Member Info for moneyhawk

Why is LSE constantly putting the JLP news onto the BMR feed? Getting annoying. But overall a piece of good news, and well ahead of schedule for a change, having previously been told a decision due by 28th Feb. Resource estimates look very good, as do BMR estimates on recovery of resources. Although encouraged, I was hoping JLP would have commented on the BMR estimates, perhaps that will come further down the line as the project progresses. Also looks good that JLP want to fast track this, and I take the decision being made early as a sign that they are serious about achieving this.

Hi Rosewall, "I thought Ashworth went back to Braemore days, is this not just a tidying up of the old loan?" My time here doesn't go back to the Braemore days, so not greatly familiar with what happened back then apart from a few bits of insight posted here from time to time and other info I've occasionally found.

Yes big percentage rise, but actually only a small price rise to recover back to recent levels. Perhaps some anticipation of a trading update coming soon following the end of year on 31st Jan? I've all but written this one off, and after the past couple of years getting back my original investment would be a result here. But who knows, a trading update may give some great news that money is actually coming in from payments processing at long last.

Yes does look like the holding is part of the recent placing. A good sign as no doubt they will have carried out due diligence for their investment before committing at 3.6p, and they must have also felt that 6p+ may be a beneficial price for them to acquire more in future. Since they've acquired through a placing I would have thought that they would have also factored in the potential for future placings as well.

I'm hoping sentiment with change with the next numbers too. But doubtful on any more monthly updates, so probably will be towards end of April for the Jan/Feb/Mar quarter. Hopefully will show what we can expect going forwards from DCM chrome and Hernic producing at or near capacity for a solid 3 months, bar any further shutdowns, upgrades etc. Many have made their own estimates (including me), but no substitute for the real thing! No expecting a great deal from the Webcast. All they can really say is what's already been said in RNS's, with a bit of explanation and clarification. Some confirmation that they are making progress with all current projects while actively seeking/discussing further projects would be reassuring. I don't think we'll hear much on Tjate, will be pleasantly surprised if we do. We all know what huge potential is there, but are we in too weak a position to capitalise on it at the moment? Getting profitable revenue streams first will put us in a stronger position for negotiating on tjate in my view.

As much as I'd like such a vague rumour to be true, I can't help but say this is just wishful thinking. Why would someone even consider paying a couple times our market cap for one asset?

My personal view is that II's affecting the price is sometimes overestimated. I ask myself why would an II be buying and selling low value amounts in a small cap with typically low volumes of daily trades just to make at the most a few grand here and there? Richer pickings elsewhere for the same amount of work. At the moment, and until the MCAP increases along with the volume of trades, I believe PI's buying and selling are most likely having the biggest effect on the share price. I've quite often seen buys I can positively identify as mine reported as sells, purely because the price I've managed to get falls below the criteria the system uses for identifying buys vs sells. So I'm not sure IIs have an advantage in using the system to double report as sells. That said, I do hope that IIs are building up positions for holding, but we'll only know if they pass the threshold for reporting their holdings.

Not sure buying BMR in full would be a good move. I guess a big factor would be what debts/liabilities BMR has, and then how much free cash we’ve got and whether our debt finance agreement would cover it. I suspect not at the moment, so no doubt a placing would be on the cards. A better option for JLP might be to only buy BMRs subsidiary that holds the Kabwe mine and tailings project. Would give much needed cash to BMR to progress their other projects and be lower risk to JLP. Just speculation of course!

Sounds familiar! I’ve around 1/2 dozen small cap miners. All with potential ‘world class assets’ that will ‘one day’ transform the company. All they seem to have done for the past few years is spend time and money drilling holes to prove assets and apply for licences for mining no one will fund for the foreseeable future. JLP is the only one I hold that’s responded to the current market and taken positive action to develop a realistic strategy that doesn’t need hundreds of millions, and one that looks like it’s now finally starting to pay off.

I don't think that'd help in the long term. May have a positive effect for January figures as they would hopefully be better than what we think happened in December, so it'd look great - lots of progress being made month on month. But what if Feb is then the same (or worse), could send the SP falling. In this business there'll always be stoppages affecting output at some point - maintenance, upgrades, equipment failure etc. There'll always be variations in the grade of material affecting output. What will be more beneficial is: 1. More details of Kabwe - hopefully due diligence outcome, how it'll be financed, time scales and NPV of resources there etc. 2. Outcome of Hernic business rescue and future impact on our project 3. Next set of quarterly results showing continued progress in ramping up production. 4. Work starting on DCM platinum

He is most likely referring to the DCM platinum project, which they told us yesterday that the aim is for work to be started Q2 this year, and will be funded through cash and existing debt finance that we have access to. So no placings for this expected. Any new info would have to come in an RNS, so doubtful he's talking about anything not said in the quarterly results yesterday.

itsaduster - see no harm in disagreeing. No doubt we've all got slightly different views, expections and perspectives. But that's the whole point a forum isn't? No doubt the comms from JLP could be better, but on the whole I think we're achieving what's been set out by the board. I'd hoped the PGMs at DCM would be higher than 10k ozs per year with the amounts of tailings being processed. But it's still a good amount, and now we know roughly what to expect. Another factor that may impacting on the share price is that what we're seeing is a transition from a small cap with lots of talk and promised future riches, to an actual producer which now has to deliver firm numbers and long term strategy to justify its market cap.

