiling PGM material that’s a bit hard to judge.