Member Info for mol42

Full agreement FriedmanSowell

mol

Not a lot once this was passed at the recent agm

To consider and, if thought fit, to pass the following resolutions as to the resolution numbered 5 as

an Ordinary Resolution and as to the resolutions numbered 6 as a Special Resolution:

5. THAT the Directors be and they are hereby authorised generally and unconditionally for the purposes of Section 551 of the Companies Act 2006 (the “Act”) to exercise all powers of the Company to allot shares in the Company or to grant rights to subscribe for, or to convert any security into, shares in the Company (such shares and/or rights being “Relevant Securities”) up to an aggregate nominal amount of £20,277.78 being one third of the current issued share capital, provided that this authority shall, unless renewed, varied or revoked by the Company, expire on the date being the earlier of the date 15 months after the passing of this Resolution and the conclusion of the Annual General Meeting of the Company to be held in 2025, save that the Company may, before such expiry, make offers or agreements which would or might require Relevant Securities to be allotted and the Directors may allot Relevant Securities in pursuance of such offer or agreement notwithstanding that the authority conferred by this Resolution has expired.

This authority shall be in substitution for and shall replace any existing authority

pursuant to Section 551 of the Act to the extent not utilised at the date this resolution is

passed.

I'm also very much in the not best pleased crowd esp as Steen actually said that a fundraise wasn't in mind in his recent presenation.

One crumb of comfort would be that said person has invested £1,226,400 of his own money albeit I agree at a generous discount

mol

Agree TheWigster

Excluding milestone payments received in H2 2023, reported revenues in H1 2024 will be ahead of H2 2023.

Revenue to 300623 £351,000

Revenue to 311223 £644,000

Difference £293,000 which includes the milestone payment so as you note just over £200,000 reported revenue for 6 months to 300624 - hardly a glowing endorsement of progress

mol

Receivables - of concern imo

Here's what was stated year end to 31 Dec 2023 audited statements when we had 203k sales receivables on turnover of 1673k

Management have regard to credit exposures when entering into new contracts and seek to agree settlement terms on all contracts.

Credit exposure is regularly monitored by management and any overdue debts are followed up as part of the group's credit control procedures.

Where a debt becomes significantly overdue, management have regard to credit loss provisions to reflect the existence of expected credit losses, taking account of forward looking information as well as the pattern of cash collections for that category of customer.

On 31 March 2022 as part of the common control transaction the group acquired £345k of credit‐impaired receivables against which full provision had been made prior to that date.

In the year to 31 December 2023 £125k of the debt was recovered and returned to Optibiotix Limited against the provision in their accounts. No additional credit loss provision has raised after having regard to cash collections on other receivables

There were no post balance sheet events.

Now we have (albeit no split between Sales and other) of 631k on 1006k

The Dec 2023 accounts were signed off on 28 June 2024 and presumably our Auditor reviewed transactions post year end and should have noted any concerns re post year end transactions - including anything post period not necessarily within 31 Dec year end accounts esp cashflow

mind i won't be placing, unfortunately, too much on aim audited financial statements - having regard to companies within the 100 and 250 indexes and their Auditor sign offs in the past - lol

mol

Oops Seed

6mths to

Jun24.....749k

Dec23.....658k

Jun23.....342k

which as we know has nowt really to do with Steen though thank goodness we have signed a new 5 year deal since his appointment

mol

Analysis

We have for full year

.......................12 mths...........9 mths

....................31 Dec 23.........31 Dec 22

UK......................65k.................43k

USA.................1008k..............934k

International....600k..............332k

Total................1673k............1309k

Of which Seed 1000k in 23 and 921k in 9 mths to 22

turning to 6 mth periods

................................................3Mths

........Jun 24........Jun 23.......Jun 22

UK.........14k..............28k............22k

USA.....749k............350k..........190k

INT.......243k............174k............90k

Total..1006k ...........552k..........302k

0f which Seed 749k and 342k and presumably most of the 190k

So in my view very disappointing UK sales ie falling and we had 426k international sales in 6 mths to Dec 23 so whilst Jun 24 from Jun23 looks encouraging - not so encouraging from 6 mths Dec 23 to 6mths Jun 24

and really other USA sales of not a lot (nil even to Jun 24)

just a few thoughts

mol

Https://probiotixhealth-ir.com/docs/probiotixhealthlibraries/archive/results/interims-2024.pdf

mol

And Stephen's robust (as usual) history lesson regarding what he has done and what he proposes

but i also repost this link as we have our shiraz's only - as far as i know - company's presentation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJksjSuroBA&t=46s

if you have an hour have a listen to over the weekend - can't remember if slides are/were available

and Stephen now refers to Shiraz as the effect!

