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What stands out to me in today’s update are the near‑term workstreams on Heron‑2, Gazelle‑1 and Gobi Bear‑1. These give the story real momentum and, importantly, a short runway to potentially very positive results:

- Heron‑2 acid re‑test: any meaningful uplift (or even an injector outcome) could improve field economics fast.

- Gazelle‑1 & Gobi Bear‑1 tests: near‑term shots at adding barrels in 2025 and de‑risking the wider play.

Combine these with ongoing cost cuts (grid tie‑in) and established payment flow, and you’ve got multiple catalysts lining up for H2. This is the part of the cycle where patience can pay. I’m especially focused on H2/Gazelle/Gobi.

Stability + catalysts = momentum. Heron‑1 is delivering steady barrels with low water cut, first revenues are in, and the remaining 30% holdback looks like a procedural tax sign‑off rather than a commercial issue. Management is pushing Opex down (grid tie‑in) and lining up near‑term upside: Heron‑2 acid re‑test in August, then Gazelle‑1 and Gobi Bear‑1 tests. Add an active farm‑out process now in final evaluation and you’ve got multiple shots on goal for H2.

For me, this reads as increasing visibility on cash, lower costs, and several imminent catalysts. I’m staying long for the next leg.

Today wasn’t just about the 19.5 million Retail‑Offer shares; in total ~375 million new shares ( ≈ 355 m Placing & Subscription + 19.5 m Retail ) were admitted to AIM at 0.8 p ◆

Investegate

Investegate

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The bears had been calling for a capitulation sell‑off, yet MATD spent the session flat‑to‑firm on routine volume.

Why that matters

Supply absorbed: Almost a quarter of the entire share count became tradeable overnight, and the market took it in stride.

New money staying put: Retail participants and the institutions behind the placing clearly aren’t flipping; they’re looking for the operational upside.

Sentiment intact: If the price can hold steady on admission day, it suggests a solid base ahead of the next catalyst.

Bottom line – the capital raise has strengthened the balance sheet without damaging confidence. The bashers’ “wall of stock” never materialised; instead we’ve got a tighter, more committed register ready for the news flow to come.

All the doom-and-gloom talk that “PetroChina will bleed PM dry and never pay” just met cold, hard reality: $1.18 million has hit the bank for the very first Block XX cargo. Yes, PetroChina has held back 30 %, but only until Mongolia’s tax office rubber-stamps what the PSC already states – no customs or VAT on this third-party processing. If PetroChina really wanted to starve Petro Matad, they could have delayed indefinitely; instead, they’ve paid the bulk up-front and shown they’re acting in good faith.

For Petro Matad this is huge:

Proof of concept: Oil has been produced, exported, invoiced and – crucially – paid for.

Cash in the door: Net $0.81 million after royalty and government take, with the May invoice already in the system.

Clear road-map: Once the Mongolian authorities issue formal guidance, the remaining 30 % and all future cargoes should be settled in full.

This payment knocks down the biggest remaining “what if?” and shows the commercial chain actually works. When the tax sign-off lands, the rest of the money follows – and with it, a powerful rerating case.

To me, today’s RNS is a reassuring milestone for every long-term holder. The market may take a moment to digest, but medium-term the share price should catch up with the new reality: Petro Matad is now a revenue-generating producer.

Congrats to everyone who kept the faith!

Yesterday’s RNS flags a new holdup: PetroChina has accepted all Heron-1 invoices, but won’t release the cash until Mongolia’s authorities formally confirm that no customs, VAT or other taxes apply under the Oil Sales Agreement .

Back on 13 March the company said it was “investigating arranging its own shipments and sale of Block XX crude in case of further delay.” 

So the obvious question is: Is that self-shipment option still on the table?

If the tax sign-off drags, direct export could break the log-jam and prove to the market that first oil really does mean first cash.

Thoughts? Has anyone heard whether PM is pushing this contingency forward?

@TenBagTag,

This is hands down the best thing I’ve read in this forum in a long time: 'Traders need to be right every day. Long-term holders just need to be right once.'

Today’s PR shows once again that Mike Buck has delivered—even if the final signature took a bit longer than we initially expected. What matters is that PM is steadily moving forward, step by step, building something significant.

The share price is always just a snapshot in time. I’m happy to leave the field to the short-term traders to play out their strategies. Personally, I’m here for the big move, and today’s announcement has once again confirmed to me that we’re firmly on the right path—for those who have patience.

With today’s news, the biggest hurdles are finally out of the way. From here on, I expect things to accelerate significantly. Congratulations to everyone who stayed strong through the ups and downs—our time is coming!

