Member Info for mogo

gold is slightly down see www.kitco.com Also US 10 year bonds are important... up to 2.94% after a fall. Next week the Fed. whose balance sheet will soon show $4 trillion in trying to rescue the US economy lol,will probably do a bit of tapering.Will it work ? Gold should be a good investment longer term as it always has been for 5,000 years no matter what shenanigans happen now.GL

until I re -enter OMI,AVM and several others KGI is my only gold share now.There will be shenanigans coming up-tapering on unconvincing figures,the fiscal cliff mid-October and who knows -on Syria,Obama has maybe found a let-out ? Though as always the weak suffer in any case... Chart-there is support above 250p and 220p-230p.Resistance 300p to 330p.GL

GL you held this all through the dark times..

I'll be back..GL

one of the odd ones out-I sold here for my 2nd good profit this year in this share.It's never wrong to take a profit and I need that after many downs.Of course now it will go much higher as it always does after I sell hahaha,far more likely now lol! I also used these profits to mop up AVM losses by selling there.I'm still in KGI and still quite interested in gold shares.Next week we might have the tapering after weak figures and the Fed. spending up to $4 trillion a report said..no idea where gold is going shorter term but it remain as it has for over 5,000 years as a good investment.

when I saw the excellent OMI results I decided to "sell on the news".A while ago I decided to act that way after bad mistakes with some others in that scenario..RRR,AFE etc..I got a nice profit which also allowed the sale of AVM to mop up those losses.That leaves me only with KGI where I entered on a surge a few months ago...I'll remain interested in gold prospects.At least now I'm not "up to the hilt" as you said.GL

-thanks for that.Deciding a portfolio is very difficult.Gold shares have not been too bad for thousands of years if they had them then lol.Gold is insurance against any bad vibes coming up.Possibly there might be no Syrianesque bonus for gold,and maybe a bit of tapering coming up.About $4 trillion for the Fed. balance sheet is said to be the rough figure getting to this "recovery"..Last week IC mag. said gold was to fall while the FTSE100 would go over 7,000 to a record,they haven't always been good at forecasting..looking at a chart it seems convincing the FTSE100 top was reached on 22 May at 6,803,looks like an H&S formation has been forming around that peak ? The chart since 1997 appears to suggest that was the 3rd great peak from those in 2000 and 2007.And might be due to get down to the 3,600 plus band by 2015 ? So not looking at any FTSE100 shares for a while...GL

there's now talk of non goldminers getting into a bull market,they have missed out since 2010-11 so it might be..the charts of some look better now. We might be able to regain any gold losses there if we need to ? China will help and now Australian mining tax is to be removed.

researching this,there are obviously several things against gold now- 1. rumours the vote will be lost in the US.Obama has got himself in a corner in that.What does he do ? 2. even if tapering is to be a disaster as it might be as UE isn't really being solved,the fact it is going ahead should hit gold.Longer term I feel gold will do very well.But when ? 3. bond yields down more at 2.90% now.Unusual behaviour.It should rise. 4. how would many gold miners do at below $1300 ? They'll need a lot of cutbacks though many have done so after finding all in costs were about $1300 and getting impairments-not KGI but the sector will decide much more than one company. I think keeping a good amount in gold is ok,but not too much till we see how things are.Goldminers are still well down,doubt if there'd be much more,as that would take them even below the shocking 2008 levels now.I'd still rather be in goldminers than most FTSE100 shares at tops.GL

yes a good RNS there..also gold holding in the 1380's..less convincing UE figures showing up loss of workers rather than gain of jobs..they should be targeting number employed not the UE rate...and many jobs are part time.The Fed. need to do the trick of paying off debts at higher bond interest rates,now latest being 2.92% 10 years slightly down..GL