I recall, at time, posting that his (SB) slides were basically out of a book and i awaited the improvement in our website, especially our online presence, but you can all make your own minds up re that

https://optibiotix.com/

and the "effect" since nov 2022

https://optibiotix.online/

nevermind the wait Stephen re your other forecasts/pronouncements within said presentation.............

mol

From update

The Company expects to announce its interim results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2024 during the second half of August 2024.

It was 27 Sep 2023 last time

mol

Hi martinu

There shouldn’t be anything to adjust from Mar 2022 however on reflection I took the 24,000 probiotic to be seed and deducted that from the USA turnover figure of 100,000 and now think that none of it is seed so the 2022 figure should be 100,000 in previous post

mol

As at 14 August 24

SBTX 24,940,639

PBX 53,533,333 (no change from listing Mar 2022)

just by way of note

(value c 4.6m at most at today's bid)

mol

As at 14 Aug 24

OptiBiotix Health Plc 24,940,639 11.03%

Tyndall Investment Management 18,357,826 8.12%

Seneca Partners Limited 14,228,283 6.29%

The University of Manchester 8,000,000 3.54%

Unicorn Asset Management 7,894,737 3.49%

David Brierwood 6,998,305 3.10%

Previously 10 April 24

OptiBiotix Health Plc 24,940,639 12.45%

Tyndall Investment Management 15,083,107 7.53%

Seneca Partners Limited 14,563,399 7.27%

The University of Manchester 8,000,000 3.99%

Unicorn Asset Management 7,894,737 3.94%

no change re Directors

mol

Exc Seed I make the turnover from USA as undernoted

2019........Nil

2020........£157,108 (this presumably includes 6 figure sum due from US company re sweetbiotix signed 15 Sep 2020)

2021........£100,000 (to include 6 figure sum due on anniversary)

2022..........£76,000 (this is strange as even at $100,000 (in all likelihood the 6 number figure but in $ and not £ as noted by RNS) at .8664 exc rate=£86,640)

2023.........£202,000 (to include 6 figure sum due on anniversary) which also presumably includes the £116,000 initial purchase by muscletech in late 2023 therefore leaving balance of £86,000 towards 6 figure sum ($100,000 at .8068 = £80,680) and the very impressive (not) then other USA sales of under £6,000

and as quoted in 20 Aug 2024 update

Muscletech continues to fill its distribution network in Europe with further orders for LeanBiome® anticipated in H2 2024

which underlines my view re launch in USA by muscletech but also that there have been no other purchases, as at 20 August, by them

Zak appointed on 01 March 2022 btw

just a bit of further anaysis and comment

cheers FriedmanSowell though I wouldn't go just as far as that - yet!

though the market does seem to have that view in general albeit we have been at an even lower SP middle of 2023 - hopefully we won't see that again

mol

Forecast May 2024 presentation

Assumptions:

1. No deterioration in global economic environment

2. Assumes no delays in launch timings

3. Investment in E-commerce channels and products continues to deliver strong growth

UK.... . £200,000

Asia.... £300,000

UAE.......£60,000

USA.......£60,000

Total Forecast £620,000

235% increase from 2023

we will see - china gummies alone was £10k per week at lower estimate equals £520k pa only c6 mths before

our Stephen was never any good at forecasts but I'd hoped with Graham on board things may have improved

mol

A review of announcements - just thought i'd have a look as our company's latest release sounded a bit ott (wouldn't be like us - would it? - lol)

01 Nov 2023

Our partner in China, Inready, have forecast sales of between 1,000-2,000 pouches per week for 2024 which, if achieved, would bring in revenues of £10k to £20k per week for gummy sales alone in China.

