Member Info for mogwhy

Slight increase in European APT prices.
"Prices indicated at $210-225 per mtu in Europe"

https://tinyurl.com/yxlb23kw

The cost of an RNS depends on its length and complexity.
A short one for a news update would cost about £150.

L200, I don't think anyone has said that current prices will generate $180m ebitda.
I listed the 6 years of APT prices for you yesterday that the company say will generate $180m.

JTS13, I use $110 opex because I strip out the tin credit of $16.
This gives a more accurate revenue forcast as I can then use the current tin price to calculate tin revenue rather than a fixed opex credit.

L200, I don't understand what point you're trying to make.
Future projections of revenue and ebitda are just that, projections (guesses) based on what the future price of APT and tin might be.
At current prices of $200/mtu for APT and $17,790 for tin, that makes WRES a profitable company with the ability to pay off the debt based only on the La Parrilla project at 200 tonnes per month. Those numbers should generate $1m ebitda per month, hopefully by November.
You have to make your own investment decision based partly on your view of future commodity prices and timescale.
I'm not concerned with the short term. I'm here for when WRES is a mid-tier miner producing over 5,000 tones of concentrate at whatever the APT price is at the time. I've made my bet that APT will on average be higher than it is now and the company along with the industry analysts agree.

Another, longer interview.
https://tinyurl.com/y69or3kx

L200, from the June presentation, for the first 6 years of production the following APT prices were used - 245, 263, 288, 313, 313, 313.
That generates around $178m EBITDA.

oldie - from the last RNS update "Commissioning set to commence in mid-July following installation of the Motor Control Centre ("MCC")".
Throughput with the new concentrator will start in August and build up to the 200 tonnes per month target over the following months.

Troaj - lots of potential at Regua.
"The Régua deposit remains open at depth and on all sides"

FID

https://tinyurl.com/ybft5ec5

jaf, there is a coarse breakdown of opex on page 4 of the FID.

jaf - which components of the opex do think wres may not be able to achieve ?
Or is it a general concern.

It'll be interesting to see how the Regua schedule plays out.
Will they use the grant money to pay for the capex?
If so, then it looks likely that production won't start until Q2/Q3 2020.
I can't see them doing a cash raise at this stage to fund it.
My guess is that when they refinance the BlackRock loan, it'll get added to that.
The Caja Rural de Extremadura bank must be favourite to provide this finance.

Cabby30 - lots of potential news due over the next few months.

Q3 - Concentrator completion
Q3 - Gold JORC update
Q3 - Concentrator commissioned
Q3 - LP plant completion
Q3 - Increase in employment level to 200 full time.
Q3 - Ramp up to full production
Q3 - Tarouca exploration licence renewal
Q3 - Regua FID
Q3 - Sao Martinho trial mine licence granted
Q3 - Production & sales update
Q3 - WRES announces cash flow positive
Q4 - Audit for compliance of 5.3m grant conditions
Q4 - Transfer of old concentrator to Regua
Q4 - Regua ore mining contract
Q4 - Regua JORC update
Q4 - Regua concentrator commissioned
Q4 - Regua production starts
Q4 - Greenfield acquisition
Q4 - EIA approval for T3.5
Q4 - 5.3m grant paid
Q4 - La Parrilla 200 tonnes per month production achieved
Q4 - Sao Martinho trial mining starts

K3VMC, just for you lol.

K3VMC Premium Member

Posts: 13,729

RE: Langtro19 Mar '19
Ok mogwhy. Please explain the difference to me.

mogwhy

Posts: 749

RE: Langtro19 Mar '19
K3VMC - you don't seem to understand that $36m revenue is not the same as $36m ebitda

jaf, that's a good example, but you've failed to take into account that in July 2018, K3VMC didn't know the difference between revenue and EBITDA !
His education has now been improved and we shouldn't see any more of these schoolboy errors.
If I put the July 2018 market prices into my model, I get exactly $40m EBITDA for a full years production. At that time though, the concentrator was due to be finished in Q1 2019, so a full years production wasn't possible for 2019.

jaf, can you supply an example of someone quoting an unachievable figure please.

Troaj, that would be the Fanya metal exchange, which is suspected to have been offloading its tungsten stocks this year.
So you are quite right, that is the probable reason for the low China APT price.

jaf, I don't recall any "over-hyped high potential EBITDA figures" on here.
We see figures based on the design output of the La Parrilla plant,
expected opex provided by the company and market prices of product.
The 2 trolls come on here and provide no explanation of why they expect the company to not achieve its objectives.
One of the reasons I invested in the company was the low level of opex.
This will make it profitable through the whole commodity cycle over the long term.
Another reason was the low technical risk. We will be using state of the art processing techniques on a well understood scheelite ore, unlike the train wreck that was WLFE.

jaf - I suspect you are referring to the "rampers" who put forth possible revenue and EBITDA figures.
These are just simple if/then scenarios of the company's possible future financial health.
It's part of the investment decision process.
I always base my figures on current market prices of APT and tin and opex of $110/mtu.
You are free to put forward your own expectations if you wish.