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5170... It is starting to look like the house wins, no matter what. USD and GBP are losing value so the numbers on the indices tell a lie...but that is academic while the red numbers beside my positions are real...or as real as anything can be! It is interesting to note that FTSE, DOW, S&P performance over 6 months, if viewed through the lens of the silver or gold price is flat or worse. Indeed, if I had invested €10,000 into a FTSE tracker in March and liquidated it today I am sure I would have lost (I'll need to look into that more) so what does that tell you? Is the rally an illusion? Am I going mad?

I have not taken the EUR/USD pair into my portfolio but am considering the following: I have a fair bit of EUR (cash in bank) that makes me nothing and I have no use for. I can buy physical gold with it and I reckon that in two years, even if the price does not move above $1050/oz, it should still buy more than €700/oz.

TIE, well FTSE closed sub 5150 (just) and I consider this another failed test. I am aware of the reports and hope that they will come as a slap (or glass of cold water) in the face of the now hysterical market, causing it to get a grip!

So tired, tired of waiting... When will the market take a dive?! Arghh, its all just teetering, hanging by a thread. FTSE looks like closing sub 5150 again and DJIA is unsure to go above 9800.

I like it: simulation. I feel a big test coming today of 9850 on the DJ and 5180 on the FTSE. Those tests should fail, producing the results we saw last Thursday... but more pronounced this time.

PB, The price of gold is surely a vote of no confidence for the USD. With this in mind, even if Wall St is going up, it matters little. In real terms the slump is already happening.

FTSE has failed to break 5150 this week and dropped a little overall today. I think that this unconvincing 'sideways' performance may last until Friday but I am still (zzzzzzz) expecting a proper drop.

The opposite of your play would be a guy who is based in Euro buying Gold with USD, waiting for Gold to go up and getting more USD than he paid but changing back into EUR and getting less than he started with! Some people around here (S of France) are happy to sell their house for fewer EUR than they paid because it will still buy more GBP than they paid.

Bahman, perhaps you did not understand me. If one wants to make money out of Euro going down (from charting, wuishing to hedge being paid in Euro or for whatever reason) one needs to pick the pair. You want to pair with USD in this instance, I pair with GBP. I have two instruments at my disposal: I can long GBP/EUR and make EUR or short EUR/GBP and make GBP. I choose the one that will make GBP because that is what I believe will appreciate, and what I want to earn. I hope that is clearer - assuming that things play your way, you want to earn what will be worth more.

Bahman, I think you have two things working for you; the EUR is improbably high and the USD has had (some of) the stuffing kicked out of it. [I prefer the EUR/GBP short because I prefer to make and bank GBP at the moment. As an aside to this discussion, which is more about pairs than direction, it would seem illogical to aim to make profits in the currency one expects to devalue.]

Bahman, as I am sure you are aware, that has been discussed for a long long time - Saddam wanted to get onto dealing oil for EUR - if it happens, it won't happen in one shock. I think that there is a strong case for a country to hold reserves of EUR/CHF/CNY/USD. Of course, if the USD ceases to be the reserve and devalues sharply then China will be hammered as they hold so much. In short, I agree that EUR is too high against USD, GBP and a number of others.

Okay but wouldn't you say that the gold run hints that the bears will out?

KiS, the sheeple are falling for the 'emperor's new clothes'. I am impressed by today's gains and have slapped another short on the DAX.

0.927!

Ooops, my 'varies as' symbol came out "α"

KiS, I see that connection too. FTSE AND/OR DAX α ƒ(EUR/GBP) I am short on all of these (with minor hedges for interim profits) and they are all losers at the moment. A bit more interest paid on GBP would upset the apple cart; GBP up and FTSE down. Equally, more concern that the recovery isn't working will devalue the EUR and DAX.

FTSE 100 is back up at 5100 this morning. I still think it's (over)due a stuffing and will get down to 4800 but when, this week? It's rarely dull.

Dow Jones just went to 9838 and bounced strongly back down.

Maybe someone is a paid up Investors' Chronicle member and can post the salient points of this article:- http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/articlessummary/index.jsp?destination=http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Columnists/SimonThompson/article/20090921/2ee9e71c-a68f-11de-9922-0015171400aa/Time-for-caution.jsp&Cond=5

"The closing low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) this year was 6547 on March 9. On September 22, the autumnal equinox, the DJIA closed at 9830, which represents a 50% gain from the low, and stalled out. The S&P 500 hit a 50% gain off its March INTRADAY low of 666 at 999 in early August. A 50% gain off its CLOSING low of 677 equates to 1015, or approximately a Fibonacci 0.382 retrace of the entire bear market. Did the market hold up until the DJIA could reach its 50% mark off the low until quarter end, until the Autumnal Equinox? Markets seek equilibrium. The 50% Rule is powerful, acting as a point of balance in the markets. For example, the decline in the S&P from its 2000 peak found its low precisely 50% off that high in 2002." Slightly scatty but interesting article: http://www.minyanville.com/articles/retracement-trend-minyanville/index/a/24655