RE: Mega RNS!5 Jun 2026 11:16
I agree that a broad valuation can be made today using Conrad's production profile, gas price assumptions, capex, opex, taxes, carry repayments and EME's 8.5% economic exposure. However, estimating the ultimate value accruing to EME shareholders with a high degree of confidence is a different matter altogether. Until the SPV structure and CLN outcome are fully known, there are still several key variables that can materially affect shareholder value. How exactly does cash flow through the SPV? What costs are attached to the structure? How will the CLN be repaid? Will there be any conversion element? Will a carve-out arrangement be agreed? How much of the early cash flow is allocated to note holders? What is the timeline for debt reduction? These are not minor details. They can make a difference of many millions of dollars over the life of the project and are exactly the kind of issues institutional investors, banks and analysts need clarity on before they can model future cash flows with confidence. The market can broadly value Mako today, but it still cannot accurately value what ultimately reaches EME shareholders. I agree a CLN deal is key here.