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I think SAE has potential to surge immensely, given some proper news on BESS and MeyGen/CfD. Until then, there's probably nothing they can make public that won't do much for the valuation at this point. It's all or nothing imo. If tidal has a future, the £5m valuation will easily turn into a £50m valuation which is, at this point, a 10x ...
I'd love to get some news too but frankly, I'd prefer bombastic news over meaningless news that do not do much for the valuation currently.
Can't get used to a market cap of just £5.5m - I'd everyone of us took a decent loan we could basically buy this company- if it really goes for £5.5m.
ATES was sold for £0.5 iirc.
According to simplywall.st, SAEs book value is £10m so that's a 2x ..
It's so weird.
Cute.
Stuttgart, Baader Bank and gettex have over 300% spread.
My friend has sent me this today:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy/s/xGbLGP2qXQ
I understand. Well, I agree that things turned around a bit for SAE, and for now they seem fine, but it's still really challenging for them. As you mentioned, market conditions aren't paritcularly easy as well right now.
That being said, and all positive development acknowledged, in the end any investor wants to see some returns and as it stands today, SAE has a long way to go here until it can prove to generate a positive cash-flow without relying on public money.
Anybody looking for an explanation of why the market cap is where it stands today, I'd say the explanation is rather evident.
Not saying things can't turn around drastically though.
Should tidal energy gain serious traction in the upcoming years, SAE is going to have good cards, given the experience they and the people at Proteus have by now. If I weren't already in, and wanted to bet on tidal stream energy, SAE is still the best bet imo.
Well, I didn't intend to be negative here. But it's. A fact that the company has a lot of debt and uncertainty in their baggage. That's a fair explanation for the current share price. Tidal remains expensive and until SAE can make a profit, some money will have to flow into repayments and interest. Whether or not there is hope for tidal remains speculation and the book-value market cap tells as that, at least for now, the market does not have a lot of confidence.
I believe that this could change once MeyGen and BESS are on track. But I only tried to explain the low market cap after all.
I have no price target for SAE but would love to hear some (with an explanation if possible).
The market cap sits at the book value because that's all you get if the company files for bankruptcy which it almost did. And now it's only alive because of the mercy (or desperation) of their creditors. Until they can prove that they can produce positive cash flow and avoid getting destroyed by their debt, there is little to no hope for SAE. On top of that, it is highly dependent on large sums being granted from the public. It's highly political on top of the fact that there is no prove that tidal is viable in larger scale and/or whether it can outperform other sources for energy.
We all "hope" that SAE will succeed here but there's so much uncertainty and debt.. without getting things in order no one would place anything else than play money on this stock right now.
Even if things started to look slightly better recently, there's still a long way to go.
Their debt is crippling and their market cap does not really allow to raise money either and now they need £100m (my guess) for the next phase.
So yeah, it's tough times for SAE.
Not trying to be negative here but I guess these are the facts.
It's actually pretty obvious why the share price is where it is today..
One positive update from SAE stating the next phase is on track and that they see a road towards lowering the price of energy created could send this stock to mount everest. That's not the moon but I wouldn't be sad nonetheless.
You're welcome :)
I think we may be confident that SAE can secure another contract this year given the fenced budget.
It would still be interesting what it would take to get the MWh price tag down again. It was around £175/MWh and according to the CATAPULT report, sub £100/MWh is possible at 1GW deployed. That's quiete a lot. Hence, I wonder, what is the missing piece here? What keeps the UK away from investing more?
If MeyGen wasn't able to convince policy makers so far, we must hope that the next phase can but will SAE/Proteus be able to do this with the CfD money they allocated so far?
I wish we got more guidance and information here..
"The Pot 2 budget of £105m includes an £8m monetary maximum for geothermal and ringfenced support (a monetary minimum) of £10m for tidal stream projects."
Wish this budget was larger though. I still don't get these half measures.
We need to see cost coming down but how if they hesitate with more significant monetary support?
Over £1b https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/news/ar6-budget-government-gives-major-backing-renewables-sector
Japan gets mentioned too. It's unfortunate that all this is taking forever as large investments dedicated to bring cost down never came. While the good news is that the Goto project gets expanded, it's not a significant capacity either.
Nobody here really cares about 1p or 2p.. we're in the 10p to 20p business
🤣😅
Size doesn't matter. Proximity does. And mass of course.
Sent by a friend living nearby
https://www.reddit.com/r/SimecAtlantisEnergy/s/mfWyxxP10e
Thank you 🙂 I posted it there 👍
400k are peanuts though 😅
Thank you, Timaeus!
May I or do you want to post this in the sub reddit r/SimecAtlantisEnergy?
SAE is surely not a stock that moves with the market.
I stick to the view that nobody is really watching this stock right now until they can either get their head above the water with anything not related to tidal stream energy, or, and that depends on governmental funding, with MryGen and the 21% they own at Proteus.
If the UK decided to throw in a lot more funding to get the price of tidal down by investing in supply chains and mass productions of turbines, SAE would probably sky rocket.
If this never happens, neither through governmental money nor private money which is unlikely atm anyways, then say bye to you investment.
That being said: until there's actual news that'll promise revenue s.t. SAE is able to survive, pay back debt and develop new projects, there's literally no reason to complain continuously because none of the fundamentals have substantially changed recently.
Wait another year.