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Share trading you mean. Bad for your wealth.
Fidelity analysed its clients’ portfolios between 2003 and 2013 and found that the best-performing portfolios belonged to those who hadn’t touched their investments. Coincidentally, many of these thriving investors were already dead.
So, pick the right companies with a good chance of growing earnings next 5 to 10 years, invest and wait.
VOD still does not make it into my retirement fund though. I struggle to see the strategy for earnings growth with the plan to back it up.
'THIS IS THE WORST SHARE IN THE FTSE BY FAR'
Almost and depending on the timeframe.
SP only
1 year, Persimmon is the worst -40.25%, but VOD a solid second at -37.95%.
5 year, of consttituents that have been in for the 5 years, VOD is third from bottom, -59.39%. IAG takes the reverse gold at -63.01%
Great table from HL in link to play with. Some consolation for HL who did even worse than VOD last 5 years.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/performance?column=date_5y&order=desc
" '5 years -60%. FTSE -2%'
58% upside from here at least?"
So it will still be 37% down on the FTSE.
Maths is hard.
Oh the irony, eh Dan.
There are different ways to get to the figure. VOD are taking EDITDAal which has depreciation and ammortisation added back in (or not deducted), and then adding/deducting further movements from there to get the FCF.
Table Page 20 of the report.
https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2023-05/Vodafone-FY23-Results-Announcement.pdf
'Mole - Vodafone Group annual free cash flow for 2023 was $12.395B (Dollars)'
Gary, I think you are looking at some American site that is compunding the shares for the ADR's. Divide that figure by 10 perhaps.
Page 3 of the company report,
Free cash flow was an inflow of €1.4 billion (FY22: inflow of €3.3 billion) partly reflecting a lower adjusted EBITDAaL,
higher licence and spectrum payments and tax phasing. Adjusted free cash flow was €4.8 billion (FY22: €5.4 billion).
Correction, actual FCF does not cover the div, from their own figures.
Real FCF was €1.4bn in 23, and the div was €2.4bn.
The figure they quote is adjusted FCF, where things like spectrum payment are added back in, but they still have to pay them. Look away look away.
The shortfall is currently being funded by selling off assets. There is no growth in the assets base, or even FCF here, hence the apparent low sp, which is actually a bit high. Unless they can prove a strategy for growth in future cash flows.
Sticking prices up is not it.
And where did you read the FCF is down? And where did you read about customer churn?
Adjusted free cash flow is projected €3.3bn. It was €4.8 in 2023, down from over 5. You can see the trend.
I did not say I read about churn. I am highlighting that raising prices is not a magic answer to more profits, so consider it in you valuation model. Stick your contract prices up 14% and the customer will be motivated to seek a better deal, and the better deals are out there so the consumer does have choice.
I think it important to consider both sides and I just post my reasons not to invest.
They are for my own benefit to work out if I was right to switch out in 2018, and still not buy back in. Am I missing a good opportunity now? I don’t think so.
Let good debate enrich us all.
Real revenue down. Impact of contract rises on customer churn yet to appear. Plan to dilute share of UK market, the one Europe area that is growing. Low real cash flow (the one not fiddled with).
A list of 5 depressing dinosaurs to avoid for the bright future.
Only the announcement of the mine location and plan to submit for approval will generate real excitement now.
Drill results will cause a day traders pop that will drift back toward zero if no real plan surfaces. The real investors who can permanently move this have CGNR’s number. 20 years of watching it have done that.
Rob I hope of the stocks you hung in there with, PSN was one of them. The penny is dropping for dumb experts. Inflation heading down. Rates will follow.
Pound strengthening. No 50 degrees and wildfires to deal with.
Damn it’s good to British.
Just signed up for 2 years fast fibre for £17 a month, no landline needed
If VOD try to raise prices, consumers hard up or otherwise can easily find better deals in this market. Churn will be massive if they blindly raise by 14%.
They never say how much they are paying to rent the towers back.
Look, a squirrel!
In 12 months we'll be talking about how the FED, BOE, ECB overreacted, ignored the data and created the deflation environment we are dealing with.
At least VOD will recover a bit for you as interest rates come crashing down.
It’s not cheap if they are losing customers in Germany. Holding in the hope things get better is a gamble. Just be aware.
VOD could easily make the investment if they stopped wasting cash on divs. It’s up to the shareholders if they want to milk it now till it’s dry, or build for a future.
But it's also possible he is correct. VOD is not safe as houses.
So interest rate lolops on to 7%, the market demands a 5% risk excess for holding VOD so div yield needs to be 12%. VOD cut the div in half. SP is 33p.
It can happen. There is always risk. Not selling doesn't magically protect you from losing money. That's just a gamblers fallacy.
Both are big and worthwhile to society. Question is can VOD capitalise on a 5g boom without doing a VOD.