Member Info for Mitriti

Happy you re still on board Sir Mark🫡

😂 His toilet’s gonna get stuck flushing shares like that 🚽

There’s a good chance SirMark is currently exiting, Chesh... still a few million shares to go haha

Personally I think the first rerate probably comes as a relief move once CLN/SPV approval clarity is on paper. The bigger fundamental rerate likely comes through Q1/Q2/Q3 2027 if execution stays on track toward first gas. Imo

Absolutely Blakie! Like you said, if meaningful news comes it’ll probably land overnight via Conrad first.

Technicals aside, I think this only really moves on meaningful news. But we’re now entering the June/July window where Conrad updates, approvals, SPV clarity and potentially CLN progress could all start landing.

Starting to feel like things might be lining up here... what do you guys think?

Got a gut feeling this could explode faster than people expect if a few bits of clarity suddenly land close together. Feels like we’re entering a pretty important window now... The pace since January just feels too deliberate to ignore when you start putting everything next to each other: settlement sorted, FID approved, JV funding clarified, contract awards flowing, execution moving forward etc. Doesn’t feel like management are blindly drifting toward October with the CLN situation hanging over everything.

Temporary CLN arrangement especially feels more like buying time to get the bigger pieces lined up first: approvals, GTA, SPV clarity and hopefully stronger long term CLN clarity after that. And that’s the thing... management also know they can’t leave it too late. Bringing news is one thing,but the market also needs time to absorb/analyse it properly and rerate the story before the CLN becomes the dominant narrative again later in the year. Feels like they must be very aware the real window here isn’t actually that huge anymore.

Maybe I’m wrong,but with liquidity this small this thing could honestly go crazy very quickly. Just my gut feeling tbh 🤞🙂 weekend all 👍

30 Jan RNS:

“without future direct cash call obligations”

3 March RNS:

“fully funded at joint venture level”

14 April RNS:

“adequate working capital for a minimum of 18 months”

Fully funded at JV level yes, but EME itself still has normal AIM corporate costs/debt obligations. Big difference now is they are no longer directly funding Mako capex the way they used to. Market probably waiting for approvals + full SPV clarity before properly rerating imo.

Thanks Blakie! For some people there’s always a problem for every solution🙄😅

True Pied 😄 but without signatures it still wasn’t fully formalised. Clearly progressing step by step now. Gla

Agree with Stella. Both sides are probably mixing up different things here.

Richie, you're looking more at gross economic exposure, which is fair enough as a rough starting point. If CRD’s 22.875% is generating ~US$70-75m revenues, then EME’s 8.5% exposure obviously scales much higher than just a few million. I just think the jump from there straight to “EME receives US$25m+ yearly cash” is probably too simplistic as financing repayments and distribution mechanics still matter.

Pied is probably closer on early post-financing distributions around 2028 while repayments are still running. But where I think he keeps missing the bigger picture is using that early repayment phase almost as if it defines the full project value. I keep repeating myself here but markets usually rerate these assets during the de-risking/buildout phase, not once every financing deduction has disappeared. Approvals, construction progress, first gas visibility and long-life contracted cashflows all start getting priced in beforehand.

Reality is probably somewhere in the middle tbh. Early years may only mean a few million net annually to EME, but a carried producing gas asset with long-life cashflows still likely deserves a much higher valuation than where we sit today if execution keeps progressing.

Personally I still think something like a £25m-60m valuation during the de-risking/build phase is very possible if approvals/build continue progressing well, and potentially £60m-120m+ if first gas visibility becomes strong towards 2027. To me that simply reflects the disconnect between the current valuation and what the underlying project value could become if execution keeps delivering. That roughly translates into somewhere around 0.10p-0.25p first, and possibly 0.25p-0.50p+ later on. DYOR of course 🙂

After all the survival concerns and doomsday scenarios, we’ve now arrived at: debt gets repaid, infrastructure gets built, Mako produces gas and EME receives cashflow after all. I can see you’re feeling quite positive these days Pied ;-)

Hard to disagree with that Blakie! If someone genuinely believed the downside scenarios were overwhelmingly likely, staying invested here would make very little sense.

