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TiE, We understand. You are not the only one who gets fed up explaining things. (I remember not so long ago when you were chasing your tail and pulling your hair out about selling LLOY to buy back higher and vice versa! I also remember how you didn't grasp the essential aspects of the forthcoming LLOY issue when we discussed it a week or two ago) I have said before that a house of cards is being built on a shaky foundation. I am not saying that traders cannot make money (itself being devalued) on this rising market, I am however discouraging anyone who might think that it is a sound investment. Have your fun and enjoy feeling very smart, for now.

Bahman, Q3 of 2009 is worse than Q3 of 2008, which was crap. TiE, All you can say about that is that things are not getting crappier as fast as they were. But, they are still getting crappier and there will be lots more unemployment and lost more funny money being created. By no stretch of symantics is that very positive. Lovely day here, bon appétit!

Bahman, I want to see some real tankage; sub 5k, people screaming and running around and slapping each other to get a grip stuff! Yeah, bring it!

A couple of stories about UK plc today. I have been banging on here for some time about reduced revenue and increased cost. The Telegraph says that clearly stating that "benefit payouts were up nearly 10 per cent on the same month last year while the Government's VAT and income tax revenues were both down by more than 13 per cent". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6385714/Public-sector-borrowing-worst-since-1946.html The Times warns that Britain may be half way through a W-shaped recession with much more insolvency to come. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/support_services/article6882358.ece

Bluesprite, I think that TiE's "retirement" may be a euphemism for being laid off.

I am too passionate about a fall to answer that objectively. I see almost everything as a sell. The banks are zombies. They should be dead but are walking and 'profiting' due to massive cash injections. As I tried to say the other day, making a bit of money when you have been given lots for free doesn't make a person or a business successful. As soon as the QE is recalled or sensible interest is charged or they run out of costs to cut, they will be dead again.

Bluesprite, it's never easy to leave the bandwagon but it will be wrecked. If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs, if you can the madness for what it is, then you will have the last laugh.

Mark Are you the king of the swingers or are you just going ape in Morocco?

Feels like this is it, the peak. Many people with only a casual interest in the market will have heard or read this morning that all the indices are at their highest levels in over 12 months. DJIA does not look confident of staying above 10000. It's too early to be sure with Wall St calling the shots and GS results to be digested but 5850 on DAX and 5250 on FTSE are such massive achievements, where do people expect it to go from there? There's only one way to go, and that is down.

Bahman, "once the quarter-end jam job is passed, the vacuum under the market could become apparent", I love it! How did you find this guy? "Of course the bulls could give you a plethora of wrong-headed arguments...as crazy as the gibberish you hear on CNBC day in and day out as they continually promote the gaming of stocks higher at the behest of their corporate sponsors. Here, the better arguments would point to the inventories that need replacing, and the ‘new normal’ when it comes to perceiving largely worsening news. Less bad, history doesn’t matter this time around – you name it, these bozos are never lacking for words – only conscience and common sense."

DAX is rocking out at 5850. This is the level it was at in Sept 2006. Hell of a recovery from 3666 in March this year. Almost 60% plus currency appreciation.

Anyone conecrned about unemployment figures and the associated lower tax revenues, higher social costs, reduced consumption? "UK unemployment in the three months through August as measured by International Labour Organisation standards was 7.9 percent, the Statistics Office said. That compares with 9.6 percent in the euro region, 9.8 percent in the U.S. and 5.5 percent in Japan" The Bloomberg article goes on to hint that these figures are perched on a ledge with potential for many more job losses with employers in a wait-and-see situation. "SIGNS of recovery are allowing some companies to limit job losses. General Motors Co.’s U.K.-based Vauxhall unit, which employs more than 5,000 people, will suffer no compulsory job losses following its planned takeover by Magna International Inc. of Canada, the Unite union said yesterday." What if those signs turn out to be duff? How many people are under-employed having been laid off and taking any job available? There are only so many McJobs to go around and fewer when 10% or more of people are out of work. This could knock on to a job implosion. source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=azCkObXEirDQ

Pat, Good thoughts as usual. I am very interested in the subjects of QE, BOP, imports to UK, cash out of UK in tourism and foreign property investment. I'd be pleased to hear your response to the interest rate thread that I started in this section.

Bahman, you kind of reduced your credibility with the remark, "I've just consulted my tea leaves"! I'll be happy and relieved if we were right, albeit too early. The 50% rise since March, as we have said all along, is too frothy. The 5200 level still looks very significant. FTSE finds it hard to get far past that.

Good article which sums up a lot of points we have been making: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-why-the-soaring-gold-price-should-set-alarm-bells-ringing-1799924.html

This is a massive factor in the economy today. Quantitative easing, exchange rates, the balance of payments, asset protection schemes, consumption stimulation, overseas earnings (reported in USD or GBP), opportunity cost of funds (why save at 1% when you can throw it all at a manipulated market?), loan defaults, property prices. These are SOME of the issues of the day that absolutely hinge on the interest rate policies of the BoE and other central banks. This weekend I read how the UK must raise the interest rate. Just hours later the wire lit up with every news agency fanfaring the Centre for Economics and Business Research, or CEBR (never heard of them) saying that "the key rate will remain at its current 0.5% level until 2011 and not reach 2% until 2014". Someone really doesn't want us to save. We should drink ourselves out of the hangover! Post your thoughts, predictions and links here. Let's see how this plays out... one to start: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/10/08/you-never-know-when-rates-will-rise/

Back in the darker days we used to say 'get greedy when everyone else is nervous'? I am reminded of the other side of Buffett's motto right now as pretty much every scrap of news is that the only way is up. "When the market gets greedy I get nervous; when the market gets nervous I get greedy"

Curiously, the main indices have respected a smaller range today. FTSE has been 5124-5172, 50 points with DAX and DJIA not managing their usual 100 point swings. [DAX: 5673-5750 DJIA: 9757-9830]

Bahman, 5200 has been a marker for me. It is rather disillusioning to see the markets being so manipulated but I am a little too old to be that naive. I feel like I do in the run up to a storm when the pressure builds and it starts to hurt your head and you just wish it would rain.

Okay, I did my sums: March: €10000 x 0.89 = £8900 into FTSE at 3600 Oct: FTSE at 5100 returns £12608 / 0.9245 = €13637 In these terms, FTSE has risen 36% in 6 months.