Doc83,

You're quoting Mike Buck selectively—let's look at the full context. MB explicitly confirmed at the AGM that the company currently has sufficient cash flow from Heron-1 production revenues, with around 25,000 barrels ready to sell imminently, generating strong netbacks. He clearly stated that a placement is not anticipated at present because operational expenses are fully covered.

The AGM motion to authorize additional shares is simply prudent planning and standard corporate practice—it doesn't mean dilution will actually happen. Buck explicitly highlighted that they're actively pursuing non-dilutive financing options and seeking JV partners to accelerate growth without dilution. He also emphasized he'd push strongly for a premium placement if ever required, indicating his commitment to protecting shareholder value.

Claiming an imminent placement is a misinterpretation. Let's stay factual and avoid unnecessary fearmongering.

To all those repeatedly warning about an imminent placement: The AGM clearly proved you wrong. CEO Mike Buck explicitly stated that Petro Matad is financially solid, thanks to rising production revenues from Heron-1 and sufficient cash reserves. He clearly emphasized that no share dilution or placement is anticipated as current cash flows already cover operational expenses. With oil sales revenues just around the corner, constant talk of dilution is simply unfounded and misleading. Time to focus on facts instead of spreading unnecessary fear!

My personal roundup of today's releases :

Petro Matad delivered excellent news today at their AGM, highlighting strong operational progress and an optimistic financial outlook. Heron-1, their flagship production well, has consistently produced high-quality, light oil with impressive flow rates, already exceeding 25,000 barrels in total with minimal water content.

The long-awaited sales agreement with neighboring Block XIX has now been approved and is expected to be signed imminently, unlocking significant revenue streams at highly favorable netbacks (around $43 per barrel net). CEO Mike Buck reassured investors by confirming that current production revenue and existing cash reserves are sufficient to cover ongoing operational needs, meaning no share dilution is anticipated.

Heron-2 has also encountered oil, confirming reservoir extension. Although initial flow rates were lower, further analysis is expected to optimize its performance—presenting clear upside potential.

The CEO reiterated that the priority for 2025 is to partner with a well-funded JV partner to accelerate drilling and production growth, which would further enhance revenues and shareholder value. In the meantime, the company remains financially robust, with low overheads and growing cash flow from current production.

Overall, the AGM signals a strong foundation for growth and profitability, making Petro Matad an exciting opportunity as revenues from imminent oil sales begin to flow, significantly improving their financial position without dilution to shareholders.

On March 10th, we saw a massive price jump of over 50%. Some are arguing that this was purely a technical breakout, but I strongly disagree—and here’s why :

A move of this magnitude would typically prompt the company to issue a PR addressing the surge. If the reason were purely technical, it would be easy for Petro Matad to clarify this in a statement and put speculation to rest. The fact that they haven’t done so suggests that there are deeper, more fundamental reasons behind this rally.

One theory that keeps surfacing is the possibility of a (partial) takeover, and I don’t think this can be dismissed outright. Additionally, let’s not forget that the long-awaited signature on the oil sales agreement, originally expected in February, still hasn’t been addressed by the company. This continued silence could indicate that there is something much bigger happening behind the scenes.

Just my two cents, but I believe there’s a strong fundamental reason for Petro Matad’s current quiet stance. Whatever it is, things are getting very interesting!

China and Mongolia have been deepening their energy cooperation, with China heavily investing in Mongolia’s energy sector. A recent declassified geological survey in China revealed massive thorium reserves, which could shape China’s long-term energy strategy by supporting future nuclear development. However, this transition will take years, and in the meantime, oil remains a crucial part of China’s energy mix—where Mongolia plays a key role as a supplier.

For Petro Matad, this is highly relevant. With China being the primary buyer of Mongolian oil and ongoing infrastructure developments like pipelines and refineries, the demand for Mongolian crude remains strong. As Petro Matad advances towards full-scale production and sales, this close energy partnership could work in its favor, securing stable demand and long-term growth opportunities.

https://visionias.in/current-affairs/news-today/2025-03-04/science-and-technology/a-declassified-geological-survey-in-china-reports-massive-thorium-reserves

@badprophet,

I understand your skepticism, but let’s look at the facts. In regulatory PRs, especially for a publicly listed company, statements like these are not made lightly. If there were major uncertainties, the wording would have been much more cautious.

The key point here is that the terms have already been agreed upon by all parties—the only thing left is the signature. That’s a strong indication that the deal is essentially done, just pending formalities. If there were serious doubts, MB would have likely framed this differently to avoid any credibility risk.

Of course, no timeline is ever 100% guaranteed, but considering how close we are to the end of February, it’s reasonable to expect confirmation very soon. The bigger picture remains: Petro Matad is on the verge of transitioning from an explorer to a revenue-generating company, which is the real game-changer here.