27 Feb 2024

Gummy supply and sales in China vary between £20,000 to £50,000 per month partially moderated by stock availability and the Chinese New Year. The Company intends to promote heavily on TikTok and Tmall in March and April 2024 with new stock and hope to have a clearer picture of likely regular monthly sales going forward after this period.

28 June final results

Gummy sales in China during the year varied widely per month, increasing rapidly in October and November with the aid of local key opinion leader influencers and new sales through the TikTok platform. Marketing on TikTok can increase sales rapidly but at a high cost and tend to be impulse buys with lower repeat purchases. Our TikTok account is managed by a Chinese agency with sales reconciled against costs some time after revenue is received. They are only then included in our

accounts. We see TikTok as a means of increasing product and brand awareness providing early sales growth with Tmall (Alibaba) a more appropriate platform for sustainable growth.

20 Aug 2024

The Company has made significant investments in new ecommerce channels, including Amazon in the UK, Walmart in the USA, and Tmall.com in China, to increase the proportion of our sales made direct to consumers. This has generated strong growth in turnover, with total ecommerce sales up approximately threefold in 2023 from 2022 and continued growth in Q1 2024 which we hope will continue as more channels come on line.

The Consumer Health division continues to grow rapidly during the year with sales to 30 June 2024 exceeding £200K, higher than the £185K achieved for the whole of 2023.  The biggest contributor to sales was China, with OptiBiotix online and Amazon UK making up the rest with a roughly equal split with a small contribution from Amazon UAE which launched late in H1 2024. The change from TikTok to Tmall reported in the annual accounts has led to less sales as expected, but at a much lower marketing cost.

The above are extracts and below is my opinion

The consumer health division (que? jees!) continues to grow rapidly - sales exceeding £200k - even at the lower £10k per week nov 23 announcement would mean £260k from china alone for gummies to six months to jun 24 and at one point varied between £20000 and £50000 per month - doesn't say much for our other product sales then!

It has neither grown rapidly nor anywhere enough to cover the costs of Shiraz and as for our business development manager...........

mol

Https://morepen.com/public/uploads/media/Morepen65f982b98b079.pdf

https://www.optibiotix-ir.com/content/news/archive/2024/130324

nowt as yet

https://www.morepen.com/dml

https://health.drmorepen.com/collections/shop

mol

Ripped - flying off the shelves - seemingly not

https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=muscletech&rh=n%3A65801031%2Cp_123%3A232507&dc&ds=v1%3AVDaOB%2FRkzT%2B4OwdEpokbX8UYRfWE8DAaW0NDgNDc%2Fd0&crid=VPUH3E9GHYKP&qid=1724437810&rnid=91049098031&sprefix=muscletech%2Caps%2C87&ref=sr_nr_p_123_1

you need to scroll down to find the two varieties

mol

Https://muscletech.co.uk/products/nitro-tech-ripped

ie including leanbiome

still not on muscletech.com apparently but can find easily under protein and nitro tech tabs

https://www.muscletech.com/products/nitro-tech-ripped?variant=39510084157536

which doesn't mention leanbiome - though product name is the same - would lead me to believe that leanbiome isn't going to be launced with muscletech in usa any time soon - if you search for leanbiome under muscletech.com nowt comes up

As previously noted Chocolate brownie and vanilla bean both available from feb 24 in uk albeit still with no reviews to date

https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=nitrotech+ripped+protein&ref=nb_sb_noss

just a bit of info

mol

Hi FriedmanSowell

martinu has more or less answered your question

I'm 100% convinced bearing in mind Steen's priorities which include distancing Optibiotix going forward (this objective is nearing a conclusion I think - albeit I can see Stephen continuing as a non-exec) and can see us still here in at least two years time unfortunately - we've been here over two already and Steen is only recently stamping his authority and implementiing his plans (including as we know increasing staff and thus overheads)

I haven't and don't plan to add any further shares here at the moment nor anytime soon

mol

Apologies DireCons - i wasn't clear and can see how you would raise your question

mol