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I understand. It's certainly in the category of positive news. 🙂
Thanks, OT!
Can you elaborate what that means? £50m sounds like a lot. How does SAE benefit here?
😅
.. when it's quiet and no wind is blowing. Only the moon shines on me as I open the app on my phone where I can track the current energy consumption of our house. In the darkness I look at some text on the phone saying "0 Watts", the energy produced by our photovoltaic installation on the roof right now and wonder.. wouldn't it be nice if we had something that could charge this expensive battery in my basement. I wish I had a tidal stream turbine.
No, I'm not drunk. Just bored. Good night guys.
I stick to my assumption that, comparatively speaking, nobody is trading this stock. Whenever I see day traders in here it kinde feels like I'm staring at that one guy at the train station that is talking to himself.
This stock is flying under the radar. Not because it's a hidden gem but because it's a struggling company. Maybe, just maybe it will turn around but as for now.. nobody, and by that I mean high volume long term investors and not some pocket change traders (no offense), is looking at this stock.
It's just us long term holders who where something enough to not get out and a few daytraders.
Just to clarify: not complaining about day traders.. but I'm just pretty sure that there's just nit enough eyes ok this stock to really talk on that level.
And it'll be more soon!
Don't wanna give any advice except the obvious one: don't risk what you are not willing to lose.
But let's see. Chances are good for you to see some green this year. 🤞
10 years in and your average is 2.47? That's commitment. I entered much later and my average is around 4.5p iirc. I just don't dare to invest more at this point. Then again.. maybe now is the best time..
Since IPO? What is your average? Did you ever average down? I find it hard to believe that we'll see 100p anytime soon as it would mean SAE had a valuation of £1B.
I don't recommend to simply pour more money in. I'm just saying.. today even 10p, although much more realistic, may take a while to get there.
I wish I could disagree Strangy, but it's hard to do so. Yes, it appears that the company was able to make a turn, but it's still a ton of open questions which simply haven't been answered for too long now.
Maybe this fades if the company value goes up over time but until then I'll remain nervous.
One thing has to be said though: even though all the uncertainty I do believe that the company is currently undervalued. SAE could cover almost their entire debt with Uskmouth and they are generating money with MeyGen. On paper the company appears in debt with £50m in debt, but Uskmouth is an asset that is currently not considered by the market if you ask me.
That being said, given two CfDs, MeyGen and the fact that they probably are only £10m in debt, if Usk was accounted for, SAE might be in a better position than what's currently reflected in share price.
I give SAE a solid 2.5p as a gut feeling 🤪
With the question remaining: How will SAE finance the next MeyGen phase because they WILL need money.
Horror scenario: bankruptcy in the end or somebody buying the company off the market for £20m leaving us stranded.
In Austria one can request insights into the annual financial statement of every company. Im sure that's the same in the UK?
It's not telling the whole story, but it could provide at least some insight
Thank you for posting their response.
What I don't get.. according to my math they are now somewhere near 15% in total. So what does 10% mean? Last year it has been ~7% and this year around ~8% or were my calculations just wrong?
Idk how I feel about this.
Yes, I certainly want management to get a share.. 10% would certainly suffice.. and what about the other employees? I sure hope that they allocated some options for the small guy as well and not just upper management.
Anyways.. I'd have felt much more of okay about this with a higher strike price or e.g. making conditions such as "build x% of MeyGen, get x% of your shares vested"...or better.. a higher strike price in order to consider us bag holders who are down -70, -90 or maybe even up to -99% ..
Thank you Strangy 😊
"Members have been recommended to grant planning permission with conditions."
What conditions? 🤔
Thank you. Let's see if we get an answer..
Regarding MeyGen.. yes indeed. I admit that I can't wait to hear how SAE is going to pull this off. By that I mean if this can be financed without taking on too much additional debt.. that being said.. it'll also be insanely interesting to see how much a turbine will cost and, perhaps most importantly, whether or not and by how much the price falls.
All the studies and predictions need proof. If SAE can deliver, governmental funding will come much easier.
I keep getting torn apart. One day I get optimistic, on another something happens that raises doubts.
I think it's fair to be skeptical given how the past few years went..
It's always mixed signals. Selling ATES, winning CfD. Losing pellets, getting BESS. Seeing an insider buy, dilution follows..
SAE keeps playing with me 😅
I just hope that 2024 will finally be the year where we can recover and see a small but steady upward trend in valuation.
The next CfD round and whether or not we get a larger budget this time will also set the tone.
Is this latest news? The date states 5th December, 2023.
You're welcome.
Imo the most important thing here is that LCOE must not be the only metric to look at as it's simply not telling the full story.
Wind and solar have the disadvantage of being unpredictable and therefore require additional considerations. Considerations that aren't necessary for tidal and which justify a higher LCOE. LACE (levelized avoided cost of energy) must be taken into account as well.
From the report (https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AI-paper-tidal-stream-benefits-to-the-wider-energy-system-v1.12.pdf):
"The breakeven LCOE of tidal stream was found to be £49-55/MWh, depending on the capacity installed. Below this level, tidal stream offers cost benefits to the grid and will displace other renewables (for example offshore wind and biomass with CCS). Above this level, tidal stream adds cost to the energy system when compared to the cost-optimised scenario with no tidal stream."
and:
"How does this align with cost projections?
Arguably the main finding from this study is the £49-55/MWh breakeven tidal stream LCOE by 2050. While certain aspects of the tidal technology could warrant a cost premium (for example the high predictability), from a purely economic perspective this is the level that the tidal technology must reach to start to reduce the costs of the overall energy system.
So how achievable is this? The current LCOE of tidal stream is in the range £250-300/MWh, depending on the technology and site conditions. This is reflected by the administrative strike price set for AR4, at £211/MWh (2012 currency, £254 in 2021 currency). Greater insight will be gained when the successful bids are announced later this year. The sector has seen rapid cost decrease in the last five years, even without revenue support. LCOE in 2015 was estimated at $440/MWh by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) [11], equivalent to £380/MWh in 2021 currency. From 2015 to 2022 this implies a 33% LCOE reduction, a significant amount despite only a handful of turbine installations and one multi-MW array with government revenue support (Meygen, a 6MW project). Projections by Coles et al. estimate that tidal stream could dip below £150/MWh by 2030 if it keeps on its current cost reduction trajectory (assuming a learning rate of 17%) and the 124 MW of capacity that is currently eligible to bid into subsidy support auctions is installed [12]. Projections by ORE Catapult have estimated that tidal stream could reach £90/MWh by the time 1GW has been installed, which could be achieved by the early 2030s if upcoming projects can capitalise on the strong sector headwinds at present."