thanks for reply..in this weekends' IC Magazine they several times say gold won't do well up to the next year..the assumption appears to be tapering will happen and be a success with a recovery too.One report says the FTSE100 will go over 7,000-a record.In the FT News it says that the US 10 year bonds went over 3% last week for a short time though down at the 2.90's now..there are suggestions the Fed. might somehow fix these bondinterest rates rises..Several countries-India,Turkey,Brazil now doing badly with currencies.. only reporting what I read .Yes ignoring all that,goldmining shares have good looking charts with a small recovery so far only in the foothills of past efforts.If they even went back to early summer levels or lower that potential would still be there.Meanwhile general markets have dropped about 5% from a peak.Growth there cannot go on for ever.Looking at a chart of the FTSE100 or S&P over 10 years there is a convincing pattern-3 big peaks this one could be ready to fall again by about a half.We do need to find burst bubbles to invest in a la Buffett,that's what he does all the time. GL

REIT not REIS

another nugget from Market Oracle-the Market Vectors REIS Real estate ETF is MORT.Which is down badly this year.From charts the drop is 29.9 to 23.3 minus 21% more than one fifth then,since April.The "property boom" is one thing on which the "recovery" depends ans thence QE tapering and gold depend...GL

You've pointed out the longer term benefits here. The record top a few years ago was £12.87! The May/June warnings about tapering showed bond yields were the weak spot in this.Housing and auto booms might potentially be hit by rising interest rates causing UE and harder to pay off debt as a fiscal cliff approaches mid October which is then according to the US Treasury Sec. recently.The latest COT see below ,won't ref. due to (c) is again not good for gold with commercials shorting- usually the best indicator -while large investors- often wrong -go long.US 10yr.Bond yields up a bit again after the dip, to 2.93%..the significant 3% still hasn't gone.On Kitco(c) a nugget the US labour force participation rate is now the lowest since 1978,some figures are getting better not because people are getting jobs but they are leaving the jobs market! So is this improvement based on hot air ?.GL

I still think Jib might win this.Sorry JT after all your good work to be last.Though BP can come up with any Syrianesque moves-it often reaches over 700p in these situations,the 400's being quite low and oil was over $115/barrel last week ? Seeking Alpha is saying refiners should do well.At least my PAF and RRR are recovering having been rockbottom for most of the year.LRL could double given any good drilling report soon.Note AFF will decide on the 16th if they go ahead with the T/O which would give me a fixed 80p/share-not taking anything else as it would be outside our year.GL

no I use lots of indicators -bond yields were down later to 2.91% possibly the not so good UE figures today did that ? I'd guess QE tapering might be less than expected but would still happen.Gold went back up.GL

my interest now is with COT Reports-have you heard of those ? Committment of Traders,published each 3.30 Fridays EST time- in the evening UK time and reporting up to the previous Tuesday.So one is due later today.It gives positions of Large Investors,Commercial Investors and Small Traders in futures and options plus the totals.An article says Large Investors follow the "trend" as their positions are harder to exit while Commercials tend to go contrarian having less money.So Large Investors can fail to spot trends quickly enough,for us paying attention to what Commercials say is good therefore.Small Traders are far less in size of course and might lack hot information.See- http://news.goldseek.com.COT I'll give you a bit about the latest to date for 30.8.13->>>Commercials(often correct) are saying short gold while Large Investors and Small investors say long gold.That isn't good for gold. Personally I think medium term this might change as bond yields are coming upwards, and Syria is unsolved, and the fiscal cliff approaching,though shorter term yes the first almost certain (?) Fed. QE cuts in 10 days should depress gold.However this is always a longer game.GL

rates on the US Treasuries could be broken within a day easily now..which will be a worry for QE/not QE..either way gold wins.

-interest rates,a similar trend is setting off now as in May /June when after a fall gold got boosted.The US 10 year bond rates are now up at 2.99% highest this year which could mess up housing and autos,big employers...Above all it will be more difficult to pay off the huge debts coming up to the new fiscal cliff in mid October-it will be then according to the US Treasury Sec.

Really ? Well as usual I can't get below 4th.And the strongest act always holds up the rest lol.