Member Info for mmafr

For those who may have missed it, here's the latest tweet from PM :

"However, the peak of livestock mortality is expected to occur between late March and early April. We hope our donation will help the Matad herders protect their livelihoods #MATD"

Sorry, but that is too tempting now : lagueule --> ta gueule

@BP

I consider you to have been in the business long enough to know that there are always those who are more informed and profit from this knowledge.

What was that? Closed under relatively high volume... could it be that...?

Thank you for sharing this update, Mouse. It's really unfortunate to hear about the dissolution of the company due to the oversight regarding the annual returns. I understand that this marks a significant turning point, but I'm curious to know if this is absolutely the final end of the company. Is there any possibility of a revival or restructuring in the future, or is this the definitive conclusion?

Any further insights would be greatly appreciated.

BP,

"WOS - no one on here has said that the LP won't eventually be given. In that case production should follow (if the estimates for Heron are correct), so why is the granting of the LP not already factored into the SP? I think it probably is."

You can't be serious right now.... !!

Perhaps it would be appropriate to remind ourselves of the official statement from PM and avoid unnecessary speculation.

“The Ministry of Mining and the regulator MRPAM have said they would like us onstream by the end of this year, and will facilitate that and we would obviously like that too.”

“We really want Heron-1 onstream as a priority – as well as all the other exciting stuff. That’s the big target for 2023 – we really want to get that onstream, and we will announce it when we do.”

https://www.lse.co.uk/media/MATD/mongolian-oil-developer-petro-matad-hopes-heron-1-oil-discovery-is-onstream-by-year-end-bt1j8op09rc1uid.html

You must have noticed that we received a PR for V1 on Monday.... its unfortunately a duster.

This, of course, provides an explanation as to why the share price did not skyrocket and reach double-digit values despite the excellent press release last week. Apparently, some people were already aware of the results in advance. However, I find it inexcusable that the CEO did not release this press release already on Friday after the stock market closed, but instead waited until Monday before the market opened. This behaviour is hardly understandable and almost gives the impression that the CEO did this on purpose to allow some people the opportunity to buy in cheaply. Well, from now on, the share price should really only know one direction."

The fact that we didn't receive any PR regarding V1 after the stock market closed yesterday gives me hope that there are no negative news about it so far. Because typically, Friday after the market closes is the ideal time to release such negative PR. This means that at the moment, either there are no definitive results, or there are positive results that might be announced on Monday morning. There is still hope.

Could the sharp decline in stock price on high volume possibly indicate a leak in V1? I can't explain it otherwise, especially after yesterday's great PR. If that's the case, we should expect a press release either by the end of the trading day or on Monday morning. Nevertheless, PM's future looks more than promising since yesterday, and the main risk is definitely gone!

I would like to defend BP here. I believe that a healthy board culture always involves two sides: those who enthusiastically comment on every little thing and those who, for whatever reason, criticize everything to the extreme. BP, in any case, always writes with style and a certain level of sophistication, and I actually enjoy reading his contributions, even though I often disagree with them. But such postings also allow me to question my investments and view them critically from time to time, which I find extremely important. After all, there is always the option to block or ignore if someone sees things differently than I do.

I've been around long enough to have personally experienced all conceivable scenarios. A discovery of oil alone doesn't really say much. The oil also needs to be economically extractable, and that can only be determined through specific tests. These tests (flow rate) can be carried out after the complete drilling or during. Therefore, it's futile to speculate where the drilling bit is currently located and whether there has been a commercial oil discovery. We can only wait for the official PR with the final results.

PM has indeed nailed the timing this time. Just as announced in the PRs. This shows that PM is trustworthy and sticks to the things they announce when they are not dependent on third parties.

Exactly, there are certain rules in this field that do not allow for a higher quota. This was already discussed in detail by MB. In an unexplored oil field, you cannot expect a higher quota, even if the chance of success is far higher. Therefore, one should not focus too much on these 20%. Therefor, I rather see the chances at fifty-fifty.

If I understand this correctly, it seems that someone does not agree that AAOG should be dissolved... now, it would be interesting to know who this person is, what arguments he has against dissolution and what his motives are.

That is precisely the crux of the matter (and thanks to Dozzawba for this pertinent observation). Indeed, I can't imagine that MB would take on a drilling project from Velociraptor without having received assurances from the responsible Mongolian authorities that the LG for Heron will also be issued in a timely manner. So if Dozzawba is correct (which I assume he is), the LP should still be granted in the next 3-5 weeks. This would also fit in terms of timing if the only thing remaining for the administrative procedure is the signature of the responsible ministries (as suspected by some here). Therefore, the coming weeks are going to be very exciting.

@BP ,

Well, that's certainly a statement by which you will be measured.

Interesting, would this money now belong to AAOG or rather to ZEN (who took over the rights from AAOG). What is your opinion on this?

@Doc83,

Well, that's not entirely true. I have already invested in several oil stocks where this exact scenario occurred. A rumor spread in the boards, and as a result, the stock price rose disproportionately. This then prompted the FCA to take action, and the company had to issue a press release to dispel the rumors. So such a press release could (or rather should) indeed be published by the company if the rumors are false and the price has reacted excessively.