Member Info for mister_tidal

I rewatched the video on the website and noted that AW2 seems to use much less area than AW1 despite it being bigger in terms of capacity.

Am I getting this wrong?

Thats literally Better Call Saul, Season 2, Episode 9 (“Nailed”).

Not gonna lie.. we are getting closer to the point where I might become weak and buy more.

I shouldn't..

But 2.7GBX now? I'm almost hoping for it to get below 2.5 ..

I'm swinging between exactly that and "it's all over" on a weekly basis 😅

Had to post this here since trust in AI came up..

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/s/n0s7R7RnOL

Can't help but feel more and more obsolet as a human being.

A 10x for AMP could be possible, but probably only if a lot of things go really really well..

1. No brutal dilution at current levels which means

2. No crushing delays for AW1

3. Project funding for AW2, also not requiring dilution

4. Same for Mey BESS

I think with all that an (almost) 10x might be possible but there's a few hurdles along the way.

Then again.. this does not consider AW3 and MeyGen or additional projects at Uskmouth so.. there might be even more potential.

But I think the 2 to 3x from here, given AW1 works out, is a good start.

And let's wait what that will do to the position of the company. Once liquidity comes back. Once institutional investors can consider AMP as investment. This will look different once the company managed £100m market cap (5x).

If GBE would jump in, maybe after AW1, that would probably also go a long way to de-risk this whole enterprise..

Dangerous half-knowledge here:

Project funding is one thing, but the companie's operating expenses are separated from this.

I'm not sure if AMP can use this money to cover their own operating expenses with that money. At least not all of it.

AMP has other projects too, right? MeyGen, Mey BESS etc.. those are expenses that I think cannot be covered with the funds received for AW1?

I think the best news at this time, regarding AW1, is anything that is material to progress and assures us that there's no delay.

The margins are quite thin here. If there's a meaningful delay and the company has to raise money, dilution might hit us more than necessary compared to the scenario where everything goes to plan.

I think no news could be expected. But the closer October comes, the more I'd expect milestone updates that everything goes to plan. I mean.. I don't hink they will wait until the last day.

I'm hoping for: 1) Batteries delivered and 2) everything on track for October

With ~ £5m cash at hand and operational expenses of ~ £3m (report of 2025) our runway should be 6 to 12 months as of today.

Thats really a guesstimate because I have no idea how much they really burned.

So.. this means AMP should not require emergency funds, right? If AW1 can produce cash in time, AMP should not be forced to dilute shareholders out of necessity for survival.

That is.. as long as there's no significant delays that makes us run out of runway before take off.

This also means.. as long as dilution happens only to fund new projects, not purr survival, we can assume that this kind of dilution should be the "good kind" of dilution.

Just my two cents to bridge the silence.

Yeah. AI is a good tool to play with ideas and summaries but you must stay critical because these things have strong biases and simply are not able to think. At all. Even though it might appear as if but

https://chatgpt.com/share/69de5426-9da0-832f-a5da-2036c3ef12df

ChatGPT Response

------------------

I get why this feels like a buzzkill — but you’re jumping a bit too quickly from “more competition” to “no big upside.” That’s not what this actually implies.

Let’s straighten this out.

🧠 1️⃣ This news does NOT kill the upside

What it does say:

there are too many weak / speculative BESS projects

the system will filter them out

👉 That’s actually good if your company is real.

⚖️ 2️⃣ The key question didn’t change

Everything still comes down to:

Is Ampeak Energy a “real project developer” or not?

If YES:

they move up the queue

competition drops

assets become more valuable

👉 That is how you get multi-bagger outcomes

If NO:

then yes, the thesis breaks

Double-edged sword it really is..

That's indeed very interesting news.. from what I understand AW1 and AW2, perhaps Mey BESS, are in a good position for the time being.

Although I do not like the outlook on AW3 here and also the word "oversupply" here [1].

I mean.. this should not break "the thesis" but it looks like upside is potentially limited more than some of us, including me, might have been hoping for.

[1]: https://modoenergy.com/research/en/gb-grid-connections-reform-clean-power-2030-bess-battery-energy-storage-location-distribution-transmission-capacity-january-2025

I think every confirmation that says "everything on track" will give us a few % here. I mean.. from a pure psychological perspective that makes absolute sense. The company has a lot of debt and a long history of not getting into profitability. From an outside perspective, it may not appear as if AMP is a good investment. However, even though there were plenty of setbacks, saying the company achieved "nothing" would definitely be an over stretch. Let's not forget that pulling something off like MeyGen is a huge achievement nonetheless.

That said.. I can quite understand that nobody looks at AMP. Certainly no institutional investors. But once the numbers change, the perception will follow.

EBIDTA will be one thing.. another important metric will probably be ROE which is, according to simplywall.st, around 14% iirc in the industry.

I guess.. right now AMP is building the product, but that's only half the rent. Will EBIDTA land where it should? Is the return satisfying?

