Member Info for moneyhawk

I’m not so sure the bmr deal collapsing will have such a big impact long term. Definitely will be a set back, and probably impact the SP short term. But doesn’t impact on existing projects or other projects still to get going. May cause some embarrassment for the individuals involved in this mess. But on the other hand they’ve stuck their necks out to say ‘we’re ready to sign deals, we’re funded and we’re able to get projects operational’. Plus they’re making contacts with the Zambian authorities in the process, which could all be very beneficial if they want to see more mining happening in Zambia.

Agree that’s extremely promising and worth taking a punt in. Big question for me though is whether it’s actually true. But if it is, and the business has grown further since, and there’s no surprise acquisitions/write downs announced with the next update that by coincidence wipe out any profits, then this will surely have a very significant rise. With such a low mcap it’s quite possible full year revenue and even gross profit could exceed it. An outside chance actual profit could also be close to the current mcap if the business has really pushed on since the last update.

Disappointed with the SP too. But not entirely surprised, all major markets down overall today, and we haven’t exactly had good news this week for JLP to buck the trend.

The SP has fallen to such a low level that minuscule price changes represent a huge percentage change. Its just down 2 one hundredths of a penny, but that's 20% at these prices!

Yes, but they won’t have £300k to give us! And shares being pretty much worthless if they can’t be traded, so the only thing that springs to mind is asset transfer as payment in this scenario.

Fair enough, thanks. I guess that having taken the position that the licence being under threat is serious enough to warrant suspension, then it’s a bit difficult to say it’s no longer a problem until formerly dealt with.

why BMR is still suspended. Understandable at the start, looked like they had missed the chance for appeal before they knew/disclosed the licence had been revoked. But now the picture looks a lot clearer, they can appeal and have a good case with JLP on board providing the finance and ability to get going stright away. Something else going on maybe that they've yet to tell us?

Link to all the licences in Zambia mapped out (does not work very well on mobiles): http://portals.flexicadastre.com/zambia/ BMRs licence in question, 7081-HQ-SML, shows as still active, so not all lost yet! Also shows permitted commodities as cobalt, copper, lead and zinc. Interestingly it gives the application and grant dates, 10 weeks to be granted in this case. Had a look at a few others, and most also have pretty quick timescales for being granted from the application date. So if we need to apply for a new licence, perhaps just a delay of a few months involved.

A positive trading update would be good, and last year we had one in feb following the end of year. As much as I think one should be made, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if we have to wait for the audited end of year accounts to find out what’s been going on. Supposedly the H1 revenues expected were delayed and were going to roll into H2. Huge potential here, but only if what they have said in the last few RNSs is actually happening. I’m not sure, but holding to find out with fingers crossed!

I’ve also looked at investing in bmr when the Kabwe deal was first announced. Decided against it for now, and especially after yesterday will wait a while longer to see how this all plays out. My reasoning for not investing yet is that the revenue share bmr will get will be their only income and could well just get eaten up with ongoing business costs and covering existing commitments on other projects. For JLP however, the costs we incur are paid off before the 60/40 split starts, after which our 40% should directly improve the bottom line together with other improving revenue streams. Always a dilemma in investing, now could be the absolute bottom for bmr and the best time to get in. Then again, the bottom will be zero if they go under.

Very true vmax, if the intention is to force the mining into action in Zambia, then you’d have to give credit to the government for doing something. JLP could well come out of this with a good deal. I wonder if our much criticised chairman with his fingers in lots of pies got wind of the situation some time ago and saw an opportunity to get his foot in the door and capitalise on with our funding stream already in place? Perhaps though JLP should bear this in mind in South Africa and our tjate licence, with a new president coming who’ll no doubt want to do something to sort out the economy there.

Just seen this link posted on the bmr board. Perhaps could be an easy resolution to this after all. Suggests that all the government is after is active use of the licences they issue. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/01/13/zambia-starts-revoking-600-mining-licences-dormant-mines/

I was about to say let bmr go under and try to pick up the pieces from the administrator. But looking at MM’s post at 17.29, sounds like that option is complicated by someone else having a claim to Kabwe. All in all a bit of shambles just when it looked to be going so well. Doesn’t really change a huge amount for JLP though. We were unlikely to see any revenue coming in from this until at least next year, and we were going to have to finance the project up to that point from debt/cash/placements. And probably our other projects wouldn’t get going as quickly as they could if the focus is on Kabwe, so in that respect, better it falls apart now than further down the line. I’d much rather this project does go ahead though, but perhaps a ‘fast track’ project is off the cards now!

Interesting idea, but if we do get a licence issued to us instead of bmr, bmr still own the tailings. However we’re now the biggest shareholder in bmr, plus CB has his own holdings as well. Anyone care to guess how a shareholder vote at bmr is going to go if that’s needed to sort this out?

sorry, meant to write terminated, not suspended in the heading

From the last JLP RNS on the kabwe deal: "Enviro Processing Ltd holds the Small Scale Licence 7081-HQ-SML in respect of the Tailings Stockpiles on and the Large Scale Licence 6990-HQ-LML (applying to the whole 703 hectares of the BMR Kabwe site." The bad news is that the licence terminated is the first one for the tailings which is what we're after, the second licence isn't mentioned. Major problem? What does the other licence cover (the large scale licence for the whole site)? Anyone know?

Oh dear, not a good start to our JV! But since the project doesn’t currently involve mining, may not cause any delay? And shows the relative strength of JLP now, a major project has some bad news and our JV partner suspends trading, while for JLP at worst it’s a setback in expansion plans with losses that can be covered by existing projects.

Very true rosewall, potential high value assets is one thing, actually producing and getting money in the bank is an entirely different ball game. Here’s hoping our experience of getting Hernic and DCM into production is going to be a huge benefit in trying to fast track this one.

Re the $1B figure - Possible its there, and possible its more if vanadium is also recoverable from the tailings, but of course only 40% is ours. A bit more detail wouldn't go amiss. But from the detail so far, they've told us (from BMR estimates) that: 1. there's around 6.4m tonnes of tailings at surface. 2. two of the piles (about half of the tailings, or 3.2M tonnes) contain 272k tonnes of lead, and 163k tonnes of zinc 3. tests have shown recovery rates possible at varying levels for the different metals and tailings piles. Using these amounts and possible recovery rates given leaves: 1. 221k tonnes of lead, at todays prices about �400M in value 2. 99k tonnes of zinc, at todays prices about �250M in value. So I make it as about �650M in possible revenue (not profit) sitting there, not taking into account the remaining 3M tonnes of tailings or vanadium. What we don't know is what profit we could make per tonne after the cost of processing the tailings, and over what time scale. And of course we don't know if what we produce will need further refinement that either adds extra cost or reduced earnings per tonne. But whatever it ends up being, some large numbers do not look impossible on this project.

Yes I agree, fast track may well be to start production this year, but we won't see much revenue until 2019. Looking at Hernic as a guide, expecting several months of ramping up production after completion before any significant revenue starts to come in. On the question of serious or desperate, I would say serious. At the moment JLP don't look desperate for this to happen. We've got plenty on the go if this didn't go ahead. DCM platinum is finally looking like its progressing and we've got Platcro as the next project in the pipeline after that.