Member Info for Mitriti

I have to admit that after the settlement and everything achieved since then, I thought we would be trading a lot higher by now. But I’m still very confident this lands eventually. The maths and project fundamentals speak for themselves in my opinion.

Maybe it won’t happen in a straight line and probably many people will get discouraged or give up along the road towards first gas, especially on AIM, but patience is usually what gets rewarded in these kinds of development stories once the market fully gains confidence and larger money starts paying attention.

I agree mate, what’s not to like about the direction of the story now compared to where we were before. We’ll meet each other over there when we get there, no doubt :) Good luck mate!

Thanks mate! I just think it’s important that newer investors here make realistic judgments before investing rather than getting carried away by random AI-generated numbers. The upside potential is clearly there in my opinion, but people should understand this is more likely a gradual de-risking and rerating story rather than some overnight 10p move.

What does seem encouraging though is that more people are finally starting to realise the Mako project is genuinely moving forward now.

Those AI-generated “10p+” targets honestly look completely unrealistic to me and seem based on very simplistic algorithm-style calculations that ignore timelines, discounting, debt, AIM dilution risk and how markets actually price development projects. That said, I also think the market is still massively underestimating what Mako could ultimately mean for EME. Very rough and simplified example: if Mako eventually supports a project valuation in the $300m–$500m range once fully de-risked and producing, then EME’s retained 8.5% economic exposure could theoretically represent $25m–$42m of underlying value over time before applying discounts, debt considerations and timelines. Even after heavy discounting, that still sits far above the current market cap.

I also think people should be careful not to assume all value suddenly appears overnight in Q2/Q3. This is more likely a gradual de-risking and rerating story as approvals land, the structure finalises, development progresses and the market gains confidence towards first gas targeted for 2027.

What makes this more interesting to me is that before the withdrawal dispute, EME already traded around 0.17p purely on expectations of a positive outcome and project progress. Today the situation is arguably far stronger than it was back then: dispute resolved, FID achieved, development funded, retained economic participation, no direct future development cash calls, staged incoming consideration and a much clearer route to first gas.

Obviously AIM never prices things perfectly and timelines still matter, but at 0.06p the disconnect still looks extraordinary to me if execution continues. GLA.

Differing views are healthy. I just think you’re still framing this through an extremely bearish lens despite the fundamental de-risking that has already happened.Pricing aside, calling it just a ‘can kick’ ignores how much the situation has fundamentally changed.

Pied, fine if you want to wait for fully de-risked cash flows before valuing it but you’ll miss the rerate entirely. "Time will tell” indeed. You were saying the same before the settlement too. That worked out well.

Market still doesn’t seem to fully grasp that this is actually happening now, though sentiment does feel like it’s starting to shift. Operationally Mako is clearly moving forward. Could be the beginning of a very long rerate towards first gas. Very hard to doubt at this stage that this project eventually gets over the line. GLA!

Probably just a bit of sell the news on Conrad today rather than anything fundamentally negative. FID confirmed, fully funded, first gas still targeting Q4 2027 and development activity clearly progressing. Didn’t really see anything alarming in the update personally.

feels supportive for EME longer term given Mako keeps moving further into real development rather than just being a paper project..

The value’s clearly there already, it’s just not being priced yet. Once approvals/completion land, that should start to change...won’t need to wait until 2027 for that.

Fyi

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03081261-6A1321464&v=undefined.pdf

No one’s chasing, everyone’s just waiting, for now...

I’m quite relaxed too to be honest. For me it’s no longer a question of what or how, but when. Fundamentals are much stronger than six months ago and the project is largely de-risked, it’s just the per-share translation that hasn’t caught up yet, which is where the discount sits in my view. Maybe the market waits until the first farm-out payment (Q3) to really move, when the structure and cash flow via the SPV become more visible and everything becomes easier to model. That would likely open the door for larger institutional money.