MM - Some good analysis of the sp movements. Perhaps a coincidence, perhaps not, we'll probably never know for sure. I'm not trying to trade this up and down through the daily movements, so not really affected greatly. I've come to the view on this one that I've got little chance of making a decent return by trying to sell and buy back at a lower point. The problem I have is there just isn't enough transparency in the operation to know with any degree of certainity what is happening on a daily/weekly/monthly basis. And as we know it just takes one bit of surprise news to send prices north or south very fast on AIM. I've got some sp targets in mind that have turned into long term targets, just the strategy I'm most comfortable with (in part due to the sp movements you've highlighted). The BMR/Kabwe deal looks like it has huge potential and could be the game changer we've been waiting for if it goes ahead. But a word of caution, it's taken 3 years to get hernic designed, built and showing decent production levels (and still isn't at full capacity). Hopefully Kabwe will be quicker (less complicated as we're in defacto control of the project), but I'm working on the basis it'll still be at least 2 years if all goes well with no unforeseen problems.

Hex, sorry to disagree and someone may well have received and posted that email. Many times I've found the info confusing on what the targets are for separate projects, often reading like the combined target is only for one project. However, JLPs website (and several releases) do say "The Hernic plant construction and commissioning was completed in H1 2017 on schedule and within budget. Commercial production of chromite and platinum concentrate commenced March 2017, which with the current processing of DCM Tailings will together process 85,000 tonnes tailings per month to produce an estimated 3,000 oz of PGE+ minor Au per month (36,000oz annually)" - note the word 'together'. Hence I agree with you that we are below target so far in the early stages of this, but not nearly as far off as 50% at hernic.

"we are only extracting ~50% of the expected yield" - That's the problem with some of the updates and forecast figures from JLP, some have been project specific and some both projects combined, care needs to be taken in reading them. The 3000 per month figure was for a combined output of hernic and DCM. The current extraction rates at hernic indicate we could be getting around 1700 oz per month when running at 55000 tonnes per month (about 20000oz per year). Add in the latest info about DCM being 10000oz per year when up and running we have 30000oz per year. Less than the 36000oz per year (3000oz per month) aimed for, but not far off, and conceivable that oz's recovered will improve as the hernic plant is fine tuned.

"how do you account for a BOD that regularly misleads investors?" In my view there's a fine line between 'misleading' investors, and not saying something that's going to cause panic amongst shareholders. Take hernic as an example - the project was first announced in Jan 2015, construction didn't start until spring 2016, and it's now 2018 when we're only just starting to see the potential of it on the balance sheet. How popular do we think the board would have been if we'd been told at the time something like "it's a great project doing something we've never done before, but it's going to take loads of cash, there'll be loads more shares issued and we won't see any returns for 3 years"? I wouldn't have invested in that, and doubt many others would have done. But now it's starting to pay off with increasingly good production figures, I'm happy with how it's going.

Arielarrow - just some rough workings out on what info we do have. Possible revenue and earnings from hernic projected out for the coming 12 months by using the amount of PGMs currently being extracted per tonne of tailings (roughly 0.03oz per tonne), and the stated target of processing 55000 tonnes per month (which we haven't achieved yet). We also know from figures a rough cost per Oz and revenue received for PGMs DCM chrome calculated from the annual results, and using the new agreement of a 50/50 split in earnings. DCM platinum - only a guess that extraction rates per tonne, costs and revenue will be similar to hernic.

Overall a good RNS showing steady progress, with the fairly usual mix of good and 'not so good' news. I'm slightly disappointed that there has been a reduction of output from Hernic as highlighted by hex314. Although we were pre-warned that there may be a reduction in December, so not a complete surprise. But on the plus side (my calculations from the figures), 1. the amount of PGM's we're extracting per tonne has remained stable (roughly 0.031 oz per tonne), 2. the revenue we're getting per Oz has increased - up to $770 per oz from $760 in the last figures 3. the cost per Oz has fallen. The BMR project looks promising, and we were previously told an update due by 28th Feb. I would guess at the timelines from DCM platinum is going to end up being about 12 months from now until we start seeing significant of PGM's (if construction started within the next 6 months). Likewise for Platcro

Completely get that, I also bought on the basis this had multi bagger all over it. (and a much quicker multi bag!) I do think its possible, but I think for the time being working on a P/E of 7 is too generous. I'd give it P/E 5 for the simple reason that the projects up and running may not go on for longer than 5 years. They may go on for longer, but the complications with the BR processes at both leave it outside our control in my view. From the figures we do have, it looks to me like we could be delivering for the coming 12 months: Revenue of approx. �25M (Hernic �15.5M, DCM Chrome �9.5M) Profit of approx. �10.3M (Hernic �7.3M, DCM chrome @ 50% share �3M) �10.3M x P/E 5 = �51.5M (slightly more than current MCAP) However, it could start to increase quite quickly now. Add in the potential PGM at DCM, with potentially �5M profit per year if anything like Hernic brings us to a MCAP of about �75M The further projects will add more, but at the moment we don't know enough about time scales, costs and potential revenues to factor those in. Once those are in motion, then I would hope a P/E nearer 10 would be justified, giving a MCAP of about �150M before the extra revenue starts to come in.

Lets face it that this is a high risk investment. Its a small company on AIM that has struggled in the mining sector (not unlike some very large mining companies on the FTSE). I'm here because I believe the potential gain I can make far exceeds the potential loss I could make. I've not been invested for as long as some, (first bought in 2015), and originally thought this could a quick profit and move on investment. But having followed for a few years and increased my stake during that time, I'm reasonably happy with the direction. Sure the timescales and lack of comms does annoy me a little sometimes, but on the whole JLP have been delivering what they say they will since I've been invested. Just not always within the timescales they first indicate, and perhaps not quite as profitable and quickly as we would like.