Member Info for mogli4479

OK, I’ll split it by commodities:
PGMS:
20/21 £62m based on 55k production and a basket price 25% increase on H1
21/22 85m based on 68k production - but of guesswork involved here
Same for 22/23 and 23/24
COPPER:
20/21 6m
21/22 16m based on 4800 t. In order to establish JV profit before Sable takes over I have assumed $1,000 processing costs pt. We have been told of Sable’s expected GM %
22/23 33m based on 10k
23/24 84m based on 25k
CHROME:
20/21 6m based on 600k t @ $20 earnings pt
21/22 10m guess based on increase to production
22/23 10m
23/24 10m
ADMIN costs:
13k for this year rising to 20k for 23/24 based on inevitable increase in staff and depreciation costs
TAX: 28% of profits. I know we have some deferred tax allowances left over but I’m sure they will get eaten pretty quickly!
Like I wrote before, lots of assumptions and admittedly a prudent forecast, but one I feel comfortable with and can adapt as and when we learn more about the up and coming projects

I have the following as my prudent earnings estimates for the future. I haven’t included anything for Cobalt/Zinc/lead/vanadium but have included ever increasing admin costs and tax (28% of profits)
20/21 £45m
21/22 £69m
22/23 £80m
23/24 £114m
Happy to explain my workings in more detail if anyone is interested

I always use this one to calculate basket price etc.. It's not as bullish as the metals daily price and , I think, a more accurate reflection of actuals:
https://www.kitco.com/charts/rhodium.html

According to the 2 results we have received so far in the 20/21 year:
Q1 jul-Sep 136t of Chrome = earnings £1.257m
H1 Jul-Dec 320t of Chrome = earnings £1.005m
So, on the face of it Oct-Dec resulted in a loss of earnings of around 1/4m

Exactly, and Leon’s reference just confirms the conclusions on this BB
Who knows what the costs will be and exactly how much will be extracted but one thing’s for certain is that the earnings are thought to be significant enough for it to be mentioned alongside Copper in the latest narrative

Anyone else notice Leon refer the Copper projects as ‘Copper and Cobalt’ now?
I looked back on the various RNS when these deals were announced and the rhetoric then was just ‘Copper.’
Good times await

Just found the table that I was referring to below. It was in the WH Ireland note released on 8th July 2020, page 7 Table 4.
It details the average split of the 6E metals and % of Smelter price
It can be found on Jubilee's website under Investor relations/Broker notes. The link is below, if it copies correctly.
https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FN-JLP-080720.pdf

I did manage to find some info on either a broker note or presentation a while back, this split the PGMs and also gave an indication of what the concentrate price was as a % of the quoted price
I’m not in a position to find this info at the moment but if you search on my posts (there’s not many!) I think I’ve posted the info before

Rag, yes agree with that.
I was referring to actual incremental increases, rather than % increases. i.e. a $10 increase in Platinum is much more beneficial than a $10 increase in Rhodium.
Generally speaking a $10 increase in Platinum is the equivalent to a $25 increase in Palladium and $50 in Rhodium.

Rag, Rhodium has a 'huge weighting' of the basket price due to its high valuation, not because of the % split in the PGM.
Any incremental price in Platinum is much more welcome than the same incremental price of Rhodium and/or Palladium.

They obviously built the new website and employed the new personnel before any possible knowledge of FDA clearance.
So the question is why go live with the website and then take it down all of a sudden.
Maybe it simply wasn't working properly and they have taken it down for maintenance.
I would love to believe it's linked to FDA news but I'm not convinced.

Just been trying to establish what % we own of Belluscura and what their most recent valuation would be. The TEK website doesn't appear helpful but going from a few of this year's RNS releases I have come to the following conclusions:

Before 1st May we owned 18.9% of Belluscura
On 1st May we invested a further $225k and the overall company was valued at $9m

We have options to buy warrants for 15p at 1 for 2 of the recent purchase (so costing $225k/2)
and then within 30 days of FDA clearance we have the option to buy another $1m worth at a price no more than 23p

So all this means (if I've calculated it correctly) that if we take up all our options/warrants we will have 30% of the share capital.
Also with the option of 23p max one would assume that the expected valuation on FDA clearance would exceed this and so should be greater than $13.8m...how much greater though!!??

Jonah, I tried to calculate this a few days back and had $1,923 as a basket price and then $1,557 as a smelter price (i.e. what we are paid)

In terms of the 3 month delay, I'm lead to believe that the price we are paid reflects the current market price. For example if we sold concentrate in March, we would be paid in June at whatever the price was in June.

If you have a look at SLP accounts (much more detailed and informative) you can see this clearly as a sales adjustment coming in for one 1/4 where the price has changed dramatically from the previous one.

That's my 'go to' reference for whenever I want to calculate the price we actually receive.

I think this is the first time we have ever been told the full breakdown of PGMs and the % split on the concentrates.

I think this is the first time I have heard such clarity on the PGM splits:
Palladium 35% and Rhodium 11-13%
Assuming gold is 3% and Platinum the remainder then current basket prices are circ $2,700
He mentions $1,700 an ounce though...although this would have roughly been the price around 31/12/19

I know we dont receive the PGM basket price, but this still paints a very nice picture for our PGMs....and that's coming from someone who is naturally prudent with these calculations.

Edzi, If you're comparing 2019 results to H1 2020 then you also need to take into account the operating expenses (overheads and depreciation) of £8m. So, assuming another £8m for this year then the comparison is £10m last year (7m less £5m exceptionals + £8m ohds/depn) v £8m for H1 this year. Or £2m last year v £4m H1 this year.

One would assume that Eland's cut is reflected in our earnings £, and not the production quantity.

It would be so easy for them to produce a monthly table of production, revenue, costs and earnings for both the operations.
That way we wouldn't be wasting our time trying to work things out for ourselves the whole time

It was part of the year end results notification on 14 Nov, under the heading 'HIGHLIGHTS POST THE PERIOD UNDER REVIEW'

Looking at the RNS it does state quite clearly that Windsor produced 5,337 ounces in September, which, as you say, doesn't stack up to the 21k total for the period.

The below is an extract from the ye RNS
"This jump in earnings reflects only one full month of production at the Windsor PGM Operations, which commenced operations in late August 2019 and exceeded expectations by delivering 5 337 PGM ounces for the month of September 2019 alone, which is more than double that of the PGM ounces produced from the Inyoni Operations"

Sorry, my £23m should read £27.8m on 72,000 ounces, the £23m would be for the original assumption of 60,000 oucnes