Member Info for Mitriti

GoBig, that's correct, we don’t have an exact gas sales figure yet, which is why estimates still sit in ranges. That’s normal pre-approval.

Once the Indonesian approvals are in place, volumes, duration and EME’s 8.5% share can be modelled with far more confidence. That’s typically the point where analysts start running proper numbers and a broader investor base begins to take interest. Exact figures follow later around FID and final GSAs.

Pied the flaw in your argument is assuming today’s valuation depends on solving the debt in full. AIM doesn’t wait for debt-free balance sheets...it rerates on certainty, optionality and removal of existential risk. That risk was binary pre-settlement and is now gone. Once approvals land and lender terms are clarified, EME moves from distressed optionality to financeable asset exposure. At that point the equity is no longer priced on 2037 cash flows, but on what the asset can be refinanced or sold for.

That is why approval is the catalyst and why the current market cap is the anomaly, not the upside case.

Exactly GoBig. With the main issue resolved, it makes sense for all parties to move quickly to finalise approvals and payments.

We’ve already been through the hardest part, Blakie. From here it's the easy part!

Agree it's a huge opportunity but I don’t see this as a purely long-term hold. The real catalyst is the upcoming approvals and associated RNS flow in the coming weeks, not first gas in 2027/28. That’s where the re-rating starts, in my opinion.

Fair points. The debate really comes down to timing and financing structure — not whether the project has value.

Approvals within weeks, in my view Blakie

On government take, Indonesia PSCs typically end up around 55–65% all-in (tax + state share), depending on final fiscal terms.

On carry: assuming first gas around 2027/early 2028, it’s reasonable that Nations’ carry is largely cleared by 2029, possibly earlier if ramp-up and pricing are favourable.

That still leaves EME with meaningful net cash flow versus today’s ~£5m market cap which is what the market is waiting to see confirmed.

There’s a distinction to make between project value and EME’s revenue share.

The project itself may have multi-billion dollar gross gas sales over its life, but EME’s exposure is an 8.5% revenue interest, translating to an estimated $80–120m of gross revenue over time.

For a ~£5m market cap company, that valuation gap only really starts to close once approvals are confirmed.

I'm holding too...it is frustrating but just part of the game...updates will come

Beyond doubt Aklee

Topped up a little today. As key approvals approach, it’s reasonable to expect a broader investor base to emerge, first specialist AIM/energy funds, then potentially larger institutions once regulatory milestones are cleared.

It’s a healthy baby😁

Early shake-out, weak hands cleared, buyers stepped back in.

Higher lows forming and price rebuilding steadily.

Exactly what you want to see after a strong RNS.

GLA 👍

Some consolidation and profit-taking is normal, just post-RNS consolidation...

Fundamentals unchanged, approvals remain the next key catalyst.

Agree MrH_m👍

To put the project and contract value into perspective:

The Mako/Duyung gas project is estimated to have a gross life-of-field value of around $3–4bn. After allowing for capex, opex and PSC terms, the project’s net present value (100%) is estimated at approximately $1–1.5bn.

Empyrean holds a contractually agreed 8.5% revenue interest through to 2037+, which translates into an estimated $80–120m contract value over the life of the project.

Against a current market capitalisation of roughly £5m, this implies a valuation gap of around 10/15x on contract value alone. That gap reflects the timing of cashh flows, remaining regulatory approvals and historic balance-sheet risk, rather than the underlying scale of the asset.

With further approvals expected in the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see how the market starts to recognise that gap and gradually unlock value. GLA!

PJ

Cash timing hasn’t changed, the risk profile has.

That’s what the market is trading.

Normal Day-1 behaviour after a catalyst.

Early spike, profit-taking, churning and consolidation above prior close.

Key is no flush and holding the 0.089–0.095 area.

Healthy digestion before any next leg.

Strong post and well laid out👌

Agree with this take MrH_m. 0.17p feels like the sentiment reset now that existential risk is gone, but the real rerate is milestone-driven.

As lender/CLN clarity (no dilution), final settlement/SPV, FID & Indonesian approvals land, risk keeps coming out step by step. Once Nations’ first cash is actually received and build visibly starts, the market stops pricing survival and starts pricing delivery.

That’s why this doesn’t feel like a one-day spike. A staged move from ~0.17p towards 0.3–0.4p over the next 12 months looks entirely reasonable, with further upside as we move towards gas.

Bottom line: Friday was the key unlock... the value realisation plays out over milestones, not hours. Thanks👍

MrH_m — quick question.

With the RNS removing the existential risk, how do you see the SP reacting to the next approval milestones (lender / CPs / funding)?

Step-by-step re-rate, or mostly front-loaded?

And further out, as gas development moves into late 2026 / early 2027, do you expect the market to value EME meaningfully above ~0.25p on asset fundamentals rather than event relief?

Interested in your milestone-based view.

Interesting question Blakie.

With the settlement in place and Mako fully funded, lenders’ risk profile has clearly improved.

Any refinancing or terms revision now should come on much better footing for EME.

Another overhang gradually disappearing, in my view.