One key takeaway from the latest PR is this statement:

"The terms of the Cooperation Agreement have been agreed by the parties involved and it is now awaiting signature by the operator of Block XIX. This is expected in February after which sales revenue will commence."

For a CEO to make such a clear commitment in an official PR, there must be a high level of certainty that the signature is imminent. Publicly listed companies don’t make such forward-looking statements lightly, especially under strict regulatory oversight.

Now that February is nearly over, the signing should be a matter of days—not weeks. The fact that Petro Matad is already talking about sales revenue commencing right after the signature shows how close we are to this major milestone. Once confirmed, this will be a game-changer, marking the long-awaited transition from exploration to monetization.

Stay patient—big news could drop anytime!

Remember MB's statement: 'soon.' Key progress might be closer than expected!

Remember, in his latest interview, Mike Buck dropped a key statement that could mark a turning point for the company:

"I’m confident we’ll resolve the remaining details soon."

With the cooperation agreement nearly finalized, this could unlock the customs permit and finally start oil exports—and revenue generation!

Big steps ahead.

In summary Mike's statement on Heron 2 :

"Heron 2 was drilled just under a kilometer away from Heron 1, and the intention was to encounter the same reservoir and replicate the production performance we’ve seen at Heron 1. Based on the drilling and logging responses, everything initially looked promising and similar to what we observed at Heron 1. That gave us reason to believe we’d see comparable results during testing.

However, during the testing phase, the flow rate from Heron 2 was extremely low. The reservoir is behaving like a tight, low-permeability system, which is quite different from what we’ve seen at Heron 1. This inconsistency has been surprising. While we did manage to recover some oil from the well—about 30 barrels per day—the rate is marginally commercial, particularly in winter when additional heating is required to keep the oil warm.

That said, we’re not writing off Heron 2. We’ve collected pressure data and other key information during testing, and we’re now analyzing it to determine if the testing process itself may have caused the poor performance. There’s a possibility that operational factors, like incomplete perforation or damage during the testing phase, are contributing to the lower flow rate.

We’re considering several options to address this, such as reperforation, recompletion, or a clean-out operation. Alternatively, we may wait until warmer weather to reassess the well’s performance. The key question we’re trying to answer is whether this is a true reflection of the reservoir or simply a result of something that went wrong during testing.

At this point, it’s too early to make a definitive conclusion, but we’re committed to resolving the issue(!!!). We believe Heron 2 still has potential, and we’ll continue working on it over the coming months to unlock that potential."

I would strongly recommend everyone take the time to carefully listen to what Mike Buck said about Heron 2 in his recent interview. Initially, based on the official PR release, I was quite skeptical about whether Heron 2 could ever become a productive well. However, after hearing MB’s detailed explanation yesterday, my perspective has shifted significantly, and I am now far less doubtful.

From what MB described, it seems that the low flow rate observed at Heron 2 is more closely tied to issues with the drilling or testing process rather than being a direct result of the reservoir’s quality itself. While the reservoir in Heron 2 appears similar to that of Heron 1 based on logs and drilling data, the performance during testing fell short, leading to initial doubts. However, MB highlighted that there could be specific factors during the operation—such as potential damage or incomplete perforation—that have impacted the flow rates.

The encouraging part is that these types of issues are typically fixable without major effort or excessive cost. MB also outlined several next steps to address this, including analyzing the data, reperforating or recompleting the well, and potentially conducting clean-out operations. Furthermore, the possibility of revisiting the well in the warmer months could also provide better insights into its true potential.

Overall, while Heron 2 currently presents challenges, MB’s explanation suggests that the well’s underperformance may not reflect the reservoir’s actual capability. If addressed correctly, there is a real opportunity for Heron 2 to become productive, contributing positively to the broader development of the Heron field.

I actually see this kind of post as a strong signal for the potential of a stock. When someone resorts to publishing such nonsensical and partially incorrect statements in a forum, it’s hard not to see the desperation behind it. The post is so poorly written and riddled with inaccuracies that it borders on absurdity.

What this really tells me is that there are forces actively trying to push the price down at all costs, even resorting to deliberate misinformation. And what does that say about the stock? It’s a clear sign of the potential it holds. No one would go to such lengths if there weren’t something truly valuable here.

Instead of being deterred, posts like these reinforce my belief in the underlying strength of this company and the opportunities it represents. Attempts to mislead only highlight how much is at stake.

@Gusto1

You recently posted, 'Save your buying folks... This will go a lot lower.'

Right now, the share price is at 1.7p, well below its previous highs. But with limited room for further downside and considering Petro Matad's potential—especially with Heron-1 showing far more capacity than initially expected—there’s a significant opportunity here. The downside risk seems strongly limited, while the upside potential is wide open.