Posted in: forex-and-indices
EUR/GBP (GBP/EUR)24 Apr 2009 11:21
Hi,
I had a little €/£ chat going on here somewhere in General but I can't locate it this morning. It would be good to have some quality discussion on what is a very significant ratio affecting the price of goods in and from the UK, pensions, property speculation, holidays...
Allow me to present a potted modern history:
I believe that around 1992 the ERM had 0.74 (1.35) in mind for the Euro Pound (Pound/Euro) to be pegged.
For quite a few years since the introduction of the Euro, the rule of thumb for most holidaymakers was 0.67, two thirds (1.5). This was convenient and usually not far from the truth.
From 2007, the Pound dropped in large steps 1.45, 1.35, 1.2, 1.1 (I can't be bothered to do 1/x here).
Over December 2008 the media threatened parity; 1:1!
Shortly after the start of 2009, the EUR/GBP dropped from 0.96 to 0.93 where it hovered, roughly, before dropping to where we are today 0.89.
€/£ is threatening a rise over the last couple of days but, as I have asserted for some months here, I think that the Euro is due a real shock. From personal experience, goods in the Eurozone are too expensive in Sterling terms. With few exceptions, everything that one buys looks cheap when visiting the UK. The switch from FFR, ITL, DMK, PTA caused a lot of price inflation, devaluing pensions and many salaries such that common items were put out of the reach of common people. The massive social costs of Europe and trying to reconcile different economies (Ireland, Greece, Germany, Portugal, Baltic states) into one trading zone is going to reveal cracks before long. Nationalistic gestures will cause offence as demonstrations increase and protectionist policies are introduced. Europe is behind the curve of the US and the Commonwealth in this recession, the INSEAD statistic crunchers are slow and the news is even slower. It's not easy here to downsize your businesses or your public sector but the economic engines of Eurozone consumption, exports, tourism, construction, fiscal revenues are slowing significantly.