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Exactly, and Leon’s reference just confirms the conclusions on this BB
Who knows what the costs will be and exactly how much will be extracted but one thing’s for certain is that the earnings are thought to be significant enough for it to be mentioned alongside Copper in the latest narrative
Just found the table that I was referring to below. It was in the WH Ireland note released on 8th July 2020, page 7 Table 4.
It details the average split of the 6E metals and % of Smelter price
It can be found on Jubilee's website under Investor relations/Broker notes. The link is below, if it copies correctly.
https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FN-JLP-080720.pdf
I did manage to find some info on either a broker note or presentation a while back, this split the PGMs and also gave an indication of what the concentrate price was as a % of the quoted price
I’m not in a position to find this info at the moment but if you search on my posts (there’s not many!) I think I’ve posted the info before
Rag, yes agree with that.
I was referring to actual incremental increases, rather than % increases. i.e. a $10 increase in Platinum is much more beneficial than a $10 increase in Rhodium.
Generally speaking a $10 increase in Platinum is the equivalent to a $25 increase in Palladium and $50 in Rhodium.
Rag, Rhodium has a 'huge weighting' of the basket price due to its high valuation, not because of the % split in the PGM.
Any incremental price in Platinum is much more welcome than the same incremental price of Rhodium and/or Palladium.
They obviously built the new website and employed the new personnel before any possible knowledge of FDA clearance.
So the question is why go live with the website and then take it down all of a sudden.
Maybe it simply wasn't working properly and they have taken it down for maintenance.
I would love to believe it's linked to FDA news but I'm not convinced.
Just been trying to establish what % we own of Belluscura and what their most recent valuation would be. The TEK website doesn't appear helpful but going from a few of this year's RNS releases I have come to the following conclusions:
Before 1st May we owned 18.9% of Belluscura
On 1st May we invested a further $225k and the overall company was valued at $9m
We have options to buy warrants for 15p at 1 for 2 of the recent purchase (so costing $225k/2)
and then within 30 days of FDA clearance we have the option to buy another $1m worth at a price no more than 23p
So all this means (if I've calculated it correctly) that if we take up all our options/warrants we will have 30% of the share capital.
Also with the option of 23p max one would assume that the expected valuation on FDA clearance would exceed this and so should be greater than $13.8m...how much greater though!!??
Jonah, I tried to calculate this a few days back and had $1,923 as a basket price and then $1,557 as a smelter price (i.e. what we are paid)
In terms of the 3 month delay, I'm lead to believe that the price we are paid reflects the current market price. For example if we sold concentrate in March, we would be paid in June at whatever the price was in June.
If you have a look at SLP accounts (much more detailed and informative) you can see this clearly as a sales adjustment coming in for one 1/4 where the price has changed dramatically from the previous one.
I think this is the first time I have heard such clarity on the PGM splits:
Palladium 35% and Rhodium 11-13%
Assuming gold is 3% and Platinum the remainder then current basket prices are circ $2,700
He mentions $1,700 an ounce though...although this would have roughly been the price around 31/12/19
I know we dont receive the PGM basket price, but this still paints a very nice picture for our PGMs....and that's coming from someone who is naturally prudent with these calculations.
Edzi, If you're comparing 2019 results to H1 2020 then you also need to take into account the operating expenses (overheads and depreciation) of £8m. So, assuming another £8m for this year then the comparison is £10m last year (7m less £5m exceptionals + £8m ohds/depn) v £8m for H1 this year. Or £2m last year v £4m H1 this year.
One would assume that Eland's cut is reflected in our earnings £, and not the production quantity.
It would be so easy for them to produce a monthly table of production, revenue, costs and earnings for both the operations.
That way we wouldn't be wasting our time trying to work things out for ourselves the whole time
Looking at the RNS it does state quite clearly that Windsor produced 5,337 ounces in September, which, as you say, doesn't stack up to the 21k total for the period.
The below is an extract from the ye RNS
"This jump in earnings reflects only one full month of production at the Windsor PGM Operations, which commenced operations in late August 2019 and exceeded expectations by delivering 5 337 PGM ounces for the month of September 2019 alone, which is more than double that of the PGM ounces produced from the Inyoni Operations"
Yes aw, I came up with a similar answer.
Our profit on 21,082 ounces was £8.129m, therefore profit on 72,000 (they mention the possibility of 6,000 a month) would be £23m
However a couple of things will affect this:
1. What the PGM prices werer for the 1st 6m comapred to what they are now. This should increase the profit forecast
2. What split the H1 prodcution figures are for Hernic and Windsor. As we know the profit from the latter will be a lower % than the former. This would probably decrease the forecast, as the Hernic % would be higher in H1 than it is likely to be in the future.
I agree with that. We are all just having educated guesses as the data has always been hard to come by with JLP. When we get the 6m update all we will be able to work out is the revenue per ounce for the entire period - we wont know when or how the price was determined.
Yes that's correct TC and that's why the % I've applied relates to our actual revenue, not our profit, so ignores any of the costs.
What I've tried to do is compare our actual revenue to the basket price back in Q418 and assume the same % on today's basket price.
Basically the price we receive for our concentrates is quite a bit below the basket price, which is the main reason we wont see the increase in profits that some our predicting.
There seems to be high expectations that the recent increase in the PGM prices will dramatically increase our bottom line - although this is mainly on the ADVN site than here.
Looking back to Q4 2018 we received around £600 an ounce when the PGM price (assuming Merensky % split) was $1,184. The PGM price today, using the same split, is $1,616 which is a 36% increase on Q42018.
Applying the same % increase to our £600 per ounce gives us an extra £219 per ounce, which equates to an extra £6.57m to the bottom line.
I'll admit there's a few assumptions built into the above and extra £6-£7m to the EBITDA is not to be sniffed at, but I think some are getting carried away thinking in will be an extra £20m+
I haven't included Windsor as we simply dont know the split of our profits yet.