Member Info for mogli4479

Yes aw, I came up with a similar answer.
Our profit on 21,082 ounces was £8.129m, therefore profit on 72,000 (they mention the possibility of 6,000 a month) would be £23m
However a couple of things will affect this:
1. What the PGM prices werer for the 1st 6m comapred to what they are now. This should increase the profit forecast
2. What split the H1 prodcution figures are for Hernic and Windsor. As we know the profit from the latter will be a lower % than the former. This would probably decrease the forecast, as the Hernic % would be higher in H1 than it is likely to be in the future.

I agree with that. We are all just having educated guesses as the data has always been hard to come by with JLP. When we get the 6m update all we will be able to work out is the revenue per ounce for the entire period - we wont know when or how the price was determined.

Yes that's correct TC and that's why the % I've applied relates to our actual revenue, not our profit, so ignores any of the costs.
What I've tried to do is compare our actual revenue to the basket price back in Q418 and assume the same % on today's basket price.
Basically the price we receive for our concentrates is quite a bit below the basket price, which is the main reason we wont see the increase in profits that some our predicting.

There seems to be high expectations that the recent increase in the PGM prices will dramatically increase our bottom line - although this is mainly on the ADVN site than here.

Looking back to Q4 2018 we received around £600 an ounce when the PGM price (assuming Merensky % split) was $1,184. The PGM price today, using the same split, is $1,616 which is a 36% increase on Q42018.
Applying the same % increase to our £600 per ounce gives us an extra £219 per ounce, which equates to an extra £6.57m to the bottom line.
I'll admit there's a few assumptions built into the above and extra £6-£7m to the EBITDA is not to be sniffed at, but I think some are getting carried away thinking in will be an extra £20m+

I haven't included Windsor as we simply dont know the split of our profits yet.

% splits depend on the Reef. I found this info a while back:
Marensky - Plat 62% Pall 29% Rh 4% Gold 5%. Western and Eastern Limb
UG2 - Plat 53% Pall 36% Rh 10% Gold 1%. Western and Eastern Limb
Platreef - Plat 43% Pall 48% Rh 3% Gold 6%. Northern Limb

We're not talking about the accounts, but the earnings mentioned in the July-Sept 2019 period.

We know from Leon's interview that Inyoni earnings were £1.44m in September alone.
From the accounts today we know that total earnings in that period were £3.38m. So ignoring any Chrome earnings the totals for Inyoni for July and August and Windsor for July-Sept must be £1.94m.
Given the high PGMs produced at Windsor in September, I would have expected this to be higher.
It could be that our profit share split with Northan is not as high as expected.

Might have to wait until the next 6m operational update to fully unsderstand the financials.

I totally agree HTC, and was about to post something identical. Assuming July and August Inyoni earnings were in the region of £1m before the September ramp up then that presumably means the Windsor earning are pitiful in comparison, despite the number of PGMs!

190m Rand, back when it was sold, was the equivalent to $33m. Although there was more to the sale than just the processing facility.
It seems that Glencore put the mine on care and maintenance in 2014 due to a 'run in' with the Zambian government involving $200m of tax refunds that weren't forthcoming.

In one of the JLP RNS on Kabwe, it was mentioned that the initial processing would be 10,800t per month and the second and final stages would see 25,000 tpm processed!