On the other hand, AIM doesn’t wait for perfect clarity. Once there’s enough confidence to start pricing things properly, it can move quickly. So yes, it’s a waiting game, but I’m confident the rerate comes before everything is fully modelled.

Timing uncertain, direction less so.

About respect?🫣😅

And at these levels I’m happy to add too.. Still see this as an opportunity, not a concern.

The CLN is not an immediate dilution issue at current prices, but it does create uncertainty around the fully diluted share count and how cash ultimately flows through to EME. I think that uncertainty is what’s holding things back at the moment. It’s not so much the dilution itself, but the difficulty in translating the asset value into a clean per-share valuation. Until that becomes clearer, the market tends to apply a discount, even if the underlying project is largely de-risked.

Patience is required here, but I don’t think the market is missing the story.. it’s waiting to be able to price it properly. That’s how I see it.

I understand the frustration when the share price drifts back and people focus on the short-term moves around 0.07–0.08, but if you step back, the bigger picture has changed significantly over the past months.

Most of the major de-risking steps are now in place. The settlement removed the dispute and overhang, the SHA and SPV structure defined Empyrean’s participation, FID moved Mako into fully funded development with a clear path to first gas in Q4 2027, and the recent CLN amendment has eased near-term financial pressure.

So for me, the question is no longer whether the project works... That part is largely addressed.

The real question is: when can analysts assign a clean, per-share valuation with confidence rather than relying on assumptions?

We know EME is entitled to 8.5% of all cash flows to WNEL, including farm-out consideration and future gas revenues, but there is still a gap between understanding that in principle and being able to model it cleanly in terms of structure, timing and per-share impact. The remaining uncertainty around that translation, combined with the impact of the CLN, is where I think the current discount comes from.

And it’s not just about being able to model it. Larger capital needs confidence in how that value ultimately reaches shareholders before it can step in at scale.

As the company continues to move forward without further issues and the project progresses as planned, that confidence should build naturally.

We have been above 0.15 before, when the story was more uncertain but expectations were higher. Now the risk is lower, but the structure is more complex, and that seems to be where the disconnect lies.

The market does not usually wait for first gas to start pricing value, but it does tend to wait for enough clarity to quantify that value. So yes, patience is required, and I am prepared to hold through this year and beyond if needed. But I do not see this as dead time. This is the phase where the story needs to become modelable and investable.

I’d expect the rerating to develop from here in stages, with sharper moves as key uncertainties are removed, rather than only occurring at first gas.

Agreed. If that selling was genuine, price should be breaking down much faster. Holding here suggests absorption and if anything, someone’s likely accumulating without pushing the price against themselves.

Low liquidity cuts both ways.

The fact size can’t be moved easily doesn’t mean there’s no demand — it often means there’s very little free float.

This morning looks more like a liquidity sweep than a lack of buyers.

Price dropped fast, but then held — that’s usually absorption, not weakness.

Agreed all. Mako alone justifies a rerate. Read it the same way from the RNS; anything on top would only strengthen the story. Pure upside 👍

Agreed all. Mako alone justifies a rerate. Read it the same way from the RNS; anything on top would only strengthen the story. Pure upside 👍

Short term I’d expect continuation. The 0.05–0.06 base has clearly flipped to support, so that now looks like a solid foundation.

Near term I’m looking at 0.10–0.12 as the first test, and if that breaks and holds, the path towards 0.15 (previous holder supply) opens up quite quickly. Medium term, assuming SPV/WNEL completion and approvals come through, a move into the ~0.20–0.30 range looks realistic as the market starts pricing actual Mako-linked cash flows rather than just removing risk.

Looking further out, with first gas targeted around early 2027, the market will start pricing that in well ahead of time. If execution stays on track, I’d expect the share price to be significantly higher by then, potentially moving into the 0.50–1.00 range over time as the story shifts fully towards cash flow.

Now that a large part of the risk has been taken out, this feels like the point where the real re-rating phase begins.

Nothing goes in a straight line of course.

GLA!