Member Info for Monaco

Many attempts to run up past 5700 have failed but the big boys say more gains are on the cards. I know that the rally's not really been that long but when you've got lots of 'skin' in the game it seems a long time. When is this soufflé gonna run out of steam?

I thought I might tentatively revive this thread as some of the people on 'Spreadbetting' board seem to be getting fired up about the significance of low interest rates in the expanding equity bubble. We have seen that all it takes is a hint that interest rates will rise next year for the indices to tumble.

TiE, Thanks for looking in on this board. I know it's a bit tucked away. I am not targetting 5000 at all. I think it could happen but I will be delighted and shall probably unwind all of my shorts if the FTSE gets to 5400.

I read this on Friday, posted by TiE on LLOY (19/3 11:05) it worried me a bit at the time (due to my exposure to a market rise) but less so now: "whats even more funny is i saw the words "double dip" passed around a lot this week by some people on here, why would one think this when the US and european indices have all hit new yr highs this week! it signals strength and more strength and strength should be BOUGHT not sold. weakness should be sold....and the indices have quite a bit more to rise which should support the sp" I would like to have it confirmed: Do Friday's close and today's opening signal weakness in the broad market and should this weaknesss be sold? [I don't particularly care about LLOY at this time.]

Finally, a bit of tankage going on... I need to review my limits and hold my nerve long enough for a good dip (without missing the dip altogether of course, but waiting too long is never my problem). This could get going and selling momentuim could take FTSE down to 5000, why not? Dow Jones will wake up to higher taxes on business (the healthcare bill is the right thing to do though). UK business is concerned about the budget, a longer recessionary period (CBI and others), bank industry tax, BA strike and the sheeple are worried that property is not as unaffordable as it was and may even become affordable!

Okay, so the bulls were right and the indices have risen to their highest levels since Sep 08. Surely some correction is due. I can't wait for it to break, hopefully tomorrow.

Plays, I certainly am still short on FTSE (and DAX and DJ and Gold). I shall watch what happens at 5510. thanks from Monaco

There's not much going on yet considering last week's excitement. I am a bit worried that the markets might be consolidating, preparing for another push but I sense that the market is quite jittery and that one chunk of bad news could start an avalanche. So Plays, what do you reckon now. Head & Shoulders, Cup & Handle, Apples & Pears (up the stairs) or what? ;o)

TIE, I don't want to wait weeks!

I was trying to be funny but I am now thinking that would actually feel like a long day.

I am shorter than a winter's day at the North pole. Short on FTSE, DAX, DJIA and Gold. Yeah, I have the thingy. I'll try again. I was either too close to make sense or too far to see detail. Thanks man, I do appreciate your input.

Bahman, I can't quite get the zoom right but I appreciate the link. You're saying DJIA will dip back below 10460 in this trading session? BTW, I am short on FTSE at 5560 and 5600.

Wow, what a day. 5605 was reached on FTSE 100 at 15:15 and DJIA is reaching for 10540 right now. Late afternoons on Fridays has been an exciting time of late. cf. 5th of Feb!

Well, if they won't come here I shall just continue to build my bower myself. Quoting TIE to Azzurri 4th Mar 16:08 on LLOY board: "4500 was on the cards as a possible h&S was forming, but now that ftse is closing in on 5600 it is soon to become negated meaning there is not much chance of that either. it is looking like 4950-5800 consolidation range for this yr me thinks, it is going to be rangebound, a traders market, not buy and hold. ftse does not have much more room to rise imo so the only thing im thinking of right now is shorting but will wait for 5555/5600 first." I find it very interesting that TIE mentions 5555. Not 5500 or even 5550. I have noticed that 5555 is relevant, providing resistance and support, often the location of a trend reversal on DAX and FTSE. So far today the FTSE has maxxed at 5557.8 which would have allowed a sell at 5555.7, assuming spread of 2.

The following was posted to me by Bahman today: "sorry I missed your post earlier For what it's worth (just my opinon) FTSE - technically in uptrend, altho 5550 is immediate line of resistence, with 5600 being major resistence. MACD is raging like a bull in china shop and shows no sign of waning. RSI is just a smidge over 70 (signallying overbought and delines due). Elliot wave theory suggests that are markets are about to peak immenintely before substantive declines (next bear market!!!!) One positive for FTSE is that it has not broken below the daily trend (sppt) from last march/ july - unlike US indices. But I think the FTSE (as approaching key resis points) is waiting for it's cue from the US. DJI technical in uptrend as it broke 10440 swing high point a couple of days ago. However, it is finding that same level a resistence which it has been unable to break free of sice yesterday. yesterdays close was 10374. If this breaks today/ tomorrow it may be followed by a weakish counter rally, which will be the signal to short this market. Indicators are showing signs of turning negative (but still in current positive mode). RSI is at 59 suggesting ythat further small increase may be squezzed out of it yet. Resistence points 10500 and 10700. I would suggest we may well see 10600. 2 salient points to consider in all this: 1) US non farm figs out tomorrow - which is what I suspect the markets are waiting for 2) we are exactly one year on from march 2009 lows - read in to that what you will. (will markets sucker investors in thinking bull market to re-commence, before wiping them clean?) If markets do fall then fib levels from march 2009 to highs of jan 10 will be taken as possible areas of sppt in an descending market of course you are well aware with fundamentals: Greece cream ****ed, UK to follow, etc etc. Global currencies completely ****ed Sorry mate, probably not the response you were looking for, but it is very difficult to call at the mo. tomorrow in my opinon is key. ATB"

correction - 5600 was touched on 11th Jan but the 10th closed the highest.

All, I would like to stimulate some discussion about what might be the upper and lower limits for the FTSE 100 in 2010. It is currently at 5500. 5050 is the lowest close this year, though 5033 was reached intraday (8/2). The January rally, held every year in honour of TIE's birthday, stopped just short of 5570 (10/1). Throwing my hat in the ring, rather unadventurously, I would say that there is a very high chance of 4950 being seen because I am not that optimistic overall for the markets. Interest rate rises will have to come or at least be anticipated which will shake a lot of money out of the markets. By the same token, I do not think that 6000 can be exceeded. Interested to hear others' upper and lower predictions for 10...

Part of me is tempted to go long from 0.888 since it is very unlikely that we won't see 0.89 or 0.90 again very soon but I would feel uncomfortable betting against my longer term forecast, which is for GBP strength and EUR weakness.

Neil, I only have rudimentary skills for using charts but I have a reasonable feel and a good memory so I maintain some perspective and don't just get caught up in the moment. That said, fairly recent conditioning has led me to close my EUR/GBP shorts when they get to 0.885. I believe that in the next few months it will go much lower than that but, as you said, the pair is range-bound so I would be looking for confirmation that things had changed - lower lows and lower highs in the oscillations - before targetting lower limits. For example, I would not be surprised at all to see 0.8 (i.e. €1.25/£1) but I won't be tying up margin for the long play when I can just nibble on the swing until I get that confirmation.

EUR/USD short worked nicely today for reasons I set out earlier on the adjacent EUR/GBP thread.