Quarterly Update and DCM project26 Jan 2018 18:19
Hello, first time post here, but I�ve been holding JLP and following the board for quite a while now so I thought its about time I shared some thoughts.
Firstly, I�m not overly concerned with the lack of a quarterly update so far. Previous updates have typically been 3 to 4 weeks after the end of the quarter and have included figures of revenue received for period. Due to Christmas being at the end of the quarter I think its reasonable to assume JLP will have a delay of at least 1-2 weeks in receiving some revenue so I wouldn�t expect quarterly results to be out for another week or 2 at least. (fingers crossed they�ll be sooner though).
Secondly, I have some thoughts others might be able to help with filling in the blanks and improving my assumptions. To state the obvious, the DCM platinum (or lack of) is getting very frustrating . However, I�ve relooked at all the info available and my thoughts on this are:
1. Hernic appears to be producing approx 0.03oz PGM per tonne of tailings on average each month (e.g. October was stated as 45500 tonnes of tailings and 1427oz of PGMs)
2. The processing capacity at DCM increased to 75000 tonnes per month during the BR process
3. DCM is producing around 15k-17k tonnes of chrome concentrate per quarter in Q2 and Q3 2017 (or approx. 5.5k tonnes per month)
What I can�t find is any recent mention of the throughput of tailings at DCM. But working an assumption it�s running somewhere in the region of 50K tonnes of tailings per month (i.e. 2/3 capacity), it means JLP are getting are getting 1 tonne of chrome concentrate for every 10 tonnes of tailings. This seems very high, and not being an expert in chrome recovery I�ve no idea if that�s a realistic figure.
But if JLP are processing 50k tailings per month and the PGM content is similar to Hernic (only an assumption), then that means JLP are potentially stockpiling material with about 1,500oz of PGMs a month. As the project has been running for over 20 months now, that could equate to around 30,000oz of PGMs.
From the Hernic figures so far JLP are receiving about $760 per oz of PGM concentrate with a cost price down to about $400 oz, giving $360 per oz profit. Applying that to possible DCM PGMs, that gives a stockpile worth a possible $10.8M profit (�7.7M)
However, many unknowns in this. It may be possible the recovery rates of PGM are not as good as at Hernic or the costs are much higher, hence the board are in no particular hurry because there isn�t much profit there. But its also fair to say that the Hernic recovery rates and profit margins are not that impressive yet and will hopefully improve. DCM may be better, or may benefit greatly from experience gained at Hernic, so there could be a lot more PGM�s and/or profit than I�ve guessed at.
Anyway, just my thoughts on the DCM project, grateful for any other insights/opinions to improve the assumpt