RICS survey highlights strong rental market14 Oct 2022 16:31
Today’s RICS housing market survey, in our view, paints a much brighter
picture of Watkin Jones’s rental sector than that in the sales market.
Surveyors expect strong growth in rents to continue, driven by strong
tenant demand and constricted supply. We believe that part of the reason
for the arguably excessive reaction of the share price to last week’s trading
update may be the weakness of the national housebuilders, but they
operate in the currently more challenged sales market.
? Stronger rental market data. The monthly RICS Residential Market Survey
is widely view as among the best leading indicators of trends in the sales
market. The quarterly lettings report, out this morning (see over), shows
that a +36% ‘balance’ of agents (% seeing a rise less those seeing a fall)
reported rising tenant demand in Q3. Meanwhile, new landlord
instructions continued their five-year-long decline. This widening
imbalance led to a +57% balance expecting rents to rise further over the
next three months. The monthly sales survey shows -36% and -18%
balances for the equivalents of buyer enquiries and price expectations.
? Higher funding costs. WJG’s share price has fallen by 47% since the 4
October FY22E trading update (see Strong rental market offset by margin
pressure), despite management buying over 72,000 shares the following
day (see Board’s share purchases highlight confidence). We reduced our
estimates due to pricing softness on sales in H2, with institutions facing
higher funding costs. Two forward sales that were planned to close in
September are now planned to transact in FY23E due to market volatility.
? Long-term rental demand offers land prospects. We believe that WJG’s
build-to-rent (BTR) and student accommodation markets offer long-term
growth opportunities, driven by the rising demand among tenants and the
attractive income characteristics for institutional investors of BTR,
highlighted in today’s RICS survey. The group’s £75m net cash could offer
major opportunities in a now possibly less competitive land market.
? Unique capital-light, low-risk model. WJG develops BTR, student and
urban regeneration assets, forward-funded by institutions, which in our
view reduces risk with low capital tie-up. The accommodation
management division has relatively sustainable revenues (page 4).
? Valuation. Following the steep fall in the shares, the cash-rich group is
trading at a FY23E PER of 5.1x and dividend yield of 9.9%.
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