happysparrow, yes that's the theory .So why wasn't the $5million paid off just now to replace a facility which decimates the share price ? SAVP are a long way off being cash rich imo. Hopefully by 2021 if everything goes to plan but thats a big if imo. That's why the share price has languished for so long.
I'm certainly no genius and have lost on SAVP overall but I'll give you my views fwiw.
If you forget all the hype spouted by others on here , brokers and AK, the reality has been SAVP has been cash strapped over the past few years and loaded with bondholders who have had their shares converted to equity and have just dumped the shares. This is the sole consideration which we , as shareholders , have overlooked.
Going forward , If you ignore the hype of potential cashflows , right now savp just does not have enough cash to even repay the 5 million loan without diluting the shares further. They don't have the funds to develop Niger. These are plain facts and why the shares are languishing at 17p. AK takes his huge salary in the meantime and shareholders get royally screwed.
As for brokers, they are just sharks who roll out the same story as the company whilst totally ignoring the facts about cashflow.
Until, the actual cashflows from the Seven deal , materialise in the balance sheet , its hard to see much progress in the share price . Any cash flow this year will get eaten up in costs and fees and development costs so 2020 is a write off imo. I can see SAVP raising money this year, unless they can get a farm in for Niger, but in all honesty , I don't think that anyone will farm into Niger at this stage when all they have done is drill successful wells which were all low lying fruit.
Personally , I'm not buying at 17p .I'd prefer to take the risk it will drift lower or wait till they raise some capital which of course will be at the expense of shareholders.
The lessons I've learnt through SAVP for the future and investing in any other small oil or mining stocks....forget the hype and follow the cash .Moreover , if there are bondholders holding equity, just stay well away from investing in the equity or sell any spikes. As an example, I've traded and invested in hur very well over the past year using such parameters.
Well, I will have to disagree with that . Almost 50% in hands of Parkin and other directors who have got ****ed off with the low valuation. Since they prolonged the talks another month it suggest they aren't far away from getting an agreed bid so I'm expecting one today at anywhere between 310-340p. Not long to wait unless, they extend them again.
Prior to the bid , CLG was trading at 240....well below highs of 400p. If there had been no bid for CLG and with the Conservatives winning the election , CLG would likely be trading at around 270p at least imo. I n that respect, any bid around 300p is ridiculous cheap and as you say, many institutions paid well over 3 quid. I'd be surprised if any bid came in below 320p and I think are fair price would most likely be 340p. Anything below those figures will likely be rejected or induce other private equities to bid . I think CLG is a strong buy at these levels with downside limited to 270 and possible upside to 340p. Needless to say, I'm buying at current levels.
Can't see much of a dip myself. Greggs have a trading statement on the 8th January . there must be a very chance of them raising guidance once again with all the longer hour openings at a strong time of the year. I'm hoping it can get closer to 25 quid.
You seem a nice fellow but lets be honest, you have been ramping bullishly on savp for as long as I can remember and so far been totally wrong.
To answer your point about great rns's...yes we've had these bullish rns's..seven completion and now a new cpr and guess what? the share price has fallen...get real. That's how I substantiate my opinion. There's no mind bobbling rns due in the next few months, so I expect the sellers to gain the upper hand. Perhaps, you should think to yourself why savp is trading at 21p and not way above 35p which you and so many had now doubt expected with all this 'great news'. Anyhow, I know, you have invested a lot in this share so I'd be delighted to be proved wrong and for 17p never to reached again. Good Luck with that.
Grow up mate.Am not naive ever to think I can talk up my book. I'm more interested in improving my entries and exits and looking at the bigger picture to take advantage the next time similar situations occur.Sadly, on AIM , similar situations occur all to often and not enough investors want to delve deeply enough into what may be happening. To just think savp is a great company is naive and to accept 50% swings in the share price while holding throughout and not trading these swings is frankly absurd.
In answer most of those institutions paid 35p for their shares so I'd suggest its been a pretty poor investment for them to date. Approx 40% lower.
Institutions tend to look at the long term picture and as I said, SAVP's future does appear bright but there is execution risk here esp. while there cash levels are so low and Seven sellers dampen the share price imo. Lets face it, The big deal was meant to be the SEVEN completion and the share price has fallen despite all the bullish talk from investors, AK and analysts. I fully expect to pick up a holding closer to 17p as the news flow dries up in the coming months.
I had 3 million shares at one point and yes , I was certainly bullish at over 30p and buying up to 35p. Fortunately by averaging down and selling on spikes my overall loss was not too bad. I've been trading for the past 19 years and investing in size for the past 8 years and I like to learn from my mistakes.
What I've learnt from this SAVP position is in future is to pay the biggest attention to convertible bonds , cash position of the company , shareholdings of acquired entitites and lock ins. These things are way more important than how good the company is and what amazing prospects it might have. As shareholders, we are totally stuffed if we ignore such things
and most of us do. While I've been invested in SAVP its fluctuated from 38p to 12p and still languishes at 21p .In reality , its been a waste of time but at a good learning curve. Next time, I'll be a lot wiser.
Good luck to everyone holding.. The future for SAVP does seem very good but it may take longer than many are hoping imo.
Too many bulls om here now. I've sold up a few weeks ago for an overall loss but much reduced thanks to the last big spike. The reality is the deal is done but we have new stakeholders who are creating a massive overhang on the price despite AK saying they are not selling. Furthermore, there is an execution risk here before the money rolls in and the company is indebted to the tune of about $400mill .Dynamics of 129 million rolling in every year are good but there are costs and exploration costs. All in all, I expect a healthy retracement from here before buying back in.
Tend to agree with your posts. In the longer term, CKHH selling down his stake is good news and hopefully in time, HCM will have some bid premium which has been totally absent so far.
Problem is , Mr Market will be focusing on how much more of his stake he will want to sell when the lock in expires when HCM floats in HK. Having made killing when WCC floated from aim to HK a few years back, I fully expect HCM to be given a low valuation initially on HK as they will get squeezed on price (as they were on nasdaq) with a big potential overhang. I think CKHH have also handled this sale really poorly but it will probably prove to be nice buying back in opportunity for me , albeit, not at the this price.
Hutchinson clearly screwed the investment case for a while here. The problem being that they have now created a big overhang going forward for the rest of their stake which is over 52%. They are only locked in for 3 months. I'm surprised they haven't said they will stay invested for 12 months but with HK listing a possibility sometimes later in the year, maybe that's when they want to sell more. Hard to see the HK listing going ahead at any half decent price now .I'd expect the shares here to keep drifting off even after the MS shares have been placed.