Member Info for mogwhy

jaf - the trolls have been wrongfooted by the delays just like the rest of us.
There has been buying and selling.
Just because it's not obvious, doesn't mean it's not happening.
We've already had one self-declared troll who stated that "it was nothing personal, just business".

langtro, I suspect that Regua's output may be constrained by existing processing capability.
The delay to La Parrilla will probably have a knockon effect in starting up Regua.

Despite the relatively low APT prices in China, European trades are currently in the
$275 - $290 range. https://tinyurl.com/yxlb23kw
So $275 APT and current price of tin at $17,825 gives revenue of $53m a year at 200 tonnes/m.
That's EBITDA of roughly $25m next year if the 200 tonnes a month can be maintained.
No wonder the trolls are here for a piece of the action.

Lots of potential news in the next few months.

Q3 - Concentrator completion
Q3 - Gold JORC update
Q3 - Concentrator commissioned
Q3 - LP plant completion
Q3 - Increase in employment level to 200 full time.
Q3 - Ramp up to full production
Q3 - Tarouca exploration licence renewal
Q3 - Regua FID
Q3 - Sao Martinho trial mine licence granted
Q3 - Production & sales update
Q3 - WRES announces cash flow positive
Q4 - Audit for compliance of 5.3m grant conditions
Q4 - Transfer of old concentrator to Regua
Q4 - Regua ore mining contract
Q4 - Regua JORC update
Q4 - Regua concentrator commissioned
Q4 - Regua production starts
Q4 - Greenfield acquisition
Q4 - EIA approval for T3.5
Q4 - 5.3m grant paid
Q4 - La Parrilla 200 tonnes per month production achieved
Q4 - Sao Martinho trial mining starts

Roskill View
Tungsten market conditions have been more challenging in 2019, following a robust period of growth in 2017 and 2018, as a result of falling Chinese automotive production – impacting demand for key tungsten-containing tools – plus uncertainty around the US-China trade dispute and concern over Chinese tungsten stockpiles from the failed Fanya exchange. Longer term prospects for the sector are strong, however, with key end-use markets all poised to increase consumption. With tungsten supply from existing tungsten mines set to fall back over the next decade, Roskill forecasts that at least 10 new large-scale tungsten mines will be required over this period in order to meet demand.

Devil appears unable to be able to read English, so perhaps it's not his first language.
50% of the second years interest is payable in cash, but this is not due to be paid in 2019 due to the 2 year non-call period.

With a E5.3m grant inbound and no debt repayments needed to made to BlackRock this year, Tungder's prediction looks rather silly.
Although WRES haven't revealed an APT breakeven price for the project, it's likely to be less than $150 based on similar projects out there.

The $94/mtu opex actually includes a 15% contingency or $12/mtu.
So best case opex is $82/mtu.
Then there's the tourmaline credits to factor in at some stage.

Tungsten outlook https://bit.ly/2LkYIzV

Remember folks, trolls and derampers only spend their time on companys with excellent prospects.
Their attempts to depress sentiment here is to prolong the accumulation period which we are currently in. This allows them or their employer to quietly load up in small amounts without affecting the share price. The recent increasingly desperate attempts to deramp are an indication that they have nearly finished.
I still think that RealRealist is amongst us and we all remember how he signed off.

With both La Parrilla and Regua producing a total of 4,000 tonnes of concentrate, that will produce annual revenue of $73m.
That's for a $250 APT price for 88.5% concentrate and $19k tin price.
That should result in EBITDA of over $35m.
Next stage will be T3.5.
The traders can keep their 0.52 target price. I'll wait for the real rewards.

JTS13 - gold JORC could be anything. I'm not too bothered what it is, as long as the resource remains open in all directions for future expansion.
Regua FID date has not been revised but it would make sense to get the update first.
I would expect some sort of guidance from the company about production progress in Q3, even if it doesn't come with any hard numbers.
Sao Martinho trial mining should be relatively cheap as it's at surface.
It should just mean digging a hole to get some dirt for metallurgy work.

Grant audit added as well.

Q3 - Concentrator completion
Q3 - Gold JORC update to circa 400,000oz
Q3 - Concentrator commissioned
Q3 - LP plant completion
Q3 - Increase in employment level to 200 full time.
Q3 - Ramp up to full production
Q3 - Tarouca exploration licence renewal
Q3 - Regua FID
Q3 - Sao Martinho trial mine licence granted
Q3 - Production & sales update
Q3 - WRES announces cash flow positive
Q4 - Audit for compliance of 5.3m grant conditions
Q4 - Transfer of old concentrator to Regua
Q4 - Regua ore mining contract
Q4 - Regua JORC update
Q4 - Regua concentrator commissioned
Q4 - Regua production starts
Q4 - Greenfield acquisition
Q4 - EIA approval for T3.5
Q4 - 5.3m grant paid
Q4 - La Parrilla 200 tonnes per month production achieved
Q4 - Sao Martinho trial mining starts

A reminder of the potential newsflow over the next few months.
As an investor, everything looks good to me.

Q3 - Concentrator completion
Q3 - Gold JORC update to circa 400,000oz
Q3 - Concentrator commissioned
Q3 - LP plant completion
Q3 - Ramp up to full production
Q3 - Tarouca exploration licence renewal
Q3 - Regua FID
Q3 - Sao Martinho trial mine licence granted
Q3 - Production & sales update
Q3 - WRES announces cash flow positive
Q4 - Transfer of old concentrator to Regua
Q4 - Regua ore mining contract
Q4 - Regua JORC update
Q4 - Regua concentrator commissioned
Q4 - Regua production starts
Q4 - Greenfield acquisition
Q4 - EIA approval for T3.5
Q4 - 5.3m grant paid
Q4 - La Parrilla 200 tonnes per month production achieved
Q4 - Sao Martinho trial mining starts

L200 - our product is 66% tungsten concentrate, not 88.5%.

The 20% "discount" that has been mentioned before is the price difference between two different products. The going rate for our product is 80% of the European APT price for 88% concentrate.

Starter, the $230 price that has been quoted is for a different product.
We sell our product for the going rate.

Devil, if you'd read my post you would see why I know they are not discounted.
If you don't believe MM, then so be it.

Starter - MM has told us that they don't get a discount on market price of our product.
So there's unlikely to be a floor price.

Thanks, got it now.

Ok, but that's a Chinese price quote.
I'll wait for the next European price update before I adjust my model.
As I've said before, I don't follow short term variations.
It's a good job we're going to be one of the lowest cost tungsten producers.
We should be profitable through the whole cycle, unlike a lot of others.