Member Info for mole_man99

People still hanging around here thinking it’s real? Over 20 years of director cash machine is all it is. They never want a mine. The grift will finish.

Rachael raising taxes to fill a now 50bn hole, and increasing, in Autumn finishing off any hope of growth. Laffer curve in full effect. The debt doom loop is approaching the ground floor.

Sell.

Less than zero appetite for UK now. The slightest nudge from an advisor, and the flighty international money runs for the exit.

When the UK gov debt doom spiral reaches the ground floor, all UK stock will get hammered, and VOD will get double hammered because of the weak balance sheet, having wasted cash on divs and buybacks.

Gonna take a while, but that is where it is headed without change.

UK also the problem. The big money know what is going on and are just prepping for the inevitable finance crisis UK will have by getting out of UK investment.

Donnie was smacking the PM’s botty on live TV yesterday. They all know what’s going to happen and why. Ordinary folk are the ones who will suffer. VOD’s customers.

VOD is not going to be immune to the financial chaos coming for UK. Another 40,000 jobs confirmed lost in June. Jobs down every month since labour got in (and they try to say they increase them).

Inflation going back up due to policy decisions. Higher employment tax and higher council tax have increased prices counter to the rest of the world.

Unfunded welfare and immigration policies inevitably mean higher tax in Autumn which will lead to more job losses, inflation and finally the failed bond auction which will have international markets evacuating and the gbp crashing to near dollar parity.

Have majority of your investments outside UK, and being priced in dollars you’ll survive the currency collapse.

Yes, allocate a percent to Bitcoin.

Doomed I tell yer

Mole

Khan has a lot to answer for. Workspace was a great company to own. Now just at the mercy of big international money’s opinion of London, which is get out at all costs.

Badly financially managed company, that is now stuck firmly in the coming UK financial collapse thinking. No way it’s going to motor upwards till UK collapse is resolved.

UK has no money, has to pay the highest and increasing cost of G7 to borrow, and still adds more financial obligations. The end is going to be messy and UK stock market will get dragged in.

Doom mole.

International investors are positioning themselves for UK to be the first economy to hit the debt wall. It will manifest itself in failed bond auctions.

We don’t have the worst figures in the world by some metrics, but we have the worst government and societal issues. Unfunded increased benefit spending will require eye watering growth killing tax increases which won’t cover the bill because the rich who pay most taxes are leaving.

Go short UK by having most your investments elsewhere.

Cruel VOD. Throw in a 3 percenter while the US is shut and tease investors to stay in for the boom.

Meanwhile, our chancellor is crying in commons cause it’s all going so well. Look away look away.

The canary in the coal mine is back. Greggs crashing today. If people cut back on £1.50 sausage rolls they will sure as it cut their mobile bill, however they can

Last night MP’s voted to massively increase tax by massively increasing the welfare bill we must pay

Just a matter of time before economic reality arrives at VOD

I’m fully out of WKP now for first time since 2008.

In that period I learnt it is totally sentiment driven. If the world is excited about London property, price go up to a bit beyond NAV. The fact it’s 50% off NAV tells you what you need to know. I see nothing to change international sentiment on investing in the UK.

Will watch for a sentiment shift as the company itself is great, but it may not be till after the next election.

CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang’s keynote in Paris yesterday. He bought up slides of all the European partners building out the global AI factory. On the telcos slide VOD was conspicuous by its absence. VOD is getting left behind concentrating on running the business for shareholders.

Anyways, probably irrelevant as all UK companies are prisoners of the macro now. Another £170bn borrowed FY25 and rising faster. International money lenders are starting to choke as UK has highest 10yr interest of all G7. Cutting interest rates doesn’t help as the bond market sets its own rate.

Jobs vacancies collapsing as companies won’t hire due to the NI tax rise. Rachael’s only thought is increase taxes to pay for it.

Total collapse is imminent.

Happy Thursday followers.

Investors are looking for growth in RR., and if they get it it is not overvalued.

Most importantly and relevant to VOD, they have gained a premium valuation for sorting the business out. That new CEO was good to his words. It’s a dumpster fire and we’ll sort it or die trying.

VOD should have got in a proper trouble shooter CEO, and most importantly cancelled the div and not done brain dead buybacks.

Well done Rolls board.

Have they found one? It's been 20 years.

They sure are good at finding more money for their wages.

Yes I understand BTC, at my level at least, and why it’s going up and will continue to do so. If you don’t believe in its function then you will never like it, which is fine.

It’s not the scarcity, it’s the hard limit of coins. The number of dollars in the world is infinite as more get printed. More have to be printed to service debt. Infinite dollars go into limited BTC. In fact BTC is shrinking as keys get lost those coins are gone forever.

Raoul Pal offers some thought (former UK investment banking macro guy

Over time, due to aging demographics, governments need to borrow more money to support GDP growth to pay interest on the debt.

At over 100% of GDP in debt there isn't enough economic cash flow to fund the debt growth so it gets "printed" via Fed Net Liquidity and also forced, via regulation, onto the balance sheet of the banks.

That debases the currency and lowers the denominator, optically making scarce assets more valuable.

Crypto (Mainly Bitcoin) is the life raft as it not only offsets the annual 8% debasement but also gains value due to adoption effects.

It's all demographics. It always has been

You’re completely wrong Dan, but you’ll never change your view which is fine.

The US vice president has just spoken at the BTC global conference to tell holders how supportive they aim to be. Governments are understanding BTC now.

Ray Dalio is correct as 25% of US government income goes on debt interest. Eventually this would be 100% as there appears no way to reduce the borrowing. Elon tried and the swamp didn’t like it.

The only solution is a massive expansion of GDP, and so they work on this. It’s why autonomous bots are coming.

It’s the same in UK, except our government chooses to tackle it by discouraging business and increasing taxes on its citizens while encouraging more non productive non citizens to come. Perplexing.

International investors can see it, and so avoid UK markets and we get lowly valuations.

Yes US has debt to gdp issues like every country. They will be last to buckle under it is the point.

We’ll be technically bankrupt long before US and with a weaker ability to issue new debt to keep things going.

The US mindset is going at the problem by harnessing AI and robotics to massively accelerate GDP. The companies focused on AI and robotics are going to do spectacularly well.

Meanwhile in UK we abuse our citizens in favour of unknown men, clamp down on free speech, raise taxes to discourage entrepreneurs and just casually threaten Russia with war.

In a short term cycle it will go up and down against the dollar, but just zoom out to say a 30 year chart. You can see the overall ultimate direction.

With UK’s role as a world class finance hub slipping away, there will be less and less demand for sterling, so it will slip overall against the dollar, which will remain the worlds reserve currency despite attempts to end it.

I’ve moved 90% of my investible assets stateside Rob, as I wanted to invest in energetic companies not reliant on UK EU revenue, and prefer my funds in dollars against the long term decline of Sterling.

Also you can DCA in to BTC. It’s just going to keep going up as long as global M2 liquidity increases, which it will for as long as we have governments with FIAT currencies and rising debts to service.