I think both views are a bit too extreme. The AI-generated numbers clearly simplify things too much, but Pied’s view also feels far too static for a project that has materially de-risked over the past months. MrH_m is probably right with the “bottom drawer” approach here. The reality likely becomes much clearer over the coming months as the remaining pieces fall into place and the market gets a better sense of where this is heading.

I also suspect many expecting an instant fortune or overnight rerate will probably give up long before the real development rerating phase fully plays out. These kinds of projects often spend a long time being ignored, until sentiment and perception eventually shifts quite rapidly once progress becomes harder to ignore. So in my opinion, reducing Mako purely to a heavily discounted “future net cash received” calculation misses the broader picture somewhat. GLA.

Fair points, and I agree the MST note is a useful reference for understanding the current modelling assumptions. But I think it’s important to distinguish between a modelled value based on assumptions today and what the asset is actually worth once it is fully de-risked and properly priced by the market. The MST valuation is still based on inputs that are not fully locked in yet… gas pricing assumptions, final transport arrangements, exact cashflow routing and timing, and broader execution risk. Even in that note, the cashflows are still risked and rely on a number of forward assumptions, which by definition means the outcome is still partially modelled, not fully priced. What matters more, in my view, is where we are in the process. We now have FID, funding in place, development underway and first gas targeted for 2027. The project has effectively moved from exploration risk to execution, and historically that is where rerating tends to begin rather than end. It’s also worth noting that broker models don’t set the price… transactions do. Any farm-out, corporate action or potential buyout would provide a real market benchmark rather than a spreadsheet outcome, and those are typically based on strategic value and forward cashflows, not just conservative base case assumptions. So while I understand the $13–15m type figures being discussed from a purely modelled standpoint today, I’d be cautious about treating those as a ceiling. They reflect where the asset is being valued under uncertainty, not where it will be priced once that uncertainty is removed. With GTA, approvals and full cashflow visibility approaching, we’re getting very close to the point where the remaining variables can be locked in and the market can move from guessing to pricing, and that for me is the keey shift to watch here.

Fair point… it wouldn’t be unusual to see a small minority bought out at some stage. But timing and valuation are everything. If anything were to happen now, before the project is fully modelable and before the market has properly priced in the cashflows, there’s a real risk that value is being transferred to the buyer rather than existing shareholders.

With GTA, approvals and cashflow visibility all approaching, it feels a bit early to be talking about exit scenarios.

Personally, I’d rather see the asset fully de risked and properly valued first… then any potential corporate action can be judged on its merits.

Let’s not focus on rumours... they remain rumours until officially confirmed as facts. What is interesting about the recent rumour is not the rumours themselves, but the fact they are starting to appear at this stage. It suggests the asset is beginning to attract attention as it moves closer to being fully de risked. The real question is when we start to see meaningful movement, and which news will finally wake the market up. We are now very close to the point where Mako and EME become fully modelable.

Once the GTA is signed, approvals are in place and the cashflow route to EME is clearly defined, analysts can finally plug in the remaining variables; transport costs, net economics and timing of payments. At that point this is no longer “potential value”… it becomes a DCF driven valuation, and the market stops guessing and starts pricing. I believe that is when pricing really starts in earnest.

Interested to hear what others think will be the real trigger for movement here.

You should definitely look into AI and space infrastructure as well mate. The way I see it, over the next decade it could become very similar to how the internet first needed massive infrastructure buildout before the real long-term winners emerged. In my opinion, a lot of the future compounders will be found there, not necessarily in random AI software names everyone is currently chasing, but that’s another discussion altogether haha. EME remains my highest conviction position here for now.

Same here mate. Whenever I’m capable of building this position stronger, I do. I personally see EME as my number one accumulator at these levels.

At the same time I’m also building positions in things like AI and space infrastructure, because I believe those will be some of the biggest capital flows of the next 10 years and where long-term compounding will happen.

But honestly, I see EME as the potential accelerator that could help supercharge that whole process if Mako continues progressing the way it currently is.