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My bag is 317,600 shares at € 0.05 or 4.32 GBX
My budget for averaging down is certainly depleted..
Interesting.
Particularly because I wouldn't have thought that they need to apply for larger blades on turbines.
It's nice to see that they need only 40 turbines now instead of 61.. I really hope this also means the next phase is much cheaper than previously thought.
I hope all these change requests are going through without some letters from royal bird enthusiasts...
Finally, we saw insiders buy in on Simec Atlantis. It's been something I've been waiting for for quite some time for obvious reasons.
Seeing this purchase re-assures that the company is, at the very least, not at the brink of bankruptcy.
Sure, we do not know the true motive. Maybe it was the directors strong believe in an upcoming upward trend or the viability of a long term investment, or maybe it was just a small token for existing investors by putting their own money where their mouth is.
That being said, I'm a bit surprised that with BESS on its way, the second CfD in the bag and an insider buy still isn't enough to more the needle up a bit.
Not that a 2x of the current stock price would make a big difference to the losses I currently face with SAE, but it still surprises me that none or the recent news managed to get at least some retail traders in.
Maybe the missing piece is an institution to buy a larger chunk of shares? But is there any chance whatsoever for a risky investment like SAE?
Profitability.. is there currently an outlook for SAE to become profitable? Until tidal stream energy becomes cheaper, SAE won't really be able to make a (non-subsidized) profit. Is BESS the key here in the meantime?
What do you mean by price being held back?
That I can live with.
I do hope we see more buys. It's £41.400 if I did the math right?
I am not buying more because of this but it certainly hits an itch on my side..
Well, it wasn't me ^^
Word.
Greetings M66,
always nice to read your opinion on SAE.
Just have to disagree slightly regarding the marketing/social media aspect. Tidal isn't something that people really seem to have on the radar. There's not really a lot of talk about that technology, or at least not enough. Political decisions are the name of the game here. If politics keep focusing on solar and/or wind, maybe even nuclear, then what's going to happen with tidal?
Imo, these companies should beat the drum a little louder and sell the point a lot more, that tidal has the potential to become cheaper than nuclear energy, given larger deployments. This will never happen without political support and there is no political without support and/or pressure by the people. Who else is going to push the idea of tidal steam energy, if not the companies who work on this?
Well, I'd argue that it's unlcear what this actually means for SAE. If they spend as much as they make, it's a zero-sum game for the company. That means they cannot even repay debt which, in turn, means that the valuation of the company would rather go down than up.
If the company was able to make a profit and make more than they spend, they should be able to repay debt etc and, in the long run, increase the value of the company. In the end, this is pretty simple.
Do you get more than 2-3% return from the company? Buy bonds, and you get that return without risk. So.. if nothing that concerns the company points to positive returns, there's nothing to move the share price up.
Agree.
Someone needs to explain to me how, though. I mean, they need money. It's either dilution or debt.
Idk if there is any way for SAE to get to cheap money. Selling stock won't bring them far at this point.
Unfortunately, there is no analyst coverage for SAE. Is SAEs fair market valuation still "almost zero" after two contracts & BESS?
Imo any neutral to positive news about SAE is welcome. More attention doesn't hurt. Anything that sheds a positive light on the company is welcome. Even an article from proactive
You're welcome. As stated in the follow-up comment: These numbers are rough estimates and are likely not entirely accurate. But I hope, they are at least somewhere in the area of the actual numbers.
Note: The previous computations are armchair estimates and are probably wrong. A lot of assumptions have been made, but I hope, that these numbers are somewhere in the right ballpark.
Actually, quite a lot, but it's also a question about whether or not SAE makes some profit, or if it's a zero-sum play for them.
Anyway, if we assume a capacity factor of around 26%, that is,
6MW * 26% * 24h * 265 days ~ 13.7 GWh per year
The above is a computation based on some data that was available for a year, where SAE had all turbines (6MW) running for (almost) a whole year.
MeyGen
Phase 1: 6MW * 26% * 24h * 265 days ~ 13.7 GWh per year
Phase 2: 22MW * 26% * 24h * 265 days ~ 50.1 GWh per year
Phase 3: 34MW * 26% * 24h * 265 days ~ 77.4 GWh per year
In AR4 (the 22MW), SAE had a strike price around £175/MWh. So..
50,100 MWh/y * £175/MWh ~ £8.8m/y
77,400 MWh/y * £198/MWh ~£15.3m/y
In total, that is £24.1m per year from the CfD contracts, plus whatever they get for the original 6MW which is probably some £2.6m/y.
We look at a (theoretical) revenue of £26.7m per year for SAE.
How much these contracts are "worth", depends on different things. A CfD pays you the difference of what the market is willing to pay. So, if the market pays you £50/MWh, then the UK pays the missing £125/MWh to SAE. Hence the name "Contracts for Difference".
The important question is, imo, whether or not SAE is able to produce turbines even cheaper and lower operating costs. Because every £1/MWh they can safe, gets into their own pockets which is, in the end, profit for the company. It's subsidiesed, but it's a profit nonetheless, and it may (or may not) help SAE to produce additional turbines.
Perhaps even more important is the question of whether or not the UK decides to change the CfD schema slightly. They already see problems with the schema as other forms of energy struggle to compete (wind, solar). Inflation makes it hard for them to guarantee low prices. I assume it is the reason why this year's bid made by SAE is actually higher than last year's. We need tidal to become cheaper. Way below £100/MWh if it is ought to have a future.
But let's see. SAE needs more investments. Ideally from an institution or so. Their share price is completely destroyed which means they'll have a hard time getting their hands on cheap money and we all now, SAE does not need more debt.
Here we go.
Got another contract.
Let's hope this brings back some higher market cap for SAE.
MM's?
Hi!
I think getting the next CfD is what we should hope for. AFAIK any remaining budget is basically up for grabs to anybody who can deliver. I think I red something like this somewhere some time ago, but, first, I could be mistaken and, second, SAE probably won't be able go compete at those strike prices.
I'd expect SAE to get something in AR5 like last year. AR4 didn't help the company's valuation last year so AR5 isn't going to change that probably. At least not in the short term.
"However, in offshore wind, experts predict the auction will be undersubscribed as developers say they cannot deliver projects at the £44 per megawatt-hour strike price cap amidst at least 40% capex cost increases in the last year."
Imagine somebody came up with the idea to funnel the remaining budget towards tidal...
.. is something people in r/wallstreetbets would say but they can't because the stock has to have a market cap above $400m.
Anyways, I am bored. Waiting for a car repair.
In two weeks SAE should announce another secured CfD contract. Let's hope and not jinx it.
To recap.. SAE already got a contract in AR4 and is likely going go secure another in AR5.
What we don't know is how they'll fund this and, correct me if I'm wrong, we do not even know when SAE is going to reveal plans on how they'll fund the next phase etc.
What can we expect in Q3 and Q4 from the company and what would another contract in AR5 mean for the company?
Can we expect that it would drive up the share price? SAE requires money and, as we know, they can't practically get £100m by issuing new shares, can they?