The tidal business has always been much more on the speculative side. BESS, however, feels more like a "true investment" in terms of one can more or less accurately estimate how much profit a company should make given a certain capacity. Leaving aside energy market volatily of course because you never know when e.g. the FIFA peave-price winning Orange Man starts another war somewhere.

All we can do now is wait until fall and see AMP either meet their guidance soon after in 2027 or see faith evaporate as something gets significantly delayed or goes wrong - which I don't hope for or think will happen. +fingers crossed+

Agree mcco.. the spread does not really help. I am optimisic however, that this will improve if AMP can deliver in fall. I am not watching it closely but I feel some days we have just a few hundred trades. That should change slowly as we get close to October. My knowledge is a bit limited at which point we might see institutional investors or something like GBE entering, but I figure that the perception of the company will be different once they have proven that they can pull off projects like this.

I work in a big company myself with a few thousand software developers. I'm always impressed by what so many people can accomplish and as much amazed by the underlying complexity of certain things. So.. the more I learned over the years the more I can appreciate the effort that goes into certain projects and I may carefully say at this point that Graham Reid really seems to have been a good thing that has happened to the company. In retrospect, many decisions turned out to be the right call. I remember the shock I felt when the tidal division was sold but today.. I believe this might have actually saved my initial investment and as things progressed, I came to realizet that Uskmouth must be the hidden gem here: Real estate bought years ago with a grid connection. And today we are heading towards the first 140 MW / 240MWh BESS installation there.

As you mentioned, it's not a short-term thing. In contrast to 2020 when it was all about tidal stream energy, today there's a very clear roadmap and things under construction as well as an existing market for a technology that is already affordable and covers a real-world use case: grid-stability and general power storage for renewables.

With that in mind: I don't mind that it's a long-term investment. At least this time I can already see the light at the end of the tunnel.

:)

Thanks TL!

I don't want to sound overly optimistic here but honestly.. even if things do not go very smoothly and the company misses their EBIDTA goals.. even then I'd still expect at the very least some moderate upside at this point.

To say that this is a "sure bet" is probably too far fetched but .. I mean.. I'm more scared of low liquidity rather than a complete loss of value for the company. Even if execution ends up being not what we wanted, the value still won't evaporate completely. This feels so asymmetric to me, I really have to stay disciplined and not add mindlessly to my position.

Oh and.. on another note, bye bye Orban! What a big win for the EU and Europe as a whole!

To fill this quiet time.. I'll post what I believe is quite a realistic picture for the next two years.

Anyone who looks at AMP right now should see that Uskmouth AW1 is the most important project at this point in time. Leaving aside MeyGen as this is a "maybe" multiplier, but a highly uncertain one.

So, with that in mind.. AW1 should be powered up around October (plus/minus). With fingers crossed.. if there are no delays or catastrophes, the share price should see a good re-rate just for the completion of AW1 - assuming we get the ~£9m EBITDA.

Apparently, 10x is a mid-level multiple for this sector. Can be higher, can be lower. So £9m x 10 = ~£90m enterprise value for AW1 once fully operational and de-risked.

Importantly, this is not something to simply add on top of today’s £20m market cap, because part of AW1 is already being priced in today on a risk-adjusted basis. The uplift comes from moving from “development probability” to “operational certainty”.

In other words: AW1 is likely the first major step in re-rating from current levels, rather than a pure additive jump.

But, of course, there is more.

AW2 would also provide ~£8 to £12m EBITDA. Same for Mey BESS which should bring ~£5 to £10m.

So..

AW1: £70m to £100m

AW2: £80m to £120m

Mey BESS: £50m to £100m

Low: ~£200m

Mid: ~£260m

High: ~£320m

From there we need to consider that these are enterprise values, and that project-level debt will sit against them. We also need to assume that future growth (AW2 / Mey) will not be purely equity-funded, so some dilution should be expected over time, which will affect per-share outcomes.

Putting this together, a realistic range could still imply:

Low: ~£50m equity value

Mid: ~£100m equity value

High: ~£150m equity value

Which translates roughly into:

~7.5p to ~22.5p per share (depending on dilution and execution)

Note: That's not the valuation of today of course, but a simplified forward scenario of what I think a reasonable 1–2 year outcome range could look like if execution goes broadly to plan and financing is achievable.

Also: This does not include AW3 or any other potential that Uskmouth may provide as a platform and also MeyGen is essentially left out here in terms of future potential.

12 MW capacity..

It's on!!! 😁

For Mey? That's been granted. Uskmouth: under construction

It's really interesting that they are being a bit louder about tidal recently. Graham Reid once said that they want to fully focus on delievering BESS. Obviously, tidal is still in their pipeline but.. it's still quite interesting that they are posting more often? Or is this just to fill the silence between AW1 millestones? Am I overthinking maybe?

Greetings OT!

Thanks for the link(s). Some kind of partnership or exclusive/premium connection would be a pretty interesting development. I assume they would not hesitate to release information on something material so, at this point, probably a bit more on the speculative side of things. Not sure: are there any storage alternative nearby? I dont know to be honest. If not, maybe we'll be hearing something from this